In next-generation communications and networks, machine learning (ML) models are expected to deliver not only accurate predictions but also well-calibrated confidence scores that reflect the true likelihood of correct decisions. This paper studies the calibration performance of an ML-based outage predictor within a single-user, multi-resource allocation framework. We first establish key theoretical properties of this system's outage probability (OP) under perfect calibration. Importantly, we show that as the number of resources grows, the OP of a perfectly calibrated predictor approaches the expected output conditioned on it being below the classification threshold. In contrast, when only one resource is available, the system's OP equals the model's overall expected output. We then derive the OP conditions for a perfectly calibrated predictor. These findings guide the choice of the classification threshold to achieve a desired OP, helping system designers meet specific reliability requirements. We also demonstrate that post-processing calibration cannot improve the system's minimum achievable OP, as it does not introduce new information about future channel states. Additionally, we show that well-calibrated models are part of a broader class of predictors that necessarily improve OP. In particular, we establish a monotonicity condition that the accuracy-confidence function must satisfy for such improvement to occur. To demonstrate these theoretical properties, we conduct a rigorous simulation-based analysis using post-processing calibration techniques: Platt scaling and isotonic regression. As part of this framework, the predictor is trained using an outage loss function specifically designed for this system. Furthermore, this analysis is performed on Rayleigh fading channels with temporal correlation captured by Clarke's 2D model, which accounts for receiver mobility.

Estimating high-dimensional covariance matrices is a key task across many fields. This paper explores the theoretical limits of distributed covariance estimation in a feature-split setting, where communication between agents is constrained. Specifically, we study a scenario in which multiple agents each observe different components of i.i.d. samples drawn from a sub-Gaussian random vector. A central server seeks to estimate the complete covariance matrix using a limited number of bits communicated by each agent. We obtain a nearly tight minimax lower bound for covariance matrix estimation under operator norm and Frobenius norm. Our main technical tool is a novel generalization of the strong data processing inequality (SDPI), termed the Conditional Strong Data Processing Inequality (C-SDPI) coefficient, introduced in this work. The C-SDPI coefficient shares key properties such as tensorization with the conventional SDPI. Crucially, it quantifies the average contraction in a state-dependent channel and can be significantly lower than the worst-case SDPI coefficient over the state input. Utilizing the doubling trick of Geng-Nair and an operator Jensen inequality, we compute this coefficient for Gaussian mixture channels. We then employ it to establish minimax lower bounds on estimation error, capturing the trade-offs among sample size, communication cost, and data dimensionality. Building on this, we present a nearly optimal estimation protocol whose sample and communication requirements match the lower bounds up to logarithmic factors. Unlike much of the existing literature, our framework does not assume infinite samples or Gaussian distributions, making it broadly applicable. Finally, we extend our analysis to interactive protocols, showing interaction can significantly reduce communication requirements compared to non-interactive schemes.

We consider the problem of estimating a discrete distribution $p$ with support of size $K$ and provide both upper and lower bounds with high probability in KL divergence. We prove that in the worst case, for any estimator $\widehat{p}$, with probability at least $δ$, $\text{KL}(p \| \widehat{p}) \geq C\max\{K,\ln(K)\ln(1/δ) \}/n $, where $n$ is the sample size and $C > 0$ is a constant. We introduce a computationally efficient estimator $p^{\text{OTB}}$, based on Online to Batch conversion and suffix averaging, and show that with probability at least $1 - δ$ $\text{KL}(p \| \widehat{p}) \leq C(K\log(\log(K)) + \ln(K)\ln(1/δ)) /n$. Furthermore, we also show that with sufficiently many observations relative to $\log(1/δ)$, the maximum likelihood estimator $\bar{p}$ guarantees that with probability at least $1-δ$ $$ 1/6 χ^2(\bar{p}\|p) \leq 1/4 χ^2(p\|\bar{p}) \leq \text{KL}(p|\bar{p}) \leq C(K + \log(1/δ))/n\,, $$ where $χ^2$ denotes the $χ^2$-divergence.

Koopman operator theory enables linear analysis of nonlinear dynamical systems by lifting their evolution to infinite-dimensional function spaces. However, finite-dimensional approximations of Koopman and transfer (Frobenius--Perron) operators are prone to spectral pollution, introducing spurious eigenvalues that can compromise spectral computations. While recent advances have yielded provably convergent methods for Koopman operators, analogous tools for general transfer operators remain limited. In this paper, we present algorithms for computing spectral properties of transfer operators without spectral pollution, including extensions to the Hardy-Hilbert space. Case studies--ranging from families of Blaschke maps with known spectrum to a molecular dynamics model of protein folding--demonstrate the accuracy and flexibility of our approach. Notably, we demonstrate that spectral features can arise even when the corresponding eigenfunctions lie outside the chosen space, highlighting the functional-analytic subtleties in defining the "true" Koopman spectrum. Our methods offer robust tools for spectral estimation across a broad range of applications.

Combining randomized estimators in an ensemble, such as via random forests, has become a fundamental technique in modern data science, but can be computationally expensive. Furthermore, the mechanism by which this improves predictive performance is poorly understood. We address these issues in the context of sparse linear regression by proposing and analyzing an ensemble of greedy forward selection estimators that are randomized by feature subsampling -- at each iteration, the best feature is selected from within a random subset. We design a novel implementation based on dynamic programming that greatly improves its computational efficiency. Furthermore, we show via careful numerical experiments that our method can outperform popular methods such as lasso and elastic net across a wide range of settings. Next, contrary to prevailing belief that randomized ensembling is analogous to shrinkage, we show via numerical experiments that it can simultaneously reduce training error and degrees of freedom, thereby shifting the entire bias-variance trade-off curve of the base estimator. We prove this fact rigorously in the setting of orthogonal features, in which case, the ensemble estimator rescales the ordinary least squares coefficients with a two-parameter family of logistic weights, thereby enlarging the model search space. These results enhance our understanding of random forests and suggest that implicit regularization in general may have more complicated effects than explicit regularization.

Gaussian process regression techniques have been used in fluid mechanics for the reconstruction of flow fields from a reduction-of-dimension perspective. A main ingredient in this setting is the construction of adapted covariance functions, or kernels, to obtain such estimates. In this paper, we derive physics-informed kernels for simulating two-dimensional velocity fields of an incompressible (divergence-free) flow around aerodynamic profiles. These kernels allow to define Gaussian process priors satisfying the incompressibility condition and the prescribed boundary conditions along the profile in a continuous manner. Such physical and boundary constraints can be applied to any pre-defined scalar kernel in the proposed methodology, which is very general and can be implemented with high flexibility for a broad range of engineering applications. Its relevance and performances are illustrated by numerical simulations of flows around a cylinder and a NACA 0412 airfoil profile, for which no observation at the boundary is needed at all.

Robustness and resource-efficiency are two highly desirable properties for modern machine learning models. However, achieving them jointly remains a challenge. In this paper, we position high learning rates as a facilitator for simultaneously achieving robustness to spurious correlations and network compressibility. We demonstrate that large learning rates also produce desirable representation properties such as invariant feature utilization, class separation, and activation sparsity. Importantly, our findings indicate that large learning rates compare favorably to other hyperparameters and regularization methods, in consistently satisfying these properties in tandem. In addition to demonstrating the positive effect of large learning rates across diverse spurious correlation datasets, models, and optimizers, we also present strong evidence that the previously documented success of large learning rates in standard classification tasks is likely due to its effect on addressing hidden/rare spurious correlations in the training dataset.

Differential privacy has become a cornerstone in the development of privacy-preserving learning algorithms. This work addresses optimizing differentially private kernel learning within the empirical risk minimization (ERM) framework. We propose a novel differentially private kernel ERM algorithm based on random projection in the reproducing kernel Hilbert space using Gaussian processes. Our method achieves minimax-optimal excess risk for both the squared loss and Lipschitz-smooth convex loss functions under a local strong convexity condition. We further show that existing approaches based on alternative dimension reduction techniques, such as random Fourier feature mappings or $\ell_2$ regularization, yield suboptimal generalization performance. Our key theoretical contribution also includes the derivation of dimension-free generalization bounds for objective perturbation-based private linear ERM -- marking the first such result that does not rely on noisy gradient-based mechanisms. Additionally, we obtain sharper generalization bounds for existing differentially private kernel ERM algorithms. Empirical evaluations support our theoretical claims, demonstrating that random projection enables statistically efficient and optimally private kernel learning. These findings provide new insights into the design of differentially private algorithms and highlight the central role of dimension reduction in balancing privacy and utility.

This paper proposes a unified approach for designing stochastic optimization algorithms that robustly scale to the federated learning setting. Our work studies a class of Majorize-Minimization (MM) problems, which possesses a linearly parameterized family of majorizing surrogate functions. This framework encompasses (proximal) gradient-based algorithms for (regularized) smooth objectives, the Expectation Maximization algorithm, and many problems seen as variational surrogate MM. We show that our framework motivates a unifying algorithm called Stochastic Approximation Stochastic Surrogate MM (\SSMM), which includes previous stochastic MM procedures as special instances. We then extend \SSMM\ to the federated setting, while taking into consideration common bottlenecks such as data heterogeneity, partial participation, and communication constraints; this yields \QSMM. The originality of \QSMM\ is to learn locally and then aggregate information characterizing the \textit{surrogate majorizing function}, contrary to classical algorithms which learn and aggregate the \textit{original parameter}. Finally, to showcase the flexibility of this methodology beyond our theoretical setting, we use it to design an algorithm for computing optimal transport maps in the federated setting.

The matrix contextual bandit (CB), as an extension of the well-known multi-armed bandit, is a powerful framework that has been widely applied in sequential decision-making scenarios involving low-rank structure. In many real-world scenarios, such as online advertising and recommender systems, additional graph information often exists beyond the low-rank structure, that is, the similar relationships among users/items can be naturally captured through the connectivity among nodes in the corresponding graphs. However, existing matrix CB methods fail to explore such graph information, and thereby making them difficult to generate effective decision-making policies. T o fill in this void, we propose in this paper a novel matrix CB algorithmic framework that builds upon the classical upper confidence bound (UCB) framework. This new framework can effectively integrate both the low-rank structure and graph information in a unified manner. Specifically, it involves first solving a joint nuclear norm and matrix Laplacian regularization problem, followed by the implementation of a graph-based generalized linear version of the UCB algorithm. Rigorous theoretical analysis demonstrates that our procedure outperforms several popular alternatives in terms of cumulative regret bound, owing to the effective utilization of graph information. A series of synthetic and real-world data experiments are conducted to further illustrate the merits of our procedure.