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 Statistical Learning


MR-CLIP: Efficient Metadata-Guided Learning of MRI Contrast Representations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Accurate interpretation of Magnetic Resonance Imaging scans in clinical systems is based on a precise understanding of image contrast. This contrast is primarily governed by acquisition parameters, such as echo time and repetition time, which are stored in the DICOM metadata. To simplify contrast identification, broad labels such as T1-weighted or T2-weighted are commonly used, but these offer only a coarse approximation of the underlying acquisition settings. In many real-world datasets, such labels are entirely missing, leaving raw acquisition parameters as the only indicators of contrast. Adding to this challenge, the available metadata is often incomplete, noisy, or inconsistent. The lack of reliable and standardized metadata complicates tasks such as image interpretation, retrieval, and integration into clinical workflows. Furthermore, robust contrast-aware representations are essential to enable more advanced clinical applications, such as achieving modality-invariant representations and data harmonization. To address these challenges, we propose MR-CLIP, a multimodal contrastive learning framework that aligns MR images with their DICOM metadata to learn contrast-aware representations, without relying on manual labels. Trained on a diverse clinical dataset that spans various scanners and protocols, MR-CLIP captures contrast variations across acquisitions and within scans, enabling anatomy-invariant representations. We demonstrate its effectiveness in cross-modal retrieval and contrast classification, highlighting its scalability and potential for further clinical applications. The code and weights are publicly available at https://github.com/myigitavci/MR-CLIP.


EVINET: Towards Open-World Graph Learning via Evidential Reasoning Network

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Graph learning has been crucial to many real-world tasks, but they are often studied with a closed-world assumption, with all possible labels of data known a priori. To enable effective graph learning in an open and noisy environment, it is critical to inform the model users when the model makes a wrong prediction to in-distribution data of a known class, i.e., misclassification detection or when the model encounters out-of-distribution from novel classes, i.e., out-of-distribution detection. This paper introduces Evidential Reasoning Network (EVINET), a framework that addresses these two challenges by integrating Beta embedding within a subjective logic framework. EVINET includes two key modules: Dissonance Reasoning for misclassification detection and Vacuity Reasoning for out-of-distribution detection. Extensive experiments demonstrate that EVINET outperforms state-of-the-art methods across multiple metrics in the tasks of in-distribution classification, misclassification detection, and out-of-distribution detection. EVINET demonstrates the necessity of uncertainty estimation and logical reasoning for misclassification detection and out-of-distribution detection and paves the way for open-world graph learning. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/SSSKJ/EviNET.


MOSIC: Model-Agnostic Optimal Subgroup Identification with Multi-Constraint for Improved Reliability

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Current subgroup identification methods typically follow a two-step approach: first estimate conditional average treatment effects and then apply thresholding or rule-based procedures to define subgroups. While intuitive, this decoupled approach fails to incorporate key constraints essential for real-world clinical decision-making, such as subgroup size and propensity overlap. These constraints operate on fundamentally different axes than CATE estimation and are not naturally accommodated within existing frameworks, thereby limiting the practical applicability of these methods. We propose a unified optimization framework that directly solves the primal constrained optimization problem to identify optimal subgroups. Our key innovation is a reformulation of the constrained primal problem as an unconstrained differentiable min-max objective, solved via a gradient descent-ascent algorithm. We theoretically establish that our solution converges to a feasible and locally optimal solution. Unlike threshold-based CATE methods that apply constraints as post-hoc filters, our approach enforces them directly during optimization. The framework is model-agnostic, compatible with a wide range of CATE estimators, and extensible to additional constraints like cost limits or fairness criteria. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate its effectiveness in identifying high-benefit subgroups while maintaining better satisfaction of constraints.


Adapting to the Unknown: Robust Meta-Learning for Zero-Shot Financial Time Series Forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Financial time series forecasting in zero-shot settings is critical for investment decisions, especially during abrupt market regime shifts or in emerging markets with limited historical data. While Model-Agnostic Meta-Learning (MAML) approaches show promise, existing meta-task construction strategies often yield suboptimal performance for highly turbulent financial series. To address this, we propose a novel task-construction method that leverages learned embeddings for both meta task and also downstream predictions, enabling effective zero-shot meta-learning. Specifically, we use Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs) to softly cluster embeddings, constructing two complementary meta-task types: intra-cluster tasks and inter-cluster tasks. By assigning embeddings to multiple latent regimes probabilistically, GMMs enable richer, more diverse meta-learning. This dual approach ensures the model can quickly adapt to local patterns while simultaneously capturing invariant cross-series features. Furthermore, we enhance inter-cluster generalization through hard task mining, which identifies robust patterns across divergent market regimes. Our method was validated using real-world financial data from high-volatility periods and multiple international markets (including emerging markets). The results demonstrate significant out-performance over existing approaches and stronger generalization in zero-shot scenarios.


Explainable AI and Machine Learning for Exam-based Student Evaluation: Causal and Predictive Analysis of Socio-academic and Economic Factors

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Academic performance depends on a multivariable nexus of socio-academic and financial factors. This study investigates these influences to develop effective strategies for optimizing students' CGP A. To achieve this, we reviewed various literature to identify key influencing factors and constructed a initial hypothetical causal graph based on the findings. Additionally, an online survey was conducted, where 1,050 students participated, providing comprehensive data for analysis. Causal analysis validated the relationships among variables, offering deeper insights into their direct and indirect effects on CGP A. Regression models were implemented for CGP A prediction, while classification models categorized students based on performance levels. Ridge Regression demonstrated strong predictive accuracy, achieving a Mean Absolute Error of 0.12 and a Mean Squared Error of 0.023. Random Forest outperformed in classification, attaining an F1-score near perfection and an accuracy of 98.68%. The study culminated in the development of a web-based application that provides students with personalized insights, allowing them to predict academic performance, identify areas for improvement, and make informed decisions to enhance their outcomes. The education system in Bangladesh, characterized by its highly competitive structure, places substantial emphasis on academic achievements, particularly the Cumulative Grade Point Average (CGP A). In Bangladesh, students are under continuous pressure to achieve a high CGP A, which not only impacts their academic reputation but also has broader implications for their personal and social lives. Failure to maintain a competitive CGP A can lead to severe consequences, such as academic probation or even dropout, which are more common than often realized ( (Nurmalitasari et al., 2023; de Assis et al., 2022)). This system, while striving to maintain high standards, also exposes students to risks related to academic stress and potential burnout, with low CGP A often correlating with decreased motivation and higher dropout rates ((Behr et al., 2020)). Consequently, CGP A holds significant weight in shaping students' academic trajectories, making it an essential factor not only for students themselves but also for educators and institutions aiming to foster positive academic environments. Understanding and accurately predicting CGP A could thus support students in better managing their academic journeys, offering early interventions for those at risk, and allowing educators to tailor their approaches to student needs.


Unraveling Hidden Representations: A Multi-Modal Layer Analysis for Better Synthetic Content Forensics

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Generative models achieve remarkable results in multiple data domains, including images and texts, among other examples. Unfortunately, malicious users exploit synthetic media for spreading misinformation and disseminating deepfakes. Consequently, the need for robust and stable fake detectors is pressing, especially when new generative models appear everyday. While the majority of existing work train classifiers that discriminate between real and fake information, such tools typically generalize only within the same family of generators and data modalities, yielding poor results on other generative classes and data domains. Towards a universal classifier, we propose the use of large pre-trained multi-modal models for the detection of generative content. Effectively, we show that the latent code of these models naturally captures information discriminating real from fake. Building on this observation, we demonstrate that linear classifiers trained on these features can achieve state-of-the-art results across various modalities, while remaining computationally efficient, fast to train, and effective even in few-shot settings. Our work primarily focuses on fake detection in audio and images, achieving performance that surpasses or matches that of strong baseline methods.


Classification of Psychiatry Clinical Notes by Diagnosis: A Deep Learning and Machine Learning Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The classification of clinical notes into specific diagnostic categories is critical in healthcare, especially for mental health conditions like Anxiety and Adjustment Disorder. In this study, we compare the performance of various Artificial Intelligence models, including both traditional Machine Learning approaches (Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, K-nearest neighbors, Decision Tree, and eXtreme Gradient Boost) and Deep Learning models (DistilBERT and SciBERT), to classify clinical notes into these two diagnoses. Additionally, we implemented three oversampling strategies: No Oversampling, Random Oversampling, and Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE), to assess their impact on model performance. Hyperparameter tuning was also applied to optimize model accuracy. Our results indicate that oversampling techniques had minimal impact on model performance overall. The only exception was SMOTE, which showed a positive effect specifically with BERT-based models. However, hyperparameter optimization significantly improved accuracy across the models, enhancing their ability to generalize and perform on the dataset. The Decision Tree and eXtreme Gradient Boost models achieved the highest accuracy among machine learning approaches, both reaching 96%, while the DistilBERT and SciBERT models also attained 96% accuracy in the deep learning category. These findings underscore the importance of hyperparameter tuning in maximizing model performance. This study contributes to the ongoing research on AI-assisted diagnostic tools in mental health by providing insights into the efficacy of different model architectures and data balancing methods.


The Prosody of Emojis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Prosodic features such as pitch, timing, and intonation are central to spoken communication, conveying emotion, intent, and discourse structure. In text-based settings, where these cues are absent, emojis act as visual surrogates that add affective and pragmatic nuance. This study examines how emojis influence prosodic realisation in speech and how listeners interpret prosodic cues to recover emoji meanings. Unlike previous work, we directly link prosody and emoji by analysing actual human speech data, collected through structured but open-ended production and perception tasks. This provides empirical evidence of how emoji semantics shape spoken delivery and perception. Results show that speakers adapt their prosody based on emoji cues, listeners can often identify the intended emoji from prosodic variation alone, and greater semantic differences between emojis correspond to increased prosodic divergence. These findings suggest that emojis can act as meaningful carriers of prosodic intent, offering insight into their communicative role in digitally mediated contexts.


A Conditional GAN for Tabular Data Generation with Probabilistic Sampling of Latent Subspaces

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The tabular form constitutes the standard way of representing data in relational database systems and spreadsheets. But, similarly to other forms, tabular data suffers from class imbalance, a problem that causes serious performance degradation in a wide variety of machine learning tasks. One of the most effective solutions dictates the usage of Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) in order to synthesize artificial data instances for the under-represented classes. Despite their good performance, none of the proposed GAN models takes into account the vector subspaces of the input samples in the real data space, leading to data generation in arbitrary locations. Moreover, the class labels are treated in the same manner as the other categorical variables during training, so conditional sampling by class is rendered less effective. To overcome these problems, this study presents ctdGAN, a conditional GAN for alleviating class imbalance in tabular datasets. Initially, ctdGAN executes a space partitioning step to assign cluster labels to the input samples. Subsequently, it utilizes these labels to synthesize samples via a novel probabilistic sampling strategy and a new loss function that penalizes both cluster and class mis-predictions. In this way, ctdGAN is trained to generate samples in subspaces that resemble those of the original data distribution. We also introduce several other improvements, including a simple, yet effective cluster-wise scaling technique that captures multiple feature modes without affecting data dimensionality. The exhaustive evaluation of ctdGAN with 14 imbalanced datasets demonstrated its superiority in generating high fidelity samples and improving classification accuracy.


Multi-Layer Attention is the Amplifier of Demonstration Effectiveness

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Numerous studies have investigated the underlying mechanisms of in-context learning (ICL) effectiveness to inspire the design of related methods. However, existing work predominantly assumes the effectiveness of the demonstrations provided within ICL, while many research indicates that not all demonstrations are effective, failing to yielding any performance improvement during ICL. Therefore, in this paper, we investigate the reasons behind demonstration ineffectiveness. Our analysis is based on gradient flow and linear self-attention models. By setting the gradient flow to zero, we deduce that a demonstration becomes ineffective if its information has either been learned by the model or is irrelevant to the user query. Furthermore, we demonstrate that in multi-layer models, the disparity in effectiveness among demonstrations is amplified with layer increasing, causing the model to focus more on effective ones. Considering that current demonstration selection methods primarily focus on the relevance to the user query while overlooking the information that the model has already assimilated, we propose a novel method called GradS, which leverages gradient flow for demonstration selection. We use the magnitude of the gradient flow of the demonstration with respect to a given user query as the criterion, thereby ensuring the effectiveness of the chosen ones. We validate our derivation and GradS on four prominent LLMs across five mainstream datasets. The experimental results confirm that the disparity in effectiveness among demonstrations is magnified as the model layer increases, substantiating our derivations. Moreover, GradS achieves a relative improvement of $6.8\%$ on average over the strongest baselines, demonstrating its effectiveness.