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 Statistical Learning


Hi-fi functional priors by learning activations

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Function-space priors in Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) provide a more intuitive approach to embedding beliefs directly into the model's output, thereby enhancing regularization, uncertainty quantification, and risk-aware decision-making. However, imposing function-space priors on BNNs is challenging. We address this task through optimization techniques that explore how trainable activations can accommodate higher-complexity priors and match intricate target function distributions. We investigate flexible activation models, including Pade functions and piecewise linear functions, and discuss the learning challenges related to identifiability, loss construction, and symmetries. Our empirical findings indicate that even BNNs with a single wide hidden layer when equipped with flexible trainable activation, can effectively achieve desired function-space priors.


Projection-based multifidelity linear regression for data-scarce applications

arXiv.org Machine Learning

An important challenge in scientific machine learning is to develop methods that can exploit and maximize the amount of learning possible from scarce data [1-4]. The need for such methods arises often in science and engineering, especially in the case of computational fluid dynamics (CFD), since expensive-to-evaluate high-fidelity (HF) models make many-query problems such as uncertainty quantification, risk analysis, optimization, and optimization under uncertainty computationally prohibitive [5]. Surrogate models that approximate the solutions to HF models can facilitate the design and analysis process; however, lack of sufficient HF data in tandem with high-dimensional quantities of interest adversely affect surrogate model accuracy. We propose multifidelity (MF) linear regression methods that leverage abundant low-cost, lower-fidelity (LF) data alongside limited HF data to construct linear regression models. These models operate within a reduced-dimensional subspace, obtained through the principal component analysis (PCA), to effectively handle both training data scarcity and the high dimensionality (on the order of tens of thousands of quantities of interest) inherent in our problem setting. Linear regression has been widely utilized as a surrogate modeling approach in aerospace applications due to its simplicity and interpretability. We note that linear regression encompasses a broad class of models that are linear in their parameters but can include features that are arbitrarily nonlinear functions of the input variables [6].


Integrating attention into explanation frameworks for language and vision transformers

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The attention mechanism lies at the core of the transformer architecture, providing an interpretable model-internal signal that has motivated a growing interest in attention-based model explanations. Although attention weights do not directly determine model outputs, they reflect patterns of token influence that can inform and complement established explainability techniques. This work studies the potential of utilising the information encoded in attention weights to provide meaningful model explanations by integrating them into explainable AI (XAI) frameworks that target fundamentally different aspects of model behaviour. To this end, we develop two novel explanation methods applicable to both natural language processing and computer vision tasks. The first integrates attention weights into the Shapley value decomposition by redefining the characteristic function in terms of pairwise token interactions via attention weights, thus adapting this widely used game-theoretic solution concept to provide attention-driven attributions for local explanations. The second incorporates attention weights into token-level directional derivatives defined through concept activation vectors to measure concept sensitivity for global explanations. Our empirical evaluations on standard benchmarks and in a comparison study with widely used explanation methods show that attention weights can be meaningfully incorporated into the studied XAI frameworks, highlighting their value in enriching transformer explainability.


Hierarchical Variable Importance with Statistical Control for Medical Data-Based Prediction

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Recent advances in machine learning have greatly expanded the repertoire of predictive methods for medical imaging. However, the interpretability of complex models remains a challenge, which limits their utility in medical applications. Recently, model-agnostic methods have been proposed to measure conditional variable importance and accommodate complex non-linear models. However, they often lack power when dealing with highly correlated data, a common problem in medical imaging. We introduce Hierarchical-CPI, a model-agnostic variable importance measure that frames the inference problem as the discovery of groups of variables that are jointly predictive of the outcome. By exploring subgroups along a hierarchical tree, it remains computationally tractable, yet also enjoys explicit family-wise error rate control. Moreover, we address the issue of vanishing conditional importance under high correlation with a tree-based importance allocation mechanism. We benchmarked Hierarchical-CPI against state-of-the-art variable importance methods. Its effectiveness is demonstrated in two neuroimaging datasets: classifying dementia diagnoses from MRI data (ADNI dataset) and analyzing the Berger effect on EEG data (TDBRAIN dataset), identifying biologically plausible variables.


Differentiable Cyclic Causal Discovery Under Unmeasured Confounders

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Understanding causal relationships between variables is fundamental across scientific disciplines. Most causal discovery algorithms rely on two key assumptions: (i) all variables are observed, and (ii) the underlying causal graph is acyclic. While these assumptions simplify theoretical analysis, they are often violated in real-world systems, such as biological networks. Existing methods that account for confounders either assume linearity or struggle with scalability. To address these limitations, we propose DCCD-CONF, a novel framework for differentiable learning of nonlinear cyclic causal graphs in the presence of unmeasured confounders using interventional data. Our approach alternates between optimizing the graph structure and estimating the confounder distribution by maximizing the log-likelihood of the data. Through experiments on synthetic data and real-world gene perturbation datasets, we show that DCCD-CONF outperforms state-of-the-art methods in both causal graph recovery and confounder identification. Additionally, we also provide consistency guarantees for our framework, reinforcing its theoretical soundness.


Link Prediction for Event Logs in the Process Industry

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Knowledge management (KM) is vital in the process industry for optimizing operations, ensuring safety, and enabling continuous improvement through effective use of operational data and past insights. A key challenge in this domain is the fragmented nature of event logs in shift books, where related records, e.g., entries documenting issues related to equipment or processes and the corresponding solutions, may remain disconnected. This fragmentation hinders the recommendation of previous solutions to the users. To address this problem, we investigate record linking (RL) as link prediction, commonly studied in graph-based machine learning, by framing it as a cross-document coreference resolution (CDCR) task enhanced with natural language inference (NLI) and semantic text similarity (STS) by shifting it into the causal inference (CI). We adapt CDCR, traditionally applied in the news domain, into an RL model to operate at the passage level, similar to NLI and STS, while accommodating the process industry's specific text formats, which contain unstructured text and structured record attributes. Our RL model outperformed the best versions of NLI- and STS-driven baselines by 28% (11.43 points) and 27% (11.21 points), respectively. Our work demonstrates how domain adaptation of the state-of-the-art CDCR models, enhanced with reasoning capabilities, can be effectively tailored to the process industry, improving data quality and connectivity in shift logs.


A First Look at Predictability and Explainability of Pre-request Passenger Waiting Time in Ridesharing Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Passenger waiting time prediction plays a critical role in enhancing both ridesharing user experience and platform efficiency. While most existing research focuses on post-request waiting time prediction with knowing the matched driver information, pre-request waiting time prediction (i.e., before submitting a ride request and without matching a driver) is also important, as it enables passengers to plan their trips more effectively and enhance the experience of both passengers and drivers. However, it has not been fully studied by existing works. In this paper, we take the first step toward understanding the predictability and explainability of pre-request passenger waiting time in ridesharing systems. Particularly, we conduct an in-depth data-driven study to investigate the impact of demand&supply dynamics on passenger waiting time. Based on this analysis and feature engineering, we propose FiXGBoost, a novel feature interaction-based XGBoost model designed to predict waiting time without knowing the assigned driver information. We further perform an importance analysis to quantify the contribution of each factor. Experiments on a large-scale real-world ridesharing dataset including over 30 million trip records show that our FiXGBoost can achieve a good performance for pre-request passenger waiting time prediction with high explainability.


QAMRO: Quality-aware Adaptive Margin Ranking Optimization for Human-aligned Assessment of Audio Generation Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Evaluating audio generation systems, including text-to-music (TTM), text-to-speech (TTS), and text-to-audio (TTA), remains challenging due to the subjective and multi-dimensional nature of human perception. Existing methods treat mean opinion score (MOS) prediction as a regression problem, but standard regression losses overlook the relativity of perceptual judgments. To address this limitation, we introduce QAMRO, a novel Quality-aware Adaptive Margin Ranking Optimization framework that seamlessly integrates regression objectives from different perspectives, aiming to highlight perceptual differences and prioritize accurate ratings. Our framework leverages pre-trained audio-text models such as CLAP and Audiobox-Aesthetics, and is trained exclusively on the official AudioMOS Challenge 2025 dataset. It demonstrates superior alignment with human evaluations across all dimensions, significantly outperforming robust baseline models.


Fre-CW: Targeted Attack on Time Series Forecasting using Frequency Domain Loss

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Transformer - based models have made significant progress in time series forecasting. However, a key limitation of deep learning models is their susceptibility to adversarial attacks, which has not been studied enough in the context of time series prediction . In contrast to areas such as computer vision, where adversarial robustness has been extensively studied, frequency domain features of time series data play an important role in the prediction task but have not been sufficiently explored in terms of adver sarial attacks. This paper proposes a time series prediction attack algorithm based on frequency domain loss. Specifically, we adapt an attack method originally designed for classification tasks to the prediction field and optimize the adversarial samples using both time - domain and frequency - domain losses. To the best of our knowledge, there is no relevant research on using frequency information for time - series adversarial attacks. Our experimental results show that these current time series prediction mode ls are vulnerable to adversarial attacks, and our approach achieves excellent performance on major time series forecasting datasets.


GRAVITY: A Controversial Graph Representation Learning for Vertex Classification

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the quest of accurate vertex classification, we introduce GRAVITY (Graph-based Representation leArning via Vertices Interaction TopologY), a framework inspired by physical systems where objects self-organize under attractive forces. GRAVITY models each vertex as exerting influence through learned interactions shaped by structural proximity and attribute similarity. These interactions induce a latent potential field in which vertices move toward energy efficient positions, coalescing around class-consistent attractors and distancing themselves from unrelated groups. Unlike traditional message-passing schemes with static neighborhoods, GRAVITY adaptively modulates the receptive field of each vertex based on a learned force function, enabling dynamic aggregation driven by context. This field-driven organization sharpens class boundaries and promotes semantic coherence within latent clusters. Experiments on real-world benchmarks show that GRAVITY yields competitive embeddings, excelling in both transductive and inductive vertex classification tasks.