Many common estimators in machine learning and causal inference are linear smoothers, where the prediction is a weighted average of the training outcomes. Some estimators, such as ordinary least squares and kernel ridge regression, allow for arbitrarily negative weights, which improve feature imbalance but often at the cost of increased dependence on parametric modeling assumptions and higher variance. By contrast, estimators like importance weighting and random forests (sometimes implicitly) restrict weights to be non-negative, reducing dependence on parametric modeling and variance at the cost of worse imbalance. In this paper, we propose a unified framework that directly penalizes the level of extrapolation, replacing the current practice of a hard non-negativity constraint with a soft constraint and corresponding hyperparameter. We derive a worst-case extrapolation error bound and introduce a novel "bias-bias-variance" tradeoff, encompassing biases due to feature imbalance, model misspecification, and estimator variance; this tradeoff is especially pronounced in high dimensions, particularly when positivity is poor. We then develop an optimization procedure that regularizes this bound while minimizing imbalance and outline how to use this approach as a sensitivity analysis for dependence on parametric modeling assumptions. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach through synthetic experiments and a real-world application, involving the generalization of randomized controlled trial estimates to a target population of interest.

We study Bayesian inverse problems with mixed noise, modeled as a combination of additive and multiplicative Gaussian components. While traditional inference methods often assume fixed or known noise characteristics, real-world applications, particularly in physics and chemistry, frequently involve noise with unknown and heterogeneous structure. Motivated by recent advances in flow-based generative modeling, we propose a novel inference framework based on conditional flow matching embedded within an Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm to jointly estimate posterior samplers and noise parameters. To enable high-dimensional inference and improve scalability, we use simulation-free ODE-based flow matching as the generative model in the E-step of the EM algorithm. We prove that, under suitable assumptions, the EM updates converge to the true noise parameters in the population limit of infinite observations. Our numerical results illustrate the effectiveness of combining EM inference with flow matching for mixed-noise Bayesian inverse problems.

Red blood cells (RBCs) are essential to human health, and their precise morphological analysis is important for diagnosing hematological disorders. Despite the promise of foundation models in medical diagnostics, comprehensive AI solutions for RBC analysis remain scarce. We present RedDino, a self-supervised foundation model designed for RBC image analysis. RedDino uses an RBC-specific adaptation of the DINOv2 self-supervised learning framework and is trained on a curated dataset of 1.25 million RBC images from diverse acquisition modalities and sources. Extensive evaluations show that RedDino outperforms existing state-of-the-art models on RBC shape classification. Through assessments including linear probing and nearest neighbor classification, we confirm its strong feature representations and generalization ability. Our main contributions are: (1) a foundation model tailored for RBC analysis, (2) ablation studies exploring DINOv2 configurations for RBC modeling, and (3) a detailed evaluation of generalization performance. RedDino addresses key challenges in computational hematology by capturing nuanced morphological features, advancing the development of reliable diagnostic tools. The source code and pretrained models for RedDino are available at https://github.com/Snarci/RedDino, and the pretrained models can be downloaded from our Hugging Face collection at https://huggingface.co/collections/Snarcy/reddino-689a13e29241d2e5690202fc

Pre-trained language models (PLMs) have driven substantial progress in natural language processing but remain vulnerable to adversarial attacks, raising concerns about their robustness in real-world applications. Previous studies have sought to mitigate the impact of adversarial attacks by introducing adversarial perturbations into the training process, either implicitly or explicitly. While both strategies enhance robustness, they often incur high computational costs. In this work, we propose a simple yet effective add-on module that enhances the adversarial robustness of PLMs by removing instance-level principal components, without relying on conventional adversarial defences or perturbing the original training data. Our approach transforms the embedding space to approximate Gaussian properties, thereby reducing its susceptibility to adversarial perturbations while preserving semantic relationships. This transformation aligns embedding distributions in a way that minimises the impact of adversarial noise on decision boundaries, enhancing robustness without requiring adversarial examples or costly training-time augmentation. Evaluations on eight benchmark datasets show that our approach improves adversarial robustness while maintaining comparable before-attack accuracy to baselines, achieving a balanced trade-off between robustness and generalisation.

Time-series forecasting is an essential task with wide real-world applications across domains. While recent advances in deep learning have enabled time-series forecasting models with accurate predictions, there remains considerable debate over which architectures and design components, such as series decomposition or normalization, are most effective under varying conditions. Existing benchmarks primarily evaluate models at a high level, offering limited insight into why certain designs work better. To mitigate this gap, we propose TimeRecipe, a unified benchmarking framework that systematically evaluates time-series forecasting methods at the module level. TimeRecipe conducts over 10,000 experiments to assess the effectiveness of individual components across a diverse range of datasets, forecasting horizons, and task settings. Our results reveal that exhaustive exploration of the design space can yield models that outperform existing state-of-the-art methods and uncover meaningful intuitions linking specific design choices to forecasting scenarios. Furthermore, we release a practical toolkit within TimeRecipe that recommends suitable model architectures based on these empirical insights. The benchmark is available at: https://github.com/AdityaLab/TimeRecipe.

In a mixture of linear regression model, the regression coefficients are treated as random vectors that may follow either a continuous or discrete distribution. We propose two Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithms to estimate this prior distribution. The first algorithm solves a kernelized version of the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation (NPMLE). This method not only recovers continuous prior distributions but also accurately estimates the number of clusters when the prior is discrete. The second algorithm, designed to approximate the NPMLE, targets prior distributions with a density. It also performs well for discrete priors when combined with a post-processing step. We study the convergence properties of both algorithms and demonstrate their effectiveness through simulations and applications to real datasets.

This paper addresses the problem of estimating causal directed acyclic graphs in linear non-Gaussian acyclic models with latent confounders (LvLiNGAM). Existing methods assume mutually independent latent confounders or cannot properly handle models with causal relationships among observed variables. We propose a novel algorithm that identifies causal DAGs in LvLiNGAM, allowing causal structures among latent variables, among observed variables, and between the two. The proposed method leverages higher-order cumu-lants of observed data to identify the causal structure. Extensive simulations and experiments with real-world data demonstrate the validity and practical utility of the proposed algorithm. Introduction Estimating causal directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) in the presence of latent confounders has been a major challenge in causal analysis. Conventional causal discovery methods, such as the Peter-Clark (PC) algorithm [1], Greedy Equivalence Search (GES) [2], and the Linear Non-Gaussian Acyclic Model (LiNGAM) [3, 4], focus solely on the causal model without latent confounders. Fast Causal Inference (FCI) [1] extends the PC algorithm to handle latent variables, recovering a partial ancestral graph (PAG) under the faithfulness assumption. Greedy Fast Causal Inference (GFCI) [6] hybridizes GES and FCI but inherits the limitation of FCI. The assumption of linearity and non-Gaussian disturbances in the causal model enables the identification of causal structures beyond the PAG. The linear non-Gaussian acyclic model with latent confounders (LvLiNGAM) is an extension of LiNGAM that incorporates latent confounders. Hoyer et al. [7] demonstrated that LvLiNGAM can be transformed into a canonical model in which all latent variables are mutually independent and causally precede the observed variables.

Determining the appropriate number of clusters in unsupervised learning is a central problem in statistics and data science. Traditional validity indices such as Calinski-Harabasz, Silhouette, and Davies-Bouldin-depend on centroid-based distances and therefore degrade in high-dimensional or contaminated data. This paper proposes a new robust, nonparametric clustering validation framework, the High-Dimensional Between-Within Distance Median (HD-BWDM), which extends the recently introduced BWDM criterion to high-dimensional spaces. HD-BWDM integrates random projection and principal component analysis to mitigate the curse of dimensionality and applies trimmed clustering and medoid-based distances to ensure robustness against outliers. We derive theoretical results showing consistency and convergence under Johnson-Lindenstrauss embeddings. Extensive simulations demonstrate that HD-BWDM remains stable and interpretable under high-dimensional projections and contamination, providing a robust alternative to traditional centroid-based validation criteria. The proposed method provides a theoretically grounded, computationally efficient stopping rule for nonparametric clustering in modern high-dimensional applications.

We introduce a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that dramatically accelerates the simulation of quantum many-body systems, a grand challenge in computational science. State-of-the-art methods for these problems are severely limited by $O(N^3)$ computational complexity. Our method avoids this bottleneck, achieving near-linear $O(N \log N)$ scaling per sweep. Our approach samples a joint probability measure over two coupled variable sets: (1) particle trajectories of the fundamental fermions, and (2) auxiliary variables that decouple fermion interactions. The key innovation is a novel transition kernel for particle trajectories formulated in the Fourier domain, revealing the transition probability as a convolution that enables massive acceleration via the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT). The auxiliary variables admit closed-form, factorized conditional distributions, enabling efficient exact Gibbs sampling update. We validate our algorithm on benchmark quantum physics problems, accurately reproducing known theoretical results and matching traditional $O(N^3)$ algorithms on $32\times 32$ lattice simulations at a fraction of the wall-clock time, empirically demonstrating $N \log N$ scaling. By reformulating a long-standing physics simulation problem in machine learning language, our work provides a powerful tool for large-scale probabilistic inference and opens avenues for physics-inspired generative models.

Progress in AI is hindered by the lack of a programming language with all the requisite features. Libraries like PyTorch and TensorFlow provide automatic differentiation and efficient GPU implementation, but are additions to Python, which was never intended for AI. Their lack of support for automated reasoning and knowledge acquisition has led to a long and costly series of hacky attempts to tack them on. On the other hand, AI languages like LISP and Prolog lack scalability and support for learning. This paper proposes tensor logic, a language that solves these problems by unifying neural and symbolic AI at a fundamental level. The sole construct in tensor logic is the tensor equation, based on the observation that logical rules and Einstein summation are essentially the same operation, and all else can be reduced to them. I show how to elegantly implement key forms of neural, symbolic and statistical AI in tensor logic, including transformers, formal reasoning, kernel machines and graphical models. Most importantly, tensor logic makes new directions possible, such as sound reasoning in embedding space. This combines the scalability and learnability of neural networks with the reliability and transparency of symbolic reasoning, and is potentially a basis for the wider adoption of AI.