Mean-field variational inference (MFVI) is a widely used method for approximating high-dimensional probability distributions by product measures. It has been empirically observed that MFVI optimizers often suffer from mode collapse. Specifically, when the target measure $π$ is a mixture $π= w P_0 + (1 - w) P_1$, the MFVI optimizer tends to place most of its mass near a single component of the mixture. This work provides the first theoretical explanation of mode collapse in MFVI. We introduce the notion to capture the separatedness of the two mixture components -- called $\varepsilon$-separateness -- and derive explicit bounds on the fraction of mass that any MFVI optimizer assigns to each component when $P_0$ and $P_1$ are $\varepsilon$-separated for sufficiently small $\varepsilon$. Our results suggest that the occurrence of mode collapse crucially depends on the relative position of the components. To address this issue, we propose the rotational variational inference (RoVI), which augments MFVI with a rotation matrix. The numerical studies support our theoretical findings and demonstrate the benefits of RoVI.

In many business settings, task-specific labeled data are scarce or costly to obtain, which limits supervised learning on a specific task. To address this challenge, we study sample sharing in the case of ridge regression: leveraging an auxiliary data set while explicitly protecting against negative transfer. We introduce a principled, data-driven rule that decides how many samples from an auxiliary dataset to add to the target training set. The rule is based on an estimate of the transfer gain i.e. the marginal reduction in the predictive error. Building on this estimator, we derive finite-sample guaranties: under standard conditions, the procedure borrows when it improves parameter estimation and abstains otherwise. In the Gaussian feature setting, we analyze which data set properties ensure that borrowing samples reduces the predictive error. We validate the approach in synthetic and real datasets, observing consistent gains over strong baselines and single-task training while avoiding negative transfer.

In social sciences, small- to medium-scale datasets are common and linear regression (LR) is canonical. In privacy-aware settings, much work has focused on differentially private (DP) LR, but mostly on point estimation with limited attention to uncertainty quantification. Meanwhile, synthetic data generation (SDG) is increasingly important for reproducibility studies, yet current DP LR methods do not readily support it. Mainstream SDG approaches are either tailored to discretized data, making them less suitable for continuous regression, or rely on deep models that require large datasets, limiting their use for the smaller, continuous data typical in social science. We propose a method for LR with valid inference under Gaussian DP: a DP bias-corrected estimator with asymptotic confidence intervals (CIs) and a general SDG procedure in which regression on the synthetic data matches our DP regression. Our binning-aggregation strategy is effective in small- to moderate-dimensional settings. Experiments show our method (1) improves accuracy over existing methods, (2) provides valid CIs, and (3) produces more reliable synthetic data for downstream ML tasks than current DP SDGs.

We study nonparametric regression and classification for path-valued data. We introduce a functional Nadaraya-Watson estimator that combines the signature transform from rough path theory with local kernel regression. The signature transform provides a principled way to encode sequential data through iterated integrals, enabling direct comparison of paths in a natural metric space. Our approach leverages signature-induced distances within the classical kernel regression framework, achieving computational efficiency while avoiding the scalability bottlenecks of large-scale kernel matrix operations. We establish finite-sample convergence bounds demonstrating favorable statistical properties of signature-based distances compared to traditional metrics in infinite-dimensional settings. We propose robust signature variants that provide stability against outliers, enhancing practical performance. Applications to both synthetic and real-world data - including stochastic differential equation learning and time series classification - demonstrate competitive accuracy while offering significant computational advantages over existing methods.

Modern datasets often contain high-dimensional features exhibiting complex dependencies. To effectively analyze such data, dimensionality reduction methods rely on estimating the dataset's intrinsic dimension (id) as a measure of its underlying complexity. However, estimating id is challenging due to its dependence on scale: at very fine scales, noise inflates id estimates, while at coarser scales, estimates stabilize to lower, scale-invariant values. This paper introduces a novel, scalable, and parallelizable method called eDCF, which is based on Connectivity Factor (CF), a local connectivity-based metric, to robustly estimate intrinsic dimension across varying scales. Our method consistently matches leading estimators, achieving comparable values of mean absolute error (MAE) on synthetic benchmarks with noisy samples. Moreover, our approach also attains higher exact intrinsic dimension match rates, reaching up to 25.0% compared to 16.7% for MLE and 12.5% for TWO-NN, particularly excelling under medium to high noise levels and large datasets. Further, we showcase our method's ability to accurately detect fractal geometries in decision boundaries, confirming its utility for analyzing realistic, structured data.

We introduce a sequential reinforcement learning framework for imitation learning designed to model heterogeneous cognitive strategies in pollinators. Focusing on honeybees, our approach leverages trajectory similarity to capture and forecast behavior across individuals that rely on distinct strategies: some exploiting numerical cues, others drawing on memory, or being influenced by environmental factors such as weather. Through empirical evaluation, we show that state-of-the-art imitation learning methods often fail in this setting: when expert policies shift across memory windows or deviate from optimality, these models overlook both fast and slow learning behaviors and cannot faithfully reproduce key decision patterns. Moreover, they offer limited interpretability, hindering biological insight. Our contribution addresses these challenges by (i) introducing a model that minimizes predictive loss while identifying the effective memory horizon most consistent with behavioral data, and (ii) ensuring full interpretability to enable biologists to analyze underlying decision-making strategies and finally (iii) providing a mathematical framework linking bee policy search with bandit formulations under varying exploration-exploitation dynamics, and releasing a novel dataset of 80 tracked bees observed under diverse weather conditions. This benchmark facilitates research on pollinator cognition and supports ecological governance by improving simulations of insect behavior in agroecosystems. Our findings shed new light on the learning strategies and memory interplay shaping pollinator decision-making.

While significant progress has been made in heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) estimation, the evaluation of HTE estimators remains underdeveloped. In this article, we propose a robust evaluation framework based on relative error, which quantifies performance differences between two HTE estimators. We first derive the key theoretical conditions on the nuisance parameters that are necessary to achieve a robust estimator of relative error. Building on these conditions, we introduce novel loss functions and design a neural network architecture to estimate nuisance parameters and obtain robust estimation of relative error, thereby achieving reliable evaluation of HTE estimators. We provide the large sample properties of the proposed relative error estimator. Furthermore, beyond evaluation, we propose a new learning algorithm for HTE that leverages both the previously HTE estimators and the nuisance parameters learned through our neural network architecture. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our evaluation framework supports reliable comparisons across HTE estimators, and the proposed learning algorithm for HTE exhibits desirable performance.

Prediction-powered inference is a recent methodology for the safe use of black-box ML models to impute missing data, strengthening inference of statistical parameters. However, many applications require strong properties besides valid inference, such as privacy, robustness or validity under continuous distribution shifts; deriving prediction-powered methods with such guarantees is generally an arduous process, and has to be done case by case. In this paper, we resolve this issue by connecting prediction-powered inference with conformal prediction: by performing imputation through a calibrated conformal set-predictor, we attain validity while achieving additional guarantees in a natural manner. We instantiate our procedure for the inference of means, Z- and M-estimation, as well as e-values and e-value-based procedures. Furthermore, in the case of e-values, ours is the first general prediction-powered procedure that operates off-line. We demonstrate these advantages by applying our method on private and time-series data. Both tasks are nontrivial within the standard prediction-powered framework but become natural under our method.

Membership Inference Attacks (MIAs) pose a critical privacy threat by enabling adversaries to determine whether a specific sample was included in a model's training dataset. Despite extensive research on MIAs, systematic comparisons between generative and discriminative classifiers remain limited. This work addresses this gap by first providing theoretical motivation for why generative classifiers exhibit heightened susceptibility to MIAs, then validating these insights through comprehensive empirical evaluation. Our study encompasses discriminative, generative, and pseudo-generative text classifiers across varying training data volumes, evaluated on nine benchmark datasets. Employing a diverse array of MIA strategies, we consistently demonstrate that fully generative classifiers which explicitly model the joint likelihood $P(X,Y)$ are most vulnerable to membership leakage. Furthermore, we observe that the canonical inference approach commonly used in generative classifiers significantly amplifies this privacy risk. These findings reveal a fundamental utility-privacy trade-off inherent in classifier design, underscoring the critical need for caution when deploying generative classifiers in privacy-sensitive applications. Our results motivate future research directions in developing privacy-preserving generative classifiers that can maintain utility while mitigating membership inference vulnerabilities.

The recent development of foundation models for time series data has generated considerable interest in using such models across a variety of applications. Although foundation models achieve state-of-the-art predictive performance, their calibration properties remain relatively underexplored, despite the fact that calibration can be critical for many practical applications. In this paper, we investigate the calibration-related properties of five recent time series foundation models and two competitive baselines. We perform a series of systematic evaluations assessing model calibration (i.e., over- or under-confidence), effects of varying prediction heads, and calibration under long-term autoregressive forecasting. We find that time series foundation models are consistently better calibrated than baseline models and tend not to be either systematically over- or under-confident, in contrast to the overconfidence often seen in other deep learning models.