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 Statistical Learning


WolBanking77: Wolof Banking Speech Intent Classification Dataset

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Intent classification models have made a significant progress in recent years. However, previous studies primarily focus on high-resource language datasets, which results in a gap for low-resource languages and for regions with high rates of illiteracy, where languages are more spoken than read or written. This is the case in Senegal, for example, where Wolof is spoken by around 90\% of the population, while the national illiteracy rate remains at of 42\%. Wolof is actually spoken by more than 10 million people in West African region. To address these limitations, we introduce the Wolof Banking Speech Intent Classification Dataset (WolBanking77), for academic research in intent classification. WolBanking77 currently contains 9,791 text sentences in the banking domain and more than 4 hours of spoken sentences. Experiments on various baselines are conducted in this work, including text and voice state-of-the-art models. The results are very promising on this current dataset. In addition, this paper presents an in-depth examination of the dataset's contents. We report baseline F1-scores and word error rates metrics respectively on NLP and ASR models trained on WolBanking77 dataset and also comparisons between models. Dataset and code available at: https://github.com/abdoukarim/wolbanking77.


Self-Supervised Discovery of Neural Circuits in Spatially Patterned Neural Responses with Graph Neural Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Inferring synaptic connectivity from neural population activity is a fundamental challenge in computational neuroscience, complicated by partial observability and mismatches between inference models and true circuit dynamics. In this study, we propose a graph-based neural inference model that simultaneously predicts neural activity and infers latent connectivity by modeling neurons as interacting nodes in a graph. The architecture features two distinct modules: one for learning structural connectivity and another for predicting future spiking activity via a graph neural network (GNN). Our model accommodates unobserved neurons through auxiliary nodes, allowing for inference in partially observed circuits. We evaluate this approach using synthetic data generated from ring attractor network models and real spike recordings from head direction cells in mice. Across a wide range of conditions, including varying recurrent connectivity, external inputs, and incomplete observations, our model reliably resolves spurious correlations and recovers accurate weight profiles. When applied to real data, the inferred connectivity aligns with theoretical predictions of continuous attractor models. These results highlight the potential of GNN-based models to infer latent neural circuitry through self-supervised structure learning, while leveraging the spike prediction task to flexibly link connectivity and dynamics across both simulated and biological neural systems.


The Role of AI in Facilitating Interdisciplinary Collaboration: Evidence from AlphaFold

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The acceleration of artificial intelligence (AI) in science is recognized and many scholars have begun to explore its role in interdisciplinary collaboration. However, the mechanisms and extent of this impact are still unclear. This study, using AlphaFold's impact on structural biologists, examines how AI technologies influence interdisciplinary collaborative patterns. By analyzing 1,247 AlphaFold-related papers and 7,700 authors from Scopus, we employ bibliometric analysis and causal inference to compare interdisciplinary collaboration between AlphaFold adopters and non-adopters. Contrary to the widespread belief that AI facilitates interdisciplinary collaboration, our findings show that AlphaFold increased structural biology-computer science collaborations by just 0.48%, with no measurable effect on other disciplines. Specifically, AI creates interdisciplinary collaboration demands with specific disciplines due to its technical characteristics, but this demand is weakened by technological democratization and other factors. These findings demonstrate that artificial intelligence (AI) alone has limited efficacy in bridging disciplinary divides or fostering meaningful interdisciplinary collaboration.


Explainable artificial intelligence model predicting the risk of all-cause mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Objective. Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a highly prevalent non-communicable chronic disease that substantially reduces life expectancy. Accurate estimation of all-cause mortality risk in T2DM patients is crucial for personalizing and optimizing treatment strategies. Research Design and Methods. This study analyzed a cohort of 554 patients (aged 40-87 years) with diagnosed T2DM over a maximum follow-up period of 16.8 years, during which 202 patients (36%) died. Key survival-associated features were identified, and multiple machine learning (ML) models were trained and validated to predict all-cause mortality risk. To improve model interpretability, Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) was applied to the best-performing model. Results. The extra survival trees (EST) model, incorporating ten key features, demonstrated the best predictive performance. The model achieved a C-statistic of 0.776, with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values of 0.86, 0.80, 0.841, and 0.826 for 5-, 10-, 15-, and 16.8-year all-cause mortality predictions, respectively. The SHAP approach was employed to interpret the model's individual decision-making processes. Conclusions. The developed model exhibited strong predictive performance for mortality risk assessment. Its clinically interpretable outputs enable potential bedside application, improving the identification of high-risk patients and supporting timely treatment optimization.


Time-Resolved EEG Decoding of Semantic Processing Reveals Altered Neural Dynamics in Depression and Suicidality

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Depression and suicidality affect cognitive and emotional processes, yet objective, task-evoked neural readouts of mental health remain limited. We investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of affective semantic processing using multivariate decoding of time-resolved, 64-channel electroencephalography (EEG). Participants (N=137) performed a sentence-evaluation task with emotionally salient, self-referential statements. We identified robust neural signatures of semantic processing, with peak decoding accuracy between 300-600 ms -- a window associated with rapid, stimulus-driven semantic evaluation and conflict monitoring. Relative to healthy controls, individuals with depression and suicidal ideation showed earlier onset, longer duration, and greater amplitude decoding responses, along with broader cross-temporal generalization and enhanced contributions from frontocentral and parietotemporal components. These findings suggest altered sensitivity and impaired disengagement from emotionally salient content in the clinical groups, advancing our understanding of the neurocognitive basis of mental health and establishing a compact and interpretable EEG-based index of semantic-evaluation dynamics with potential diagnostic relevance.


Learning and Interpreting Gravitational-Wave Features from CNNs with a Random Forest Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have become widely adopted in gravitational wave (GW) detection pipelines due to their ability to automatically learn hierarchical features from raw strain data. However, the physical meaning of these learned features remains underexplored, limiting the interpretability of such models. In this work, we propose a hybrid architecture that combines a CNN-based feature extractor with a random forest (RF) classifier to improve both detection performance and interpretability. Unlike prior approaches that directly connect classifiers to CNN outputs, our method introduces four physically interpretable metrics - variance, signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), waveform overlap, and peak amplitude - computed from the final convolutional layer. These are jointly used with the CNN output in the RF classifier to enable more informed decision boundaries. Tested on long-duration strain datasets, our hybrid model outperforms a baseline CNN model, achieving a relative improvement of 21\% in sensitivity at a fixed false alarm rate of 10 events per month. Notably, it also shows improved detection of low-SNR signals (SNR $\le$ 10), which are especially vulnerable to misclassification in noisy environments. Feature attribution via the RF model reveals that both CNN-extracted and handcrafted features contribute significantly to classification decisions, with learned variance and CNN outputs ranked among the most informative. These findings suggest that physically motivated post-processing of CNN feature maps can serve as a valuable tool for interpretable and efficient GW detection, bridging the gap between deep learning and domain knowledge.


Monitoring State Transitions in Markovian Systems with Sampling Cost

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We consider a node-monitor pair, where the node's state varies with time. The monitor needs to track the node's state at all times; however, there is a fixed cost for each state query. So the monitor may instead predict the state using time-series forecasting methods, including time-series foundation models (TSFMs), and query only when prediction uncertainty is high. Since query decisions influence prediction accuracy, determining when to query is nontrivial. A natural approach is a greedy policy that predicts when the expected prediction loss is below the query cost and queries otherwise. We analyze this policy in a Markovian setting, where the optimal (OPT) strategy is a state-dependent threshold policy minimizing the time-averaged sum of query cost and prediction losses. We show that, in general, the greedy policy is suboptimal and can have an unbounded competitive ratio, but under common conditions such as identically distributed transition probabilities, it performs close to OPT. For the case of unknown transition probabilities, we further propose a projected stochastic gradient descent (PSGD)-based learning variant of the greedy policy, which achieves a favorable predict-query tradeoff with improved computational efficiency compared to OPT.


Minimizing Human Intervention in Online Classification

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We introduce and study an online problem arising in question answering systems. In this problem, an agent must sequentially classify user-submitted queries represented by $d$-dimensional embeddings drawn i.i.d. from an unknown distribution. The agent may consult a costly human expert for the correct label, or guess on her own without receiving feedback. The goal is to minimize regret against an oracle with free expert access. When the time horizon $T$ is at least exponential in the embedding dimension $d$, one can learn the geometry of the class regions: in this regime, we propose the Conservative Hull-based Classifier (CHC), which maintains convex hulls of expert-labeled queries and calls the expert as soon as a query lands outside all known hulls. CHC attains $\mathcal{O}(\log^d T)$ regret in $T$ and is minimax optimal for $d=1$. Otherwise, the geometry cannot be reliably learned without additional distributional assumptions. We show that when the queries are drawn from a subgaussian mixture, for $T \le e^d$, a Center-based Classifier (CC) achieves regret proportional to $N\log{N}$ where $N$ is the number of labels. To bridge these regimes, we introduce the Generalized Hull-based Classifier (GHC), a practical extension of CHC that allows for more aggressive guessing via a tunable threshold parameter. Our approach is validated with experiments, notably on real-world question-answering datasets using embeddings derived from state-of-the-art large language models.


Tighter CMI-Based Generalization Bounds via Stochastic Projection and Quantization

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper, we leverage stochastic projection and lossy compression to establish new conditional mutual information (CMI) bounds on the generalization error of statistical learning algorithms. It is shown that these bounds are generally tighter than the existing ones. In particular, we prove that for certain problem instances for which existing MI and CMI bounds were recently shown in Attias et al. [2024] and Livni [2023] to become vacuous or fail to describe the right generalization behavior, our bounds yield suitable generalization guarantees of the order of $\mathcal{O}(1/\sqrt{n})$, where $n$ is the size of the training dataset. Furthermore, we use our bounds to investigate the problem of data "memorization" raised in those works, and which asserts that there are learning problem instances for which any learning algorithm that has good prediction there exist distributions under which the algorithm must "memorize" a big fraction of the training dataset. We show that for every learning algorithm, there exists an auxiliary algorithm that does not memorize and which yields comparable generalization error for any data distribution. In part, this shows that memorization is not necessary for good generalization.


Provable test-time adaptivity and distributional robustness of in-context learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study in-context learning problems where a Transformer is pretrained on tasks drawn from a mixture distribution $π=\sum_{α\in\mathcal{A}} λ_α π_α$, called the pretraining prior, in which each mixture component $π_α$ is a distribution on tasks of a specific difficulty level indexed by $α$. Our goal is to understand the performance of the pretrained Transformer when evaluated on a different test distribution $μ$, consisting of tasks of fixed difficulty $β\in\mathcal{A}$, and with potential distribution shift relative to $π_β$, subject to the chi-squared divergence $χ^2(μ,π_β)$ being at most $κ$. In particular, we consider nonparametric regression problems with random smoothness, and multi-index models with random smoothness as well as random effective dimension. We prove that a large Transformer pretrained on sufficient data achieves the optimal rate of convergence corresponding to the difficulty level $β$, uniformly over test distributions $μ$ in the chi-squared divergence ball. Thus, the pretrained Transformer is able to achieve faster rates of convergence on easier tasks and is robust to distribution shift at test time. Finally, we prove that even if an estimator had access to the test distribution $μ$, the convergence rate of its expected risk over $μ$ could not be faster than that of our pretrained Transformers, thereby providing a more appropriate optimality guarantee than minimax lower bounds.