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 Statistical Learning


Hydra: Dual Exponentiated Memory for Multivariate Time Series Analysis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In recent years, effectively modeling multivariate time series has gained significant popularity, mainly due to its wide range of applications, ranging from healthcare to financial markets and energy management. Transformers, MLPs, and linear models as the de facto backbones of modern time series models have shown promising results in single-variant and/or short-term forecasting. These models, however: (1) are permutation equivariant and so lack temporal inductive bias, being less expressive to capture the temporal dynamics; (2) are naturally designed for univariate setup, missing the inter-dependencies of temporal and variate dimensions; and/or (3) are inefficient for Long-term time series modeling. To overcome training and inference efficiency as well as the lack of temporal inductive bias, recently, linear Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) have gained attention as an alternative to Transformer-based models. These models, however, are inherently limited to a single sequence, missing inter-variate dependencies, and can propagate errors due to their additive nature. In this paper, we present Hydra, a by-design two-headed meta in-context memory module that learns how to memorize patterns at test time by prioritizing time series patterns that are more informative about the data. Hydra uses a 2-dimensional recurrence across both time and variate at each step, which is more powerful than mixing methods. Although the 2-dimensional nature of the model makes its training recurrent and non-parallelizable, we present a new 2D-chunk-wise training algorithm that approximates the actual recurrence with $\times 10$ efficiency improvement, while maintaining the effectiveness. Our experimental results on a diverse set of tasks and datasets, including time series forecasting, classification, and anomaly detection show the superior performance of Hydra compared to state-of-the-art baselines.


Balanced Multimodal Learning via Mutual Information

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Multimodal learning aims to integrate complementary signals from diverse data types, yet in practice one modality often dominates training when information content, data quality, or sample size are imbalanced. This modality imbalance suppresses the benefits of integration and is especially problematic in biomedical applications such as multi-omics disease subtyping, where cohorts are small and assays vary in noise and coverage. Foundational syntheses emphasize fusion, alignment, and coordination as core challenges, but principled mechanisms that explicitly counter modality imbalance while preserving useful cross-modal structure remain limited [Baltruˇ saitis et al., 2018]. We propose a balanced multimodal framework for multi-omics classification that combines three ideas: (i) graph-based encoders that exploit cross-sample structure; (ii) cross-modal knowledge transfer to strengthen weaker modalities; and (iii) a multitask-style optimization procedure that adaptively reweights unimodal and multimodal losses based on performance signals and cross-modal dependence. Concretely, we employ a revised graph convolutional encoder in which node features may derive from a single modality, while edges are constructed from a fused similarity network across modalities. We then pretrain weaker modalities via knowledge distillation from a stronger teacher to transfer predictive structure without overfitting [Hinton et al., 2015, Furlanello et al., 2018]. Finally, we train the joint model with dynamic loss balancing so that no single modality dictates the gradients, leveraging advances in multitask optimization [Chen et al., 2018, Kendall et al., 2018]. 1


Using Synthetic Data to estimate the True Error is theoretically and practically doable

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Accurately evaluating model performance is crucial for deploying machine learning systems in real-world applications. Traditional methods often require a sufficiently large labeled test set to ensure a reliable evaluation. However, in many contexts, a large labeled dataset is costly and labor-intensive. Therefore, we sometimes have to do evaluation by a few labeled samples, which is theoretically challenging. Recent advances in generative models offer a promising alternative by enabling the synthesis of high-quality data. In this work, we make a systematic investigation about the use of synthetic data to estimate the test error of a trained model under limited labeled data conditions. To this end, we develop novel generalization bounds that take synthetic data into account. Those bounds suggest novel ways to optimize synthetic samples for evaluation and theoretically reveal the significant role of the generator's quality. Inspired by those bounds, we propose a theoretically grounded method to generate optimized synthetic data for model evaluation. Experimental results on simulation and tabular datasets demonstrate that, compared to existing baselines, our method achieves accurate and more reliable estimates of the test error.


Motion-Robust Multimodal Fusion of PPG and Accelerometer Signals for Three-Class Heart Rhythm Classification

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a leading cause of stroke and mortality, particularly in elderly patients. Wrist-worn photoplethysmography (PPG) enables non-invasive, continuous rhythm monitoring, yet suffers from significant vulnerability to motion artifacts and physiological noise. Many existing approaches rely solely on single-channel PPG and are limited to binary AF detection, often failing to capture the broader range of arrhythmias encountered in clinical settings. We introduce RhythmiNet, a residual neural network enhanced with temporal and channel attention modules that jointly leverage PPG and accelerometer (ACC) signals. The model performs three-class rhythm classification: AF, sinus rhythm (SR), and Other. To assess robustness across varying movement conditions, test data are stratified by accelerometer-based motion intensity percentiles without excluding any segments. RhythmiNet achieved a 4.3% improvement in macro-AUC over the PPG-only baseline. In addition, performance surpassed a logistic regression model based on handcrafted HRV features by 12%, highlighting the benefit of multimodal fusion and attention-based learning in noisy, real-world clinical data.


pacSTL: PAC-Bounded Signal Temporal Logic from Data-Driven Reachability Analysis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Real-world robotic systems must comply with safety requirements in the presence of uncertainty. To define and measure requirement adherence, Signal Temporal Logic (STL) offers a mathematically rigorous and expressive language. However, standard STL cannot account for uncertainty. We address this problem by presenting pacSTL, a framework that combines Probably Approximately Correct (PAC) bounded set predictions with an interval extension of STL through optimization problems on the atomic proposition level. pacSTL provides PAC-bounded robustness intervals on the specification level that can be utilized in monitoring. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach through maritime navigation and analyze the efficiency and scalability of pacSTL through simulation and real-world experimentation on model vessels.


Learning with Category-Equivariant Representations for Human Activity Recognition

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Human activity recognition is challenging because sensor signals shift with context, motion, and environment; effective models must therefore remain stable as the world around them changes. We introduce a categorical symmetry-aware learning framework that captures how signals vary over time, scale, and sensor hierarchy. We build these factors into the structure of feature representations, yielding models that automatically preserve the relationships between sensors and remain stable under realistic distortions such as time shifts, amplitude drift, and device orientation changes. On the UCI Human Activity Recognition benchmark, this categorical symmetry-driven design improves out-of-distribution accuracy by approx.


A Framework Based on Graph Cellular Automata for Similarity Evaluation in Urban Spatial Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Measuring similarity in urban spatial networks is key to understanding cities as complex systems. Yet most existing methods are not tailored for spatial networks and struggle to differentiate them effectively. We propose GCA-Sim, a similarity-evaluation framework based on graph cellular automata. Each submodel measures similarity by the divergence between value distributions recorded at multiple stages of an information evolution process. We find that some propagation rules magnify differences among network signals; we call this "network resonance." With an improved differentiable logic-gate network, we learn several submodels that induce network resonance. We evaluate similarity through clustering performance on fifty city-level and fifty district-level road networks. The submodels in this framework outperform existing methods, with Silhouette scores above 0.9. Using the best submodel, we further observe that planning-led street networks are less internally homogeneous than organically grown ones; morphological categories from different domains contribute with comparable importance; and degree, as a basic topological signal, becomes increasingly aligned with land value and related variables over iterations.


TRISKELION-1: Unified Descriptive-Predictive-Generative AI

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

TRISKELION-1 is a unified descriptive-predictive-generative architecture that integrates statistical, mechanistic, and generative reasoning within a single encoder-decoder framework. The model demonstrates how descriptive representation learning, predictive inference, and generative synthesis can be jointly optimized using variational objectives. Experiments on MNIST validate that descriptive reconstruction, predictive classification, and generative sampling can coexist stably within one model. The framework provides a blueprint toward universal intelligence architectures that connect interpretability, accuracy, and creativity.


More Than A Shortcut: A Hyperbolic Approach To Early-Exit Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Deploying accurate event detection on resource-constrained devices is challenged by the trade-off between performance and computational cost. While Early-Exit (EE) networks offer a solution through adaptive computation, they often fail to enforce a coherent hierarchical structure, limiting the reliability of their early predictions. To address this, we propose Hyperbolic Early-Exit networks (HypEE), a novel framework that learns EE representations in the hyperbolic space. Our core contribution is a hierarchical training objective with a novel entailment loss, which enforces a partial-ordering constraint to ensure that deeper network layers geometrically refine the representations of shallower ones. Experiments on multiple audio event detection tasks and backbone architectures show that HypEE significantly outperforms standard Euclidean EE baselines, especially at the earliest, most computationally-critical exits. The learned geometry also provides a principled measure of uncertainty, enabling a novel triggering mechanism that makes the overall system both more efficient and more accurate than a conventional EE and standard backbone models without early-exits.


Modeling the Construction of a Literary Archetype: The Case of the Detective Figure in French Literature

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This research explores the evolution of the detective archetype in French detective fiction through computational analysis. Using quantitative methods and character-level embeddings, we show that a supervised model is able to capture the unity of the detective archetype across 150 years of literature, from M. Lecoq (1866) to Commissaire Adamsberg (2017). Building on this finding, the study demonstrates how the detective figure evolves from a secondary narrative role to become the central character and the "reasoning machine" [35] of the classical detective story. In the aftermath of the Second World War, with the importation of the hardboiled tradition into France, the archetype becomes more complex, navigating the genre's turn toward social violence and moral ambiguity.