Statistical Learning
The Second Law of Intelligence: Controlling Ethical Entropy in Autonomous Systems
We propose that unconstrained artificial intelligence obeys a Second Law analogous to thermodynamics, where ethical entropy, defined as a measure of divergence from intended goals, increases spontaneously without continuous alignment work. For gradient-based optimizers, we define this entropy over a finite set of goals {g_i} as S = -ฮฃ p(g_i; theta) ln p(g_i; theta), and we prove that its time derivative dS/dt >= 0, driven by exploration noise and specification gaming. We derive the critical stability boundary for alignment work as gamma_crit = (lambda_max / 2) ln N, where lambda_max is the dominant eigenvalue of the Fisher Information Matrix and N is the number of model parameters. Simulations validate this theory. A 7-billion-parameter model (N = 7 x 10^9) with lambda_max = 1.2 drifts from an initial entropy of 0.32 to 1.69 +/- 1.08 nats, while a system regularized with alignment work gamma = 20.4 (1.5 gamma_crit) maintains stability at 0.00 +/- 0.00 nats (p = 4.19 x 10^-17, n = 20 trials). This framework recasts AI alignment as a problem of continuous thermodynamic control, providing a quantitative foundation for maintaining the stability and safety of advanced autonomous systems.
Geospatial Machine Learning Libraries
Stewart, Adam J., Robinson, Caleb, Banerjee, Arindam
Recent advances in machine learning have been supported by the emergence of domain-specific software libraries, enabling streamlined workflows and increased reproducibility. For geospatial machine learning (GeoML), the availability of Earth observation data has outpaced the development of domain libraries to handle its unique challenges, such as varying spatial resolutions, spectral properties, temporal cadence, data coverage, coordinate systems, and file formats. This chapter presents a comprehensive overview of GeoML libraries, analyzing their evolution, core functionalities, and the current ecosystem. It also introduces popular GeoML libraries such as TorchGeo, eo-learn, and Raster Vision, detailing their architecture, supported data types, and integration with ML frameworks. Additionally, it discusses common methodologies for data preprocessing, spatial--temporal joins, benchmarking, and the use of pretrained models. Through a case study in crop type mapping, it demonstrates practical applications of these tools. Best practices in software design, licensing, and testing are highlighted, along with open challenges and future directions, particularly the rise of foundation models and the need for governance in open-source geospatial software. Our aim is to guide practitioners, developers, and researchers in navigating and contributing to the rapidly evolving GeoML landscape.
Beyond Correlation: Causal Multi-View Unsupervised Feature Selection Learning
Shen, Zongxin, Huang, Yanyong, Wang, Bin, Chang, Jinyuan, Liu, Shiyu, Li, Tianrui
Multi-view unsupervised feature selection (MUFS) has recently received increasing attention for its promising ability in dimensionality reduction on multi-view unlabeled data. Existing MUFS methods typically select discriminative features by capturing correlations between features and clustering labels. However, an important yet underexplored question remains: \textit{Are such correlations sufficiently reliable to guide feature selection?} In this paper, we analyze MUFS from a causal perspective by introducing a novel structural causal model, which reveals that existing methods may select irrelevant features because they overlook spurious correlations caused by confounders. Building on this causal perspective, we propose a novel MUFS method called CAusal multi-view Unsupervised feature Selection leArning (CAUSA). Specifically, we first employ a generalized unsupervised spectral regression model that identifies informative features by capturing dependencies between features and consensus clustering labels. We then introduce a causal regularization module that can adaptively separate confounders from multi-view data and simultaneously learn view-shared sample weights to balance confounder distributions, thereby mitigating spurious correlations. Thereafter, integrating both into a unified learning framework enables CAUSA to select causally informative features. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that CAUSA outperforms several state-of-the-art methods. To our knowledge, this is the first in-depth study of causal multi-view feature selection in the unsupervised setting.
Revisiting (Un)Fairness in Recourse by Minimizing Worst-Case Social Burden
Barrainkua, Ainhize, De Toni, Giovanni, Lozano, Jose Antonio, Quadrianto, Novi
Machine learning based predictions are increasingly used in sensitive decision-making applications that directly affect our lives. This has led to extensive research into ensuring the fairness of classifiers. Beyond just fair classification, emerging legislation now mandates that when a classifier delivers a negative decision, it must also offer actionable steps an individual can take to reverse that outcome. This concept is known as algorithmic recourse. Nevertheless, many researchers have expressed concerns about the fairness guarantees within the recourse process itself. In this work, we provide a holistic theoretical characterization of unfairness in algorithmic recourse, formally linking fairness guarantees in recourse and classification, and highlighting limitations of the standard equal cost paradigm. We then introduce a novel fairness framework based on social burden, along with a practical algorithm (MISOB), broadly applicable under real-world conditions. Empirical results on real-world datasets show that MISOB reduces the social burden across all groups without compromising overall classifier accuracy.
Learning few-step posterior samplers by unfolding and distillation of diffusion models
Mbakam, Charlesquin Kemajou, Spence, Jonathan, Pereyra, Marcelo
Diffusion models (DMs) have emerged as powerful image priors in Bayesian computational imaging. Two primary strategies have been proposed for leveraging DMs in this context: Plug-and-Play methods, which are zero-shot and highly flexible but rely on approximations; and specialized conditional DMs, which achieve higher accuracy and faster inference for specific tasks through supervised training. In this work, we introduce a novel framework that integrates deep unfolding and model distillation to transform a DM image prior into a few-step conditional model for posterior sampling. A central innovation of our approach is the unfolding of a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm - specifically, the recently proposed LATINO Langevin sampler (Spagnoletti et al., 2025) - representing the first known instance of deep unfolding applied to a Monte Carlo sampling scheme. We demonstrate our proposed unfolded and distilled samplers through extensive experiments and comparisons with the state of the art, where they achieve excellent accuracy and computational efficiency, while retaining the flexibility to adapt to variations in the forward model at inference time.
Scalable Feature Learning on Huge Knowledge Graphs for Downstream Machine Learning
Lefebvre, Fรฉlix, Varoquaux, Gaรซl
Many machine learning tasks can benefit from external knowledge. Large knowledge graphs store such knowledge, and embedding methods can be used to distill it into ready-to-use vector representations for downstream applications. For this purpose, current models have however two limitations: they are primarily optimized for link prediction, via local contrastive learning, and their application to the largest graphs requires significant engineering effort due to GPU memory limits. To address these, we introduce SEPAL: a Scalable Embedding Propagation ALgorithm for large knowledge graphs designed to produce high-quality embeddings for downstream tasks at scale. The key idea of SEPAL is to ensure global embedding consistency by optimizing embeddings only on a small core of entities, and then propagating them to the rest of the graph with message passing. We evaluate SEPAL on 7 large-scale knowledge graphs and 46 downstream machine learning tasks. Our results show that SEPAL significantly outperforms previous methods on downstream tasks. In addition, SEPAL scales up its base embedding model, enabling fitting huge knowledge graphs on commodity hardware.
Foundation Models in Medical Imaging: A Review and Outlook
van Veldhuizen, Vivien, Botha, Vanessa, Lu, Chunyao, Cesur, Melis Erdal, Lipman, Kevin Groot, de Jong, Edwin D., Horlings, Hugo, Sanchez, Clรกrisa I., Snoek, Cees G. M., Wessels, Lodewyk, Mann, Ritse, Marcus, Eric, Teuwen, Jonas
Foundation models (FMs) are changing the way medical images are analyzed by learning from large collections of unlabeled data. Instead of relying on manually annotated examples, FMs are pre-trained to learn general-purpose visual features that can later be adapted to specific clinical tasks with little additional supervision. In this review, we examine how FMs are being developed and applied in pathology, radiology, and ophthalmology, drawing on evidence from over 150 studies. We explain the core components of FM pipelines, including model architectures, self-supervised learning methods, and strategies for downstream adaptation. We also review how FMs are being used in each imaging domain and compare design choices across applications. Finally, we discuss key challenges and open questions to guide future research.
An Analytical Characterization of Sloppiness in Neural Networks: Insights from Linear Models
Mao, Jialin, Griniasty, Itay, Sun, Yan, Transtrum, Mark K., Sethna, James P., Chaudhari, Pratik
Recent experiments have shown that training trajectories of multiple deep neural networks with different architectures, optimization algorithms, hyper-parameter settings, and regularization methods evolve on a remarkably low-dimensional "hyper-ribbon-like" manifold in the space of probability distributions. Inspired by the similarities in the training trajectories of deep networks and linear networks, we analytically characterize this phenomenon for the latter. We show, using tools in dynamical systems theory, that the geometry of this low-dimensional manifold is controlled by (i) the decay rate of the eigenvalues of the input correlation matrix of the training data, (ii) the relative scale of the ground-truth output to the weights at the beginning of training, and (iii) the number of steps of gradient descent. By analytically computing and bounding the contributions of these quantities, we characterize phase boundaries of the region where hyper-ribbons are to be expected. We also extend our analysis to kernel machines and linear models that are trained with stochastic gradient descent.
Non-Uniform Class-Wise Coreset Selection for Vision Model Fine-tuning
Zhang, Hanyu, Xing, Zhen, He, Ruian, Yang, Wenxuan, Ma, Chenxi, Tan, Weimin, Yan, Bo
Coreset selection aims to identify a small yet highly informative subset of data, thereby enabling more efficient model training while reducing storage overhead. Recently, this capability has been leveraged to tackle the challenges of fine-tuning large foundation models, offering a direct pathway to their efficient and practical deployment. However, most existing methods are class-agnostic, causing them to overlook significant difficulty variations among classes. This leads them to disproportionately prune samples from either overly easy or hard classes, resulting in a suboptimal allocation of the data budget that ultimately degrades the final coreset performance. T o address this limitation, we propose Non-Uniform Class-Wise Coreset Selection (NUCS), a novel framework that both integrates class-level and sample-level difficulty. W e propose a robust metric for global class difficulty, quantified as the winsorized average of per-sample difficulty scores. Guided by this metric, our method performs a theoretically-grounded, nonuniform allocation of data selection budgets inter-class, while adaptively selecting samples intra-class with optimal difficulty ranges. Extensive experiments on a wide range of visual classification tasks demonstrate that NUCS consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods across 10 diverse datasets and pre-trained models, achieving both superior accuracy and computational efficiency, highlighting the promise of non-uniform class-wise selection strategy for advancing the efficient fine-tuning of large foundation models.
Synthetic Survival Control: Extending Synthetic Controls for "When-If" Decision
Han, Jessy Xinyi, Shah, Devavrat
Estimating causal effects on time-to-event outcomes from observational data is particularly challenging due to censoring, limited sample sizes, and non-random treatment assignment. The need for answering such "when-if" questions--how the timing of an event would change under a specified intervention--commonly arises in real-world settings with heterogeneous treatment adoption and confounding. To address these challenges, we propose Synthetic Survival Control (SSC) to estimate counterfactual hazard trajectories in a panel data setting where multiple units experience potentially different treatments over multiple periods. In such a setting, SSC estimates the counterfactual hazard trajectory for a unit of interest as a weighted combination of the observed trajectories from other units. To provide formal justification, we introduce a panel framework with a low-rank structure for causal survival analysis. Indeed, such a structure naturally arises under classical parametric survival models. Within this framework, for the causal estimand of interest, we establish identification and finite sample guarantees for SSC. We validate our approach using a multi-country clinical dataset of cancer treatment outcomes, where the staggered introduction of new therapies creates a quasi-experimental setting. Empirically, we find that access to novel treatments is associated with improved survival, as reflected by lower post-intervention hazard trajectories relative to their synthetic counterparts. Given the broad relevance of survival analysis across medicine, economics, and public policy, our framework offers a general and interpretable tool for counterfactual survival inference using observational data.