Statistical Learning
Multi-layer Stack Ensembles for Time Series Forecasting
Bosch, Nathanael, Shchur, Oleksandr, Erickson, Nick, Bohlke-Schneider, Michael, Türkmen, Caner
Ensembling is a powerful technique for improving the accuracy of machine learning models, with methods like stacking achieving strong results in tabular tasks. In time series forecasting, however, ensemble methods remain underutilized, with simple linear combinations still considered state-of-the-art. In this paper, we systematically explore ensembling strategies for time series forecasting. We evaluate 33 ensemble models -- both existing and novel -- across 50 real-world datasets. Our results show that stacking consistently improves accuracy, though no single stacker performs best across all tasks. To address this, we propose a multi-layer stacking framework for time series forecasting, an approach that combines the strengths of different stacker models. We demonstrate that this method consistently provides superior accuracy across diverse forecasting scenarios. Our findings highlight the potential of stacking-based methods to improve AutoML systems for time series forecasting.
Fast Post-Hoc Confidence Fusion for 3-Class Open-Set Aerial Object Detection
Loukovitis, Spyridon, Karampinis, Vasileios, Voulodimos, Athanasios
Developing reliable UAV navigation systems requires robust air-to-air object detectors capable of distinguishing between objects seen during training and previously unseen objects. While many methods address closed-set detection and achieve high-confidence recognition of in-domain (ID) targets, they generally do not tackle open-set detection, which requires simultaneous handling of both ID and out-of-distribution (OOD) objects. Existing open-set approaches typically rely on a single uncertainty score with thresholding, limiting flexibility and often conflating OOD objects with background clutter. In contrast, we propose a lightweight, model-agnostic post-processing framework that explicitly separates background from unknown objects while preserving the base detector's performance. Our approach extends open-set detection beyond binary ID/OOD classification to real-time three-way classification among ID targets, OOD objects, and background. To this end, we employ a fusion scheme that aggregates multiple confidence estimates and per-detection features using a compact multilayer perceptron (MLP). Incorporating different logit variants into the MLP consistently enhances performance across both binary and three-class classification without compromising throughput. Extensive ablation and comparative experiments confirm that our method surpasses threshold-based baselines in two-class classification by an average of 2.7% AUROC, while retaining or improving open-set mAP. Furthermore, our study uniquely enables robust three-class classification, a critical capability for safe UAV navigation, where OOD objects must be actively avoided and background regions safely ignored. Comparative analysis highlights that our method surpasses competitive techniques in AUROC across datasets, while improving closed-set mAP by up to 9 points, an 18% relative gain.
On the Internal Semantics of Time-Series Foundation Models
Pandey, Atharva, Neog, Abhilash, Jajoo, Gautam
Time-series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have recently emerged as a universal paradigm for learning across diverse temporal domains. However, despite their empirical success, the internal mechanisms by which these models represent fundamental time-series concepts remain poorly understood. In this work, we undertake a systematic investigation of concept interpretability in TSFMs. Specifically, we examine: (i) which layers encode which concepts, (ii) whether concept parameters are linearly recoverable, (iii) how representations evolve in terms of concept disentanglement and abstraction across model depth, and (iv) how models process compositions of concepts. We systematically probe these questions using layer-wise analyses, linear recoverability tests, and representation similarity measures, providing a structured account of TSFM semantics. The resulting insights show that early layers mainly capture local, time-domain patterns (e.g., AR(1), level shifts, trends), while deeper layers encode dispersion and change-time signals, with spectral and warping factors remaining the hardest to recover linearly. In compositional settings, however, probe performance degrades, revealing interference between concepts. This highlights that while atomic concepts are reliably localized, composition remains a challenge, underscoring a key limitation in current TSFMs' ability to represent interacting temporal phenomena.
SNAP: Low-Latency Test-Time Adaptation with Sparse Updates
Cha, Hyeongheon, Kim, Dong Min, Chung, Hye Won, Gong, Taesik, Lee, Sung-Ju
Test-Time Adaptation (TTA) adjusts models using unlabeled test data to handle dynamic distribution shifts. However, existing methods rely on frequent adaptation and high computational cost, making them unsuitable for resource-constrained edge environments. To address this, we propose SNAP, a sparse TTA framework that reduces adaptation frequency and data usage while preserving accuracy. SNAP maintains competitive accuracy even when adapting based on only 1% of the incoming data stream, demonstrating its robustness under infrequent updates. Our method introduces two key components: (i) Class and Domain Representative Memory (CnDRM), which identifies and stores a small set of samples that are representative of both class and domain characteristics to support efficient adaptation with limited data; and (ii) Inference-only Batch-aware Memory Normalization (IoBMN), which dynamically adjusts normalization statistics at inference time by leveraging these representative samples, enabling efficient alignment to shifting target domains. Integrated with five state-of-the-art TTA algorithms, SNAP reduces latency by up to 93.12%, while keeping the accuracy drop below 3.3%, even across adaptation rates ranging from 1% to 50%. This demonstrates its strong potential for practical use on edge devices serving latency-sensitive applications. The source code is available at https://github.com/chahh9808/SNAP.
Graph Query Networks for Object Detection with Automotive Radar
Saini, Loveneet, Tercan, Hasan, Meisen, Tobias
Object detection with 3D radar is essential for 360-degree automotive perception, but radar's long wavelengths produce sparse and irregular reflections that challenge traditional grid and sequence-based convolutional and transformer detectors. This paper introduces Graph Query Networks (GQN), an attention-based framework that models objects sensed by radar as graphs, to extract individualized relational and contextual features. GQN employs a novel concept of graph queries to dynamically attend over the bird's-eye view (BEV) space, constructing object-specific graphs processed by two novel modules: EdgeFocus for relational reasoning and DeepContext Pooling for contextual aggregation. On the NuScenes dataset, GQN improves relative mAP by up to +53%, including a +8.2% gain over the strongest prior radar method, while reducing peak graph construction overhead by 80% with moderate FLOPs cost.
PLATONT: Learning a Platonic Representation for Unified Network Tomography
Du, Chengze, Xu, Heng, Yu, Zhiwei, Liu, Bo, Li, Jialong
Network tomography aims to infer hidden network states, such as link performance, traffic load, and topology, from external observations. Most existing methods solve these problems separately and depend on limited task-specific signals, which limits generalization and interpretability. We present PLATONT, a unified framework that models different network indicators (e.g., delay, loss, bandwidth) as projections of a shared latent network state. Guided by the Platonic Representation Hypothesis, PLATONT learns this latent state through multimodal alignment and contrastive learning. By training multiple tomography tasks within a shared latent space, it builds compact and structured representations that improve cross-task generalization. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets show that PLATONT consistently outperforms existing methods in link estimation, topology inference, and traffic prediction, achieving higher accuracy and stronger robustness under varying network conditions.
CASPER: Cross-modal Alignment of Spatial and single-cell Profiles for Expression Recovery
Kumar, Amit, Kaur, Maninder, Mall, Raghvendra, Gupta, Sukrit
Spatial Transcriptomics enables mapping of gene expression within its native tissue context, but current platforms measure only a limited set of genes due to experimental constraints and excessive costs. To overcome this, computational models integrate Single-Cell RNA Sequencing data with Spatial Transcriptomics to predict unmeasured genes. We propose CASPER, a cross-attention based framework that predicts unmeasured gene expression in Spatial Transcriptomics by leveraging centroid-level representations from Single-Cell RNA Sequencing. We performed rigorous testing over four state-of-the-art Spatial Transcriptomics/Single-Cell RNA Sequencing dataset pairs across four existing baseline models. CASPER shows significant improvement in nine out of the twelve metrics for our experiments. This work paves the way for further work in Spatial Transcriptomics to Single-Cell RNA Sequencing modality translation. The code for CASPER is available at https://github.com/AI4Med-Lab/CASPER.
Deep Pathomic Learning Defines Prognostic Subtypes and Molecular Drivers in Colorectal Cancer
Wang, Zisong, Wang, Xuanyu, Chen, Hang, Wang, Haizhou, Chen, Yuxin, Xu, Yihang, Yuan, Yunhe, Luo, Lihuan, Ling, Xitong, Liu, Xiaoping
Precise prognostic stratification of colorectal cancer (CRC) remains a major clinical challenge due to its high heterogeneity. The conventional TNM staging system is inadequate for personalized medicine. We aimed to develop and validate a novel multiple instance learning model TDAM-CRC using histopathological whole-slide images for accurate prognostic prediction and to uncover its underlying molecular mechanisms. We trained the model on the TCGA discovery cohort (n=581), validated it in an independent external cohort (n=1031), and further we integrated multi-omics data to improve model interpretability and identify novel prognostic biomarkers. The results demonstrated that the TDAM-CRC achieved robust risk stratification in both cohorts. Its predictive performance significantly outperformed the conventional clinical staging system and multiple state-of-the-art models. The TDAM-CRC risk score was confirmed as an independent prognostic factor in multivariable analysis. Multi-omics analysis revealed that the high-risk subtype is closely associated with metabolic reprogramming and an immunosuppressive tumor microenvironment. Through interaction network analysis, we identified and validated Mitochondrial Ribosomal Protein L37 (MRPL37) as a key hub gene linking deep pathomic features to clinical prognosis. We found that high expression of MRPL37, driven by promoter hypomethylation, serves as an independent biomarker of favorable prognosis. Finally, we constructed a nomogram incorporating the TDAM-CRC risk score and clinical factors to provide a precise and interpretable clinical decision-making tool for CRC patients. Our AI-driven pathological model TDAM-CRC provides a robust tool for improved CRC risk stratification, reveals new molecular targets, and facilitates personalized clinical decision-making.
Oversampling techniques for predicting COVID-19 patient length of stay
Farahany, Zachariah, Wu, Jiawei, Islam, K M Sajjadul, Madiraju, Praveen
Abstract--COVID-19 is a respiratory disease that caused a global pandemic in 2019. It is highly infectious and has the following symptoms: fever or chills, cough, shortness of breath, fatigue, muscle or body aches, headache, the new loss of taste or smell, sore throat, congestion or runny nose, nausea or vomiting, and diarrhea. These symptoms vary in severity; some people with many risk factors have been known to have lengthy hospital stays or die from the disease. In this paper, we analyze patients' electronic health records (EHR) to predict the severity of their COVID-19 infection using the length of stay (LOS) as our measurement of severity. This is an imbalanced classification problem, as many people have a shorter LOS rather than a longer one. T o combat this problem, we synthetically create alternate oversampled training data sets. Once we have this oversampled data, we run it through an Artificial Neural Network (ANN), which during training has its hyperparameters tuned by using bayesian optimization. We select the model with the best F1 score and then evaluate it and discuss it. COVID-19 is defined by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) as "a respiratory disease caused by SARS-CoV -2, a coronavirus discovered in 2019. The virus spreads mainly from person to person through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs, sneezes, or talks" [1]. Furthermore, they add, "For people who have symptoms, illness can range from mild to severe. Adults 65 years and older and people of any age with underlying medical conditions are at higher risk for severe illness" [1].In 2019 this novel coronavirus was first detected. The highly infectious nature of this disease, combined with the respiratory nature of the infection, caused a pandemic. Along with being highly contagious, COVID-19 also has an extensive range of symptoms such as fever or chills, cough, shortness of breath, fatigue, muscle or body aches, headache, the new loss of taste or smell, sore throat, congestion or runny nose, nausea or vomiting, and diarrhea [2]. Along with a long list of symptoms, COVID-19 has many risk factors, which may increase the severity of the infection.
Resource-Based Time and Cost Prediction in Project Networks: From Statistical Modeling to Graph Neural Networks
Mirjalili, Reza, Braghi, Behrad, Sikari, Shahram Shadrokh
Accurate prediction of project duration and cost remains one of the most challenging aspects of project management, particularly in resource-constrained and interdependent task networks. Traditional analytical techniques such as the Critical Path Method (CPM) and Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) rely on simplified and often static assumptions regarding task interdependencies and resource performance. This study proposes a novel resource-based predictive framework that integrates network representations of project activities with graph neural networks (GNNs) to capture structural and contextual relationships among tasks, resources, and time-cost dynamics. The model represents the project as a heterogeneous activity-resource graph in which nodes denote activities and resources, and edges encode temporal and resource dependencies. We evaluate multiple learning paradigms, including GraphSAGE and Temporal Graph Networks, on both synthetic and benchmark project datasets. Experimental results show that the proposed GNN framework achieves an average 23 to 31 percent reduction in mean absolute error compared to traditional regression and tree-based methods, while improving the coefficient of determination R2 from approximately 0.78 to 0.91 for large and complex project networks. Furthermore, the learned embeddings provide interpretable insights into resource bottlenecks and critical dependencies, enabling more explainable and adaptive scheduling decisions.