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 Statistical Learning


Relative Advantage Debiasing for Watch-Time Prediction in Short-Video Recommendation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Watch time is widely used as a proxy for user satisfaction in video recommendation platforms. However, raw watch times are influenced by confounding factors such as video duration, popularity, and individual user behaviors, potentially distorting preference signals and resulting in biased recommendation models. We propose a novel relative advantage debiasing framework that corrects watch time by comparing it to empirically derived reference distributions conditioned on user and item groups. This approach yields a quantile-based preference signal and introduces a two-stage architecture that explicitly separates distribution estimation from preference learning. Additionally, we present distributional embeddings to efficiently parameterize watch-time quantiles without requiring online sampling or storage of historical data. Both offline and online experiments demonstrate significant improvements in recommendation accuracy and robustness compared to existing baseline methods.


SAS: Simulated Attention Score

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The attention mechanism is a core component of the Transformer architecture. Various methods have been developed to compute attention scores, including multi-head attention (MHA), multi-query attention, group-query attention and so on. We further analyze the MHA and observe that its performance improves as the number of attention heads increases, provided the hidden size per head remains sufficiently large. Therefore, increasing both the head count and hidden size per head with minimal parameter overhead can lead to significant performance gains at a low cost. Motivated by this insight, we introduce Simulated Attention Score (SAS), which maintains a compact model size while simulating a larger number of attention heads and hidden feature dimension per head. This is achieved by projecting a low-dimensional head representation into a higher-dimensional space, effectively increasing attention capacity without increasing parameter count. Beyond the head representations, we further extend the simulation approach to feature dimension of the key and query embeddings, enhancing expressiveness by mimicking the behavior of a larger model while preserving the original model size. To control the parameter cost, we also propose Parameter-Efficient Attention Aggregation (PEAA). Comprehensive experiments on a variety of datasets and tasks demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed SAS method, achieving significant improvements over different attention variants.


Walking the Weight Manifold: a Topological Approach to Conditioning Inspired by Neuromodulation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

One frequently wishes to learn a range of similar tasks as efficiently as possible, re-using knowledge across tasks. In artificial neural networks, this is typically accomplished by conditioning a network upon task context by injecting context as input. Brains have a different strategy: the parameters themselves are modulated as a function of various neuromodulators such as serotonin. Here, we take inspiration from neuromodulation and propose to learn weights which are smoothly parameterized functions of task context variables. Rather than optimize a weight vector, i.e. a single point in weight space, we optimize a smooth manifold in weight space with a predefined topology. To accomplish this, we derive a formal treatment of optimization of manifolds as the minimization of a loss functional subject to a constraint on volumetric movement, analogous to gradient descent. During inference, conditioning selects a single point on this manifold which serves as the effective weight matrix for a particular sub-task. This strategy for conditioning has two main advantages. First, the topology of the manifold (whether a line, circle, or torus) is a convenient lever for inductive biases about the relationship between tasks. Second, learning in one state smoothly affects the entire manifold, encouraging generalization across states. To verify this, we train manifolds with several topologies, including straight lines in weight space (for conditioning on e.g. noise level in input data) and ellipses (for rotated images). Despite their simplicity, these parameterizations outperform conditioning identical networks by input concatenation and better generalize to out-of-distribution samples. These results suggest that modulating weights over low-dimensional manifolds offers a principled and effective alternative to traditional conditioning.


MA-COIR: Leveraging Semantic Search Index and Generative Models for Ontology-Driven Biomedical Concept Recognition

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recognizing biomedical concepts in the text is vital for ontology refinement, knowledge graph construction, and concept relationship discovery. However, traditional concept recognition methods, relying on explicit mention identification, often fail to capture complex concepts not explicitly stated in the text. To overcome this limitation, we introduce MA-COIR, a framework that reformulates concept recognition as an indexing-recognition task. By assigning semantic search indexes (ssIDs) to concepts, MA-COIR resolves ambiguities in ontology entries and enhances recognition efficiency. Using a pretrained BART-based model fine-tuned on small datasets, our approach reduces computational requirements to facilitate adoption by domain experts. Furthermore, we incorporate large language models (LLMs)-generated queries and synthetic data to improve recognition in low-resource settings. Experimental results on three scenarios (CDR, HPO, and HOIP) highlight the effectiveness of MA-COIR in recognizing both explicit and implicit concepts without the need for mention-level annotations during inference, advancing ontology-driven concept recognition in biomedical domain applications. Our code and constructed data are available at https://github.com/sl-633/macoir-master.


Energy-Aware Pattern Disentanglement: A Generalizable Pattern Assisted Architecture for Multi-task Time Series Analysis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Time series analysis has found widespread applications in areas such as weather forecasting, anomaly detection, and healthcare. While deep learning approaches have achieved significant success in this field, existing methods often adopt a "one-model one-task" architecture, limiting their generalization across different tasks. To address these limitations, we perform local energy analysis in the time-frequency domain to more precisely capture and disentangle transient and non-stationary oscillatory components. Furthermore, our representational analysis reveals that generative tasks tend to capture long-period patterns from low-frequency components, whereas discriminative tasks focus on high-frequency abrupt signals, which constitutes our core contribution. Concretely, we propose Pets, a novel "one-model many-tasks" architecture based on the General fluctuation Pattern Assisted (GPA) framework that is adaptable to versatile model structures for time series analysis. Pets integrates a Fluctuation Pattern Assisted (FPA) module and a Context-Guided Mixture of Predictors (MoP). The FPA module facilitates information fusion among diverse fluctuation patterns by capturing their dependencies and progressively modeling these patterns as latent representations at each layer. Meanwhile, the MoP module leverages these generalizable pattern representations to guide and regulate the reconstruction of distinct fluctuations hierarchically by energy proportion. Pets demonstrates strong versatility and achieves state-of-the-art performance across 60 benchmarks on various tasks, including forecasting, imputation, anomaly detection, and classification, while demonstrating strong generalization and robustness.


Position: Beyond Euclidean -- Foundation Models Should Embrace Non-Euclidean Geometries

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the era of foundation models and Large Language Models (LLMs), Euclidean space has been the de facto geometric setting for machine learning architectures. However, recent literature has demonstrated that this choice comes with fundamental limitations. At a large scale, real-world data often exhibits inherently non-Euclidean structures, such as multi-way relationships, hierarchies, symmetries, and non-isotropic scaling, in a variety of domains, such as languages, vision, and the natural sciences. It is challenging to effectively capture these structures within the constraints of Euclidean spaces. This position paper argues that moving beyond Euclidean geometry is not merely an optional enhancement but a necessity to maintain the scaling law for the next-generation of foundation models. By adopting these geometries, foundation models could more efficiently leverage the aforementioned structures. Task-aware adaptability that dynamically reconfigures embeddings to match the geometry of downstream applications could further enhance efficiency and expressivity. Our position is supported by a series of theoretical and empirical investigations of prevalent foundation models. Finally, we outline a roadmap for integrating non-Euclidean geometries into foundation models, including strategies for building geometric foundation models via fine-tuning, training from scratch, and hybrid approaches.


Reliable Selection of Heterogeneous Treatment Effect Estimators

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) has become a central topic across statistics, econometrics, and machine learning, with applications ranging from personalized medicine to policy evaluation [1, 2, 3]. A growing body of work has proposed flexible estimators to capture individual-level treatment heterogeneity, including tree-based methods [2], representation-learning approaches [4, 5], and meta-learners [6, 7]. Despite this abundance of methods, determining which estimator performs best for a given application remains an open and underexplored problem [8, 9]. A reliable selection mechanism is crucial for practitioners [10], as choosing suboptimal estimators can directly affect downstream decision-making [11]. Evaluating or comparing HTE estimators is inherently difficult because the ground truth is unobservable: for each individual, only one potential outcome is realized [12], while HTEs are defined as the difference between two. Due to the fundamental unobservability of the treatment effect, comparing two HTE estimators is already challenging, and the difficulty is further exacerbated when a collection of estimators are being compared simultaneously. To our knowledge, most papers that compare multiple HTE estimators rely on ground-truth or simulated values and use them to compute metrics such as the Precision in Estimation of Heterogeneous Effect (PEHE) and the A TE [13, 14]. However, these evaluation metrics are subject to fundamental limitations: ground-truth are unavailable in real-world observational studies, and simulated values depend critically on the chosen data-generating process and offer no formal statistical guarantees. In this paper, we develop a method for accurately selecting the best heterogeneous treatment effect estimator that operates without ground-truth information and provides provable error control.


Leveraging Sidewalk Robots for Walkability-Related Analyses

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Walkability is a key component of sustainable urban development. In walkability studies, collecting detailed pedestrian infrastructure data remains challenging due to the high costs and limited scalability of traditional methods. Sidewalk delivery robots, increasingly deployed in urban environments, offer a promising solution to these limitations. This paper explores how these robots can serve as mobile data collection platforms, capturing sidewalk-level features related to walkability in a scalable, automated, and real-time manner. A sensor-equipped robot was deployed on a sidewalk network at KTH in Stockholm, completing 101 trips covering 900 segment records. From the collected data, different typologies of features are derived, including robot trip characteristics (e.g., speed, duration), sidewalk conditions (e.g., width, surface unevenness), and sidewalk utilization (e.g., pedestrian density). Their walkability-related implications were investigated with a series of analyses. The results demonstrate that pedestrian movement patterns are strongly influenced by sidewalk characteristics, with higher density, reduced width, and surface irregularity associated with slower and more variable trajectories. Notably, robot speed closely mirrors pedestrian behavior, highlighting its potential as a proxy for assessing pedestrian dynamics. The proposed framework enables continuous monitoring of sidewalk conditions and pedestrian behavior, contributing to the development of more walkable, inclusive, and responsive urban environments.


Nonparametric Instrumental Variable Regression with Observed Covariates

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study the problem of nonparametric instrumental variable regression with observed covariates, which we refer to as NPIV-O. Compared with standard nonparametric instrumental variable regression (NPIV), the additional observed covariates facilitate causal identification and enables heterogeneous causal effect estimation. However, the presence of observed covariates introduces two challenges for its theoretical analysis. First, it induces a partial identity structure, which renders previous NPIV analyses - based on measures of ill-posedness, stability conditions, or link conditions - inapplicable. Second, it imposes anisotropic smoothness on the structural function. To address the first challenge, we introduce a novel Fourier measure of partial smoothing; for the second challenge, we extend the existing kernel 2SLS instrumental variable algorithm with observed covariates, termed KIV-O, to incorporate Gaussian kernel lengthscales adaptive to the anisotropic smoothness. We prove upper $L^2$-learning rates for KIV-O and the first $L^2$-minimax lower learning rates for NPIV-O. Both rates interpolate between known optimal rates of NPIV and nonparametric regression (NPR). Interestingly, we identify a gap between our upper and lower bounds, which arises from the choice of kernel lengthscales tuned to minimize a projected risk. Our theoretical analysis also applies to proximal causal inference, an emerging framework for causal effect estimation that shares the same conditional moment restriction as NPIV-O.


The Unified Non-Convex Framework for Robust Causal Inference: Overcoming the Gaussian Barrier and Optimization Fragility

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The contemporary enterprise of Causal Inference stands at a critical juncture, balancing precariously between the demands of high-dimensional statistical efficiency and the chaotic, uncurated reality of modern data streams. For the better part of the last decade, the dominant paradigm in this field has been Double Machine Learning (DML), a sophisticated methodological framework introduced by Chernozhukov et al. (2018). This framework leverages the geometric concept of Neyman orthogonality to immunize estimates of treatment effects against the inevitable errors that arise during the estimation of nuisance parameters. While DML is theoretically elegant and has revolutionized the application of machine learning to econometrics, it possesses a fundamental Achilles' heel: it relies almost exclusively on convex loss functions--typically the squared error for regression or the logistic loss for classification. As established in the foundational robustness literature by Hampel et al. (1986), convex loss functions are inextricably linked to unbounded influence functions.