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Elementary Symmetric Polynomials for Optimal Experimental Design

Neural Information Processing Systems

We revisit the classical problem of optimal experimental design (OED) under a new mathematical model grounded in a geometric motivation. Specifically, we introduce models based on elementary symmetric polynomials; these polynomials capture "partial volumes" and offer a graded interpolation between the widely used A-optimal design and D-optimal design models, obtaining each of them as special cases. We analyze properties of our models, and derive both greedy and convex-relaxation algorithms for computing the associated designs. Our analysis establishes approximation guarantees on these algorithms, while our empirical results substantiate our claims and demonstrate a curious phenomenon concerning our greedy method. Finally, as a byproduct, we obtain new results on the theory of elementary symmetric polynomials that may be of independent interest.




PersonaDrift: A Benchmark for Temporal Anomaly Detection in Language-Based Dementia Monitoring

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

People living with dementia (PLwD) often show gradual shifts in how they communicate, becoming less expressive, more repetitive, or drifting off-topic in subtle ways. While caregivers may notice these changes informally, most computational tools are not designed to track such behavioral drift over time. This paper introduces PersonaDrift, a synthetic benchmark designed to evaluate machine learning and statistical methods for detecting progressive changes in daily communication, focusing on user responses to a digital reminder system. PersonaDrift simulates 60-day interaction logs for synthetic users modeled after real PLwD, based on interviews with caregivers. These caregiver-informed personas vary in tone, modality, and communication habits, enabling realistic diversity in behavior. The benchmark focuses on two forms of longitudinal change that caregivers highlighted as particularly salient: flattened sentiment (reduced emotional tone and verbosity) and off-topic replies (semantic drift). These changes are injected progressively at different rates to emulate naturalistic cognitive trajectories, and the framework is designed to be extensible to additional behaviors in future use cases. To explore this novel application space, we evaluate several anomaly detection approaches, unsupervised statistical methods (CUSUM, EWMA, One-Class SVM), sequence models using contextual embeddings (GRU + BERT), and supervised classifiers in both generalized and personalized settings. Preliminary results show that flattened sentiment can often be detected with simple statistical models in users with low baseline variability, while detecting semantic drift requires temporal modeling and personalized baselines. Across both tasks, personalized classifiers consistently outperform generalized ones, highlighting the importance of individual behavioral context.


Machine Learning Epidemic Predictions Using Agent-based Wireless Sensor Network Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Given Name Surname line 2: dept. Abstract -- The lack of epidemiological data in wireless sensor networks (WSNs) is a fundamental difficulty in constructing robust models to forecast and mitigate threats like viruses and worms. Many studies have looked at different epidemic models for WSNs, focusing on the manner in which malware infections spread given the network's specific properties, including energy limits and node mobili ty. In this study, an agent - based realization of the susceptible - exposed - infected - recovered - vaccinated (SEIRV) mathematical model was employed for machine learning (ML) predictions. Using tools such as Netlogo's BehaviorSpace and Python, two epidemic synth etic datasets were generated and prepared for the application of several ML algorithms. Posed as a regression problem, the infected and recovered nodes were predicted, and the performance of these algorithms is compared using the error metrics of the train and the test sets. The predictions performed quite well, with low error metrics and high R values (0.997, 1.000, 0.999, 1.000), indicating an effective fit to the training set. The validation values were lowered (0.992, 0.998, 0.971, and 0.999), as is ty pical when evaluating model performance on unknown data. Judging from the recorded performances, support vector, linear, Lasso, Ridge, and ElasticNet regression were among the worst performing algorithms, while Random Forest, XGBoost, Decision Trees, and K nearest neighbor had the best model performances. In recent years, the globe as we know it has been changing due to bre akthroughs in numerous linked innovations including smart electrical grids [1], the IoT, long - term evolution, 5G connectivity [2] and cyber physical systems [3] such as wireless sensor networks (WSN).


Efficient Chromosome Parallelization for Precision Medicine Genomic Workflows

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large-scale genomic workflows used in precision medicine can process datasets spanning tens to hundreds of gigabytes per sample, leading to high memory spikes, intensive disk I/O, and task failures due to out-of-memory errors. Simple static resource allocation methods struggle to handle the variability in per-chromosome RAM demands, resulting in poor resource utilization and long runtimes. In this work, we propose multiple mechanisms for adaptive, RAM-efficient par-allelization of chromosome-level bioinformatics workflows. First, we develop a symbolic regression model that estimates per-chromosome memory consumption for a given task and introduces an interpolating bias to conservatively minimize over-allocation. Second, we present a dynamic scheduler that adaptively predicts RAM usage with a polynomial regression model, treating task packing as a Knapsack problem to optimally batch jobs based on predicted memory requirements. Additionally, we present a static scheduler that optimizes chromosome processing order to minimize peak memory while preserving throughput. Our proposed methods, evaluated on simulations and real-world genomic pipelines, provide new mechanisms to reduce memory overruns and balance load across threads. We thereby achieve faster end-to-end execution, showcasing the potential to optimize large-scale genomic workflows.


What Really Counts? Examining Step and Token Level Attribution in Multilingual CoT Reasoning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study investigates the attribution patterns underlying Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning in multilingual LLMs. While prior works demonstrate the role of CoT prompting in improving task performance, there are concerns regarding the faithfulness and interpretability of the generated reasoning chains. To assess these properties across languages, we applied two complementary attribution methods--ContextCite for step-level attribution and Inseq for token-level attribution--to the Qwen2.5 1.5B-Instruct model using the MGSM benchmark. Our experimental results highlight key findings such as: (1) attribution scores excessively emphasize the final reasoning step, particularly in incorrect generations; (2) structured CoT prompting significantly improves accuracy primarily for high-resource Latin-script languages; and (3) controlled perturbations via negation and distractor sentences reduce model accuracy and attribution coherence. These findings highlight the limitations of CoT prompting, particularly in terms of multilingual robustness and interpretive transparency.


BrainRotViT: Transformer-ResNet Hybrid for Explainable Modeling of Brain Aging from 3D sMRI

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The human brain undergoes continuous transformations across the lifespan, representing a natural component of aging that does not inherently signal pathological conditions [1]. Neurodegenerative disorders such as dementia can compromise the brain structure and accelerate aging processes. Understanding and characterizing healthy brain aging patterns therefore becomes essential for distinguishing normal aging from pathological neurodegeneration, potentially enabling earlier detection of neurodegenerative diseases. The Brain Age-Gap (BAG), i.e. the discrepancy between predicted brain age and chronological age, has emerged as a robust biomarker that captures pathological brain processes and offers insights into the rate at which an individual's brain ages in comparison to others in the population [2, 3]. It is not only associated with various neurological disorders, such as Alzheimer's disease, cognitive impairment, and Autism Spectrum Disorder, but also serves as an indicator of all-cause mortality [4, 5, 6, 7, 8] Brain age estimation has been approached through both conventional and machine learning techniques, analyzing either the whole brain, specific regions, or localized patches [9, 10, 11]. One particular study presented a method using T1-weighted MRI to predict age through region-level and voxel-level metrics [12]. Regression-based machine learning has shown promise for the brain age prediction, with kernel regression applied to whole-brain MRI across diverse age ranges [13]. Various algorithms including Support Vector Regression and Binary Decision Trees have been compared for their brain age prediction capabilities [14]. Additional regression techniques such as Relevance Vector Regression, Twin Support Vector Regression, and Gaussian Process Regression have been explored across different imaging modalities for age estimation and mortality prediction [11, 15, 16, 17].


Bayesian Semiparametric Causal Inference: Targeted Doubly Robust Estimation of Treatment Effects

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose a semiparametric Bayesian methodology for estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) within the potential outcomes framework using observational data with high-dimensional nuisance parameters. Our method introduces a Bayesian debiasing procedure that corrects for bias arising from nuisance estimation and employs a targeted modeling strategy based on summary statistics rather than the full data. These summary statistics are identified in a debiased manner, enabling the estimation of nuisance bias via weighted observables and facilitating hierarchical learning of the ATE. By combining debiasing with sample splitting, our approach separates nuisance estimation from inference on the target parameter, reducing sensitivity to nuisance model specification. We establish that, under mild conditions, the marginal posterior for the ATE satisfies a Bernstein-von Mises theorem when both nuisance models are correctly specified and remains consistent and robust when only one is correct, achieving Bayesian double robustness. This ensures asymptotic efficiency and frequentist validity. Extensive simulations confirm the theoretical results, demonstrating accurate point estimation and credible intervals with nominal coverage, even in high-dimensional settings. The proposed framework can also be extended to other causal estimands, and its key principles offer a general foundation for advancing Bayesian semiparametric inference more broadly.


Cross-Balancing for Data-Informed Design and Efficient Analysis of Observational Studies

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Causal inference starts with a simple idea: compare groups that differ by treatment, not much else. Traditionally, similar groups are constructed using only observed covariates; however, it remains a long-standing challenge to incorporate available outcome data into the study design while preserving valid inference. In this paper, we study the general problem of covariate adjustment, effect estimation, and statistical inference when balancing features are constructed or selected with the aid of outcome information from the data. We propose cross-balancing, a method that uses sample splitting to separate the error in feature construction from the error in weight estimation. Our framework addresses two cases: one where the features are learned functions and one where they are selected from a potentially high-dimensional dictionary. In both cases, we establish mild and general conditions under which cross-balancing produces consistent, asymptotically normal, and efficient estimators. In the learned-function case, cross-balancing achieves finite-sample bias reduction relative to plug-in-type estimators, and is multiply robust when the learned features converge at slow rates. In the variable-selection case, cross-balancing only requires a product condition on how well the selected variables approximate true functions. We illustrate cross-balancing in extensive simulations and an observational study, showing that careful use of outcome information can substantially improve both estimation and inference while maintaining interpretability.