Regression
Beyond Demographic Parity: Redefining Equal Treatment
Mougan, Carlos, State, Laura, Ferrara, Antonio, Ruggieri, Salvatore, Staab, Steffen
Liberalism-oriented political philosophy reasons that all individuals should be treated equally independently of their protected characteristics. Related work in machine learning has translated the concept of \emph{equal treatment} into terms of \emph{equal outcome} and measured it as \emph{demographic parity} (also called \emph{statistical parity}). Our analysis reveals that the two concepts of equal outcome and equal treatment diverge; therefore, demographic parity does not faithfully represent the notion of \emph{equal treatment}. We propose a new formalization for equal treatment by (i) considering the influence of feature values on predictions, such as computed by Shapley values decomposing predictions across its features, (ii) defining distributions of explanations, and (iii) comparing explanation distributions between populations with different protected characteristics. We show the theoretical properties of our notion of equal treatment and devise a classifier two-sample test based on the AUC of an equal treatment inspector. We study our formalization of equal treatment on synthetic and natural data. We release \texttt{explanationspace}, an open-source Python package with methods and tutorials.
NAG-GS: Semi-Implicit, Accelerated and Robust Stochastic Optimizer
Leplat, Valentin, Merkulov, Daniil, Katrutsa, Aleksandr, Bershatsky, Daniel, Tsymboi, Olga, Oseledets, Ivan
Classical machine learning models such as deep neural networks are usually trained by using Stochastic Gradient Descent-based (SGD) algorithms. The classical SGD can be interpreted as a discretization of the stochastic gradient flow. In this paper we propose a novel, robust and accelerated stochastic optimizer that relies on two key elements: (1) an accelerated Nesterov-like Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) and (2) its semi-implicit Gauss-Seidel type discretization. The convergence and stability of the obtained method, referred to as NAG-GS, are first studied extensively in the case of the minimization of a quadratic function. This analysis allows us to come up with an optimal learning rate in terms of the convergence rate while ensuring the stability of NAG-GS. This is achieved by the careful analysis of the spectral radius of the iteration matrix and the covariance matrix at stationarity with respect to all hyperparameters of our method. Further, we show that NAG- GS is competitive with state-of-the-art methods such as momentum SGD with weight decay and AdamW for the training of machine learning models such as the logistic regression model, the residual networks models on standard computer vision datasets, Transformers in the frame of the GLUE benchmark and the recent Vision Transformers.
Age Group Discrimination via Free Handwriting Indicators
Lomurno, Eugenio, Toffoli, Simone, Di Febbo, Davide, Matteucci, Matteo, Lunardini, Francesca, Ferrante, Simona
The growing global elderly population is expected to increase the prevalence of frailty, posing significant challenges to healthcare systems. Frailty, a syndrome associated with ageing, is characterised by progressive health decline, increased vulnerability to stressors and increased risk of mortality. It represents a significant burden on public health and reduces the quality of life of those affected. The lack of a universally accepted method to assess frailty and a standardised definition highlights a critical research gap. Given this lack and the importance of early prevention, this study presents an innovative approach using an instrumented ink pen to ecologically assess handwriting for age group classification. Content-free handwriting data from 80 healthy participants in different age groups (20-40, 41-60, 61-70 and 70+) were analysed. Fourteen gesture- and tremor-related indicators were computed from the raw data and used in five classification tasks. These tasks included discriminating between adjacent and non-adjacent age groups using Catboost and Logistic Regression classifiers. Results indicate exceptional classifier performance, with accuracy ranging from 82.5% to 97.5%, precision from 81.8% to 100%, recall from 75% to 100% and ROC-AUC from 92.2% to 100%. Model interpretability, facilitated by SHAP analysis, revealed age-dependent sensitivity of temporal and tremor-related handwriting features. Importantly, this classification method offers potential for early detection of abnormal signs of ageing in uncontrolled settings such as remote home monitoring, thereby addressing the critical issue of frailty detection and contributing to improved care for older adults.
Minimising the Expected Posterior Entropy Yields Optimal Summary Statistics
Hoffmann, Till, Onnela, Jukka-Pekka
Extracting low-dimensional summary statistics from large datasets is essential for efficient (likelihood-free) inference. We characterise different classes of summaries and demonstrate their importance for correctly analysing dimensionality reduction algorithms. We propose obtaining summaries by minimising the expected posterior entropy (EPE) under the prior predictive distribution of the model. Many existing methods are equivalent to or are special or limiting cases of minimising the EPE. We develop a method to obtain high-fidelity summaries that minimise the EPE; we apply it to benchmark and real-world examples. We both offer a unifying perspective for obtaining informative summaries and provide concrete recommendations for practitioners.
Risk-Adaptive Approaches to Learning and Decision Making: A Survey
Uncertainty is prevalent in engineering design, statistical learning, and decision making broadly. Due to inherent risk-averseness and ambiguity about assumptions, it is common to address uncertainty by formulating and solving conservative optimization models expressed using measures of risk and related concepts. We survey the rapid development of risk measures over the last quarter century. From their beginning in financial engineering, we recount the spread to nearly all areas of engineering and applied mathematics. Solidly rooted in convex analysis, risk measures furnish a general framework for handling uncertainty with significant computational and theoretical advantages. We describe the key facts, list several concrete algorithms, and provide an extensive list of references for further reading. The survey recalls connections with utility theory and distributionally robust optimization, points to emerging applications areas such as fair machine learning, and defines measures of reliability.
Vertical Federated Learning: Concepts, Advances and Challenges
Liu, Yang, Kang, Yan, Zou, Tianyuan, Pu, Yanhong, He, Yuanqin, Ye, Xiaozhou, Ouyang, Ye, Zhang, Ya-Qin, Yang, Qiang
Federated Learning (FL) [1] is a novel machine learning paradigm where multiple parties collaboratively build machine learning models without centralizing their data. The concept of FL was first proposed by Google in 2016 [2] to describe a cross-device scenario where millions of mobile devices are coordinated by a central server while local data are not transferred. This concept is soon extended to a cross-silo collaboration scenario among organizations [3], where a small number of reliable organizations join a federation to train a machine learning model. In [3], FL is, for the first time, categorized into three categories based on how data is partitioned in the sample and feature space: Horizontal Federated Learning (HFL), Vertical Federated Learning (VFL) and Federated Transfer Learning (FTL) (See Figure 1). HFL refers to the FL setting where participants share the same feature space while holding different samples. For example, Google uses HFL to allow mobile phone users to use their dataset to collaboratively train a next-word prediction model [2]. VFL refers to the FL setting where datasets share the same samples/users while holding different features. For example, Webank uses VFL to collaborate with an invoice agency to build financial risk models for their enterprise customers [4].
Asymptotic Characterisation of Robust Empirical Risk Minimisation Performance in the Presence of Outliers
Vilucchio, Matteo, Troiani, Emanuele, Erba, Vittorio, Krzakala, Florent
We study robust linear regression in high-dimension, when both the dimension $d$ and the number of data points $n$ diverge with a fixed ratio $\alpha=n/d$, and study a data model that includes outliers. We provide exact asymptotics for the performances of the empirical risk minimisation (ERM) using $\ell_2$-regularised $\ell_2$, $\ell_1$, and Huber losses, which are the standard approach to such problems. We focus on two metrics for the performance: the generalisation error to similar datasets with outliers, and the estimation error of the original, unpolluted function. Our results are compared with the information theoretic Bayes-optimal estimation bound. For the generalization error, we find that optimally-regularised ERM is asymptotically consistent in the large sample complexity limit if one perform a simple calibration, and compute the rates of convergence. For the estimation error however, we show that due to a norm calibration mismatch, the consistency of the estimator requires an oracle estimate of the optimal norm, or the presence of a cross-validation set not corrupted by the outliers. We examine in detail how performance depends on the loss function and on the degree of outlier corruption in the training set and identify a region of parameters where the optimal performance of the Huber loss is identical to that of the $\ell_2$ loss, offering insights into the use cases of different loss functions.
Hebbian learning inspired estimation of the linear regression parameters from queries
Schmidt-Hieber, Johannes, Koolen, Wouter M
Local learning rules in biological neural networks (BNNs) are commonly referred to as Hebbian learning. [26] links a biologically motivated Hebbian learning rule to a specific zeroth-order optimization method. In this work, we study a variation of this Hebbian learning rule to recover the regression vector in the linear regression model. Zeroth-order optimization methods are known to converge with suboptimal rate for large parameter dimension compared to first-order methods like gradient descent, and are therefore thought to be in general inferior. By establishing upper and lower bounds, we show, however, that such methods achieve near-optimal rates if only queries of the linear regression loss are available. Moreover, we prove that this Hebbian learning rule can achieve considerably faster rates than any non-adaptive method that selects the queries independently of the data.
How to Catch an AI Liar: Lie Detection in Black-Box LLMs by Asking Unrelated Questions
Pacchiardi, Lorenzo, Chan, Alex J., Mindermann, Sรถren, Moscovitz, Ilan, Pan, Alexa Y., Gal, Yarin, Evans, Owain, Brauner, Jan
Large language models (LLMs) can "lie", which we define as outputting false statements despite "knowing" the truth in a demonstrable sense. LLMs might "lie", for example, when instructed to output misinformation. Here, we develop a simple lie detector that requires neither access to the LLM's activations (black-box) nor ground-truth knowledge of the fact in question. The detector works by asking a predefined set of unrelated follow-up questions after a suspected lie, and feeding the LLM's yes/no answers into a logistic regression classifier. Despite its simplicity, this lie detector is highly accurate and surprisingly general. When trained on examples from a single setting -- prompting GPT-3.5 to lie about factual questions -- the detector generalises out-of-distribution to (1) other LLM architectures, (2) LLMs fine-tuned to lie, (3) sycophantic lies, and (4) lies emerging in real-life scenarios such as sales. These results indicate that LLMs have distinctive lie-related behavioural patterns, consistent across architectures and contexts, which could enable general-purpose lie detection.
Beyond Log-Concavity: Theory and Algorithm for Sum-Log-Concave Optimization
This paper extends the classic theory of convex optimization to the minimization of functions that are equal to the negated logarithm of what we term as a sum-log-concave function, i.e., a sum of log-concave functions. In particular, we show that such functions are in general not convex but still satisfy generalized convexity inequalities. These inequalities unveil the key importance of a certain vector that we call the cross-gradient and that is, in general, distinct from the usual gradient. Thus, we propose the Cross Gradient Descent (XGD) algorithm moving in the opposite direction of the cross-gradient and derive a convergence analysis. As an application of our sum-log-concave framework, we introduce the so-called checkered regression method relying on a sum-log-concave function. This classifier extends (multiclass) logistic regression to non-linearly separable problems since it is capable of tessellating the feature space by using any given number of hyperplanes, creating a checkerboard-like pattern of decision regions.