Regression
No Thoughts Just AI: Biased LLM Hiring Recommendations Alter Human Decision Making and Limit Human Autonomy
Wilson, Kyra, Sim, Mattea, Gueorguieva, Anna-Maria, Caliskan, Aylin
In this study, we conduct a resume-screening experiment (N=528) where people collaborate with simulated AI models exhibiting race-based preferences (bias) to evaluate candidates for 16 high and low status occupations. Simulated AI bias approximates factual and counterfactual estimates of racial bias in real-world AI systems. We investigate people's preferences for White, Black, Hispanic, and Asian candidates (represented through names and affinity groups on quality-controlled resumes) across 1,526 scenarios and measure their unconscious associations between race and status using implicit association tests (IATs), which predict discriminatory hiring decisions but have not been investigated in human-AI collaboration. When making decisions without AI or with AI that exhibits no race-based preferences, people select all candidates at equal rates. However, when interacting with AI favoring a particular group, people also favor those candidates up to 90% of the time, indicating a significant behavioral shift. The likelihood of selecting candidates whose identities do not align with common race-status stereotypes can increase by 13% if people complete an IAT before conducting resume screening. Finally, even if people think AI recommendations are low quality or not important, their decisions are still vulnerable to AI bias under certain circumstances. This work has implications for people's autonomy in AI-HITL scenarios, AI and work, design and evaluation of AI hiring systems, and strategies for mitigating bias in collaborative decision-making tasks. In particular, organizational and regulatory policy should acknowledge the complex nature of AI-HITL decision making when implementing these systems, educating people who use them, and determining which are subject to oversight.
Basis Vector Metric: A Method for Robust Open-Ended State Change Detection
We test a new method, which we will abbreviate using the acronym BVM (Basis Vectors Method), in its ability to judge the state changes in images through using language embeddings. We used the MIT-States dataset, containing about 53,000 images, to gather all of our data, which has 225 nouns and 115 adjectives, with each noun having about 9 different adjectives, forming approximately 1000 noun-adjective pairs. For our first experiment, we test our method's ability to determine the state of each noun class separately against other metrics for comparison. These metrics are cosine similarity, dot product, product quantization, binary index, Naive Bayes, and a custom neural network. Among these metrics, we found that our proposed BVM performs the best in classifying the states for each noun. We then perform a second experiment where we try using BVM to determine if it can differentiate adjectives from one another for each adjective separately. We compared the abilities of BVM to differentiate adjectives against the proposed method the MIT-States paper suggests: using a logistic regression model. In the end, we did not find conclusive evidence that our BVM metric could perform better than the logistic regression model at discerning adjectives. Yet, we were able to find evidence for possible improvements to our method; this leads to the chance of increasing our method's accuracy through certain changes in our methodologies.
The Measure of Deception: An Analysis of Data Forging in Machine Unlearning
Dixit, Rishabh, Hui, Yuan, Saab, Rayan
Motivated by privacy regulations and the need to mitigate the effects of harmful data, machine unlearning seeks to modify trained models so that they effectively ``forget'' designated data. A key challenge in verifying unlearning is forging -- adversarially crafting data that mimics the gradient of a target point, thereby creating the appearance of unlearning without actually removing information. To capture this phenomenon, we consider the collection of data points whose gradients approximate a target gradient within tolerance $ε$ -- which we call an $ε$-forging set -- and develop a framework for its analysis. For linear regression and one-layer neural networks, we show that the Lebesgue measure of this set is small. It scales on the order of $ε$, and when $ε$ is small enough, $ε^d$. More generally, under mild regularity assumptions, we prove that the forging set measure decays as $ε^{(d-r)/2}$, where $d$ is the data dimension and $r
Robust Analysis for Resilient AI System
Wang, Yu, Jin, Ran, Kang, Lulu
Abstract--Operational hazards in Manufacturing Industrial Internet (MII) systems generate severe data outliers that cripple traditional statistical analysis. This paper proposes a novel robust regression method, DPD-Lasso, which integrates Density Power Divergence with Lasso regularization to analyze contaminated data from AI resilience experiments. We develop an efficient iterative algorithm to overcome previous computational bottlenecks. Applied to an MII testbed for Aerosol Jet Printing, DPD-Lasso provides reliable, stable performance on both clean and outlier-contaminated data, accurately quantifying hazard impacts. This work establishes robust regression as an essential tool for developing and validating resilient industrial AI systems. The integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) into the Manufacturing Industrial Internet (MII) has become a paradigm for enhancing efficiency, enabling predictive maintenance, and optimizing complex processes.
No Translation Needed: Forecasting Quality from Fertility and Metadata
Lundin, Jessica M., Zhang, Ada, Adelani, David, Carroll, Cody
We show that translation quality can be predicted with surprising accuracy \textit{without ever running the translation system itself}. Using only a handful of features, token fertility ratios, token counts, and basic linguistic metadata (language family, script, and region), we can forecast ChrF scores for GPT-4o translations across 203 languages in the FLORES-200 benchmark. Gradient boosting models achieve favorable performance ($R^{2}=0.66$ for XX$\rightarrow$English and $R^{2}=0.72$ for English$\rightarrow$XX). Feature importance analyses reveal that typological factors dominate predictions into English, while fertility plays a larger role for translations into diverse target languages. These findings suggest that translation quality is shaped by both token-level fertility and broader linguistic typology, offering new insights for multilingual evaluation and quality estimation.
Variational Garrote for Statistical Physics-based Sparse and Robust Variable Selection
Soh, Hyungjoon, Lee, Dongha, Periwal, Vipul, Jo, Junghyo
Identifying relationships between variables is a fundamental task in science. Among various approaches, linear regression plays a central role in linking explanatory variables to dependent variables in statistical modeling [1, 2]. Linear regression is useful in physics [3, 4] for extracting equations of motion from time series data [5] and for predicting trends in dynamical systems [6], but its simplicity, interpretability, and predictive power make it a cornerstone of data analysis [7], forecasting [8], and decision-making [9] in many fields. Moreover, linear regression forms the foundation for many advanced statistical and machine learning models [10], including logistic regression [11], support vector machines [12], and generalized linear models [13]. Extensions of linear regression often aim to capture more complex relationships by introducing higher-order polynomial terms or additional nonlinear transformations. Modern developments in machine learning have enabled the training of deep and highly overparameterized models capable of modeling intricate patterns far beyond the reach of simple linear approaches. In particular, deep learning models can be interpreted as sophisticated forms of nonlinear regression [14], capable of approximating complex functions with high flexibility. Despite its utility, linear regression struggles with modern high-dimensional datasets where only a small subset of variables is truly informative.
A Narrative-Driven Computational Framework for Clinician Burnout Surveillance
Bukhari, Syed Ahmad Chan, Keshtkar, Fazel, Meczkowska, Alyssa
Clinician burnout poses a substantial threat to patient safety, particularly in high-acuity intensive care units (ICUs). Existing research predominantly relies on retrospective survey tools or broad electronic health record (EHR) metadata, often overlooking the valuable narrative information embedded in clinical notes. In this study, we analyze 10,000 ICU discharge summaries from MIMIC-IV, a publicly available database derived from the electronic health records of Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center. The dataset encompasses diverse patient data, including vital signs, medical orders, diagnoses, procedures, treatments, and deidentified free-text clinical notes. We introduce a hybrid pipeline that combines BioBERT sentiment embeddings fine-tuned for clinical narratives, a lexical stress lexicon tailored for clinician burnout surveillance, and five-topic latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) with workload proxies. A provider-level logistic regression classifier achieves a precision of 0.80, a recall of 0.89, and an F1 score of 0.84 on a stratified hold-out set, surpassing metadata-only baselines by greater than or equal to 0.17 F1 score. Specialty-specific analysis indicates elevated burnout risk among providers in Radiology, Psychiatry, and Neurology. Our findings demonstrate that ICU clinical narratives contain actionable signals for proactive well-being monitoring.
LLM-D12: A Dual-Dimensional Scale of Instrumental and Relational Dependencies on Large Language Models
Yankouskaya, Ala, Babiker, Areej B., Rizvi, Syeda W. F., Alshakhsi, Sameha, Liebherr, Magnus, Ali, Raian
There is growing interest in understanding how people interact with large language models (LLMs) and whether such models elicit dependency or even addictive behaviour. Validated tools to assess the extent to which individuals may become dependent on LLMs are scarce and primarily build on classic behavioral addiction symptoms, adapted to the context of LLM use. We view this as a conceptual limitation, as the LLM-human relationship is more nuanced and warrants a fresh and distinct perspective. To address this gap, we developed and validated a new 12-item questionnaire to measure LLM dependency, referred to as LLM-D12. The scale was based on the authors' prior theoretical work, with items developed accordingly and responses collected from 526 participants in the UK. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses, performed on separate halves of the total sample using a split-sample approach, supported a two-factor structure: Instrumental Dependency (six items) and Relationship Dependency (six items). Instrumental Dependency reflects the extent to which individuals rely on LLMs to support or collaborate in decision-making and cognitive tasks. Relationship Dependency captures the tendency to perceive LLMs as socially meaningful, sentient, or companion-like entities. The two-factor structure demonstrated excellent internal consistency and clear discriminant validity. External validation confirmed both the conceptual foundation and the distinction between the two subscales. The psychometric properties and structure of our LLM-D12 scale were interpreted in light of the emerging view that dependency on LLMs does not necessarily indicate dysfunction but may still reflect reliance levels that could become problematic in certain contexts.
Testing for correlation between network structure and high-dimensional node covariates
Fuchs-Kreiss, Alexander, Levin, Keith
In many application domains, networks are observed with node-level features. In such settings, a common problem is to assess whether or not nodal covariates are correlated with the network structure itself. Here, we present four novel methods for addressing this problem. Two of these are based on a linear model relating node-level covariates to latent node-level variables that drive network structure. The other two are based on applying canonical correlation analysis to the node features and network structure, avoiding the linear modeling assumptions. We provide theoretical guarantees for all four methods when the observed network is generated according to a low-rank latent space model endowed with node-level covariates, which we allow to be high-dimensional. Our methods are computationally cheaper and require fewer modeling assumptions than previous approaches to network dependency testing. We demonstrate and compare the performance of our novel methods on both simulated and real-world data.
A Small Dataset May Go a Long Way: Process Duration Prediction in Clinical Settings
Störrle, Harald, Hort, Anastasia
Context: Utilization of operating theaters is a major cost driver in hospitals. Optimizing this variable through optimized surgery schedules may significantly lower cost and simultaneously improve medical outcomes. Previous studies proposed various complex models to predict the duration of procedures, the key ingredient to optimal schedules. They did so perusing large amounts of data. Goals: We aspire to create an effective and efficient model to predict operation durations based on only a small amount of data. Ideally, our model is also simpler in structure, and thus easier to use. Methods: We immerse ourselves in the application domain to leverage practitioners expertise. This way, we make the best use of our limited supply of clinical data, and may conduct our data analysis in a theory-guided way. We do a combined factor analysis and develop regression models to predict the duration of the perioperative process. Findings: We found simple methods of central tendency to perform on a par with much more complex methods proposed in the literature. In fact, they sometimes outperform them. We conclude that combining expert knowledge with data analysis may improve both data quality and model performance, allowing for more accurate forecasts. Conclusion: We yield better results than previous researchers by integrating conventional data science methods with qualitative studies of clinical settings and process structure. Thus, we are able to leverage even small datasets.