Reinforcement Learning
Mean--Variance Portfolio Selection by Continuous-Time Reinforcement Learning: Algorithms, Regret Analysis, and Empirical Study
Huang, Yilie, Jia, Yanwei, Zhou, Xun Yu
We study continuous-time mean--variance portfolio selection in markets where stock prices are diffusion processes driven by observable factors that are also diffusion processes yet the coefficients of these processes are unknown. Based on the recently developed reinforcement learning (RL) theory for diffusion processes, we present a general data-driven RL algorithm that learns the pre-committed investment strategy directly without attempting to learn or estimate the market coefficients. For multi-stock Black--Scholes markets without factors, we further devise a baseline algorithm and prove its performance guarantee by deriving a sublinear regret bound in terms of Sharpe ratio. For performance enhancement and practical implementation, we modify the baseline algorithm into four variants, and carry out an extensive empirical study to compare their performance, in terms of a host of common metrics, with a large number of widely used portfolio allocation strategies on S\&P 500 constituents. The results demonstrate that the continuous-time RL strategies are consistently among the best especially in a volatile bear market, and decisively outperform the model-based continuous-time counterparts by significant margins.
Conformal Symplectic Optimization for Stable Reinforcement Learning
Lyu, Yao, Zhang, Xiangteng, Li, Shengbo Eben, Duan, Jingliang, Tao, Letian, Xu, Qing, He, Lei, Li, Keqiang
Training deep reinforcement learning (RL) agents necessitates overcoming the highly unstable nonconvex stochastic optimization inherent in the trial-and-error mechanism. To tackle this challenge, we propose a physics-inspired optimization algorithm called relativistic adaptive gradient descent (RAD), which enhances long-term training stability. By conceptualizing neural network (NN) training as the evolution of a conformal Hamiltonian system, we present a universal framework for transferring long-term stability from conformal symplectic integrators to iterative NN updating rules, where the choice of kinetic energy governs the dynamical properties of resulting optimization algorithms. By utilizing relativistic kinetic energy, RAD incorporates principles from special relativity and limits parameter updates below a finite speed, effectively mitigating abnormal gradient influences. Additionally, RAD models NN optimization as the evolution of a multi-particle system where each trainable parameter acts as an independent particle with an individual adaptive learning rate. We prove RAD's sublinear convergence under general nonconvex settings, where smaller gradient variance and larger batch sizes contribute to tighter convergence. Notably, RAD degrades to the well-known adaptive moment estimation (ADAM) algorithm when its speed coefficient is chosen as one and symplectic factor as a small positive value. Experimental results show RAD outperforming nine baseline optimizers with five RL algorithms across twelve environments, including standard benchmarks and challenging scenarios. Notably, RAD achieves up to a 155.1% performance improvement over ADAM in Atari games, showcasing its efficacy in stabilizing and accelerating RL training.
Reinforcement Learning for a Discrete-Time Linear-Quadratic Control Problem with an Application
The concept of reinforcement learning (RL) can be traced back to Minsky (1954), who studied the theory of neural-analog reinforcement systems and its application to the brain model problem. Since then, RL, as a subfield of machine learning, has achieved significant theoretical and technical advancements across various fields, including engineering, biostatistics, economics, business, and financial investment. More recently, RL has shown increasing applicability to real-world problems such as biological data analysis, autonomous driving, robotics control, computer vision, and gaming. Yu et al. (2000) provided an overview of successful RL applications, highlighting its use in adaptive treatment regimes for chronic diseases and critical care, automated clinical diagnosis, and other healthcare domains like clinical resource allocation and optimal process control. They also discussed the challenges, open issues, and future directions for RL research in healthcare. Wang and Zhou (2019) noted that the application of RL in quantitative finance has attracted more attention in recent years.
Bounded Exploration with World Model Uncertainty in Soft Actor-Critic Reinforcement Learning Algorithm
Qiao, Ting, Williams, Henry, Valencia, David, MacDonald, Bruce
One of the bottlenecks preventing Deep Reinforcement Learning algorithms (DRL) from real-world applications is how to explore the environment and collect informative transitions efficiently. The present paper describes bounded exploration, a novel exploration method that integrates both 'soft' and intrinsic motivation exploration. Bounded exploration notably improved the Soft Actor-Critic algorithm's performance and its model-based extension's converging speed. It achieved the highest score in 6 out of 8 experiments. Bounded exploration presents an alternative method to introduce intrinsic motivations to exploration when the original reward function has strict meanings.
Skill-Enhanced Reinforcement Learning Acceleration from Demonstrations
Learning from Demonstration (LfD) aims to facilitate rapid Reinforcement Learning (RL) by leveraging expert demonstrations to pre-train the RL agent. However, the limited availability of expert demonstration data often hinders its ability to effectively aid downstream RL learning. To address this problem, we propose a novel two-stage method dubbed as Skill-enhanced Reinforcement Learning Acceleration (SeRLA). SeRLA introduces a skill-level adversarial Positive-Unlabeled (PU) learning model to extract useful skill prior knowledge by enabling learning from both limited expert data and general low-cost demonstration data in the offline prior learning stage. Subsequently, it deploys a skill-based soft actor-critic algorithm to leverage this acquired prior knowledge in the downstream online RL stage for efficient training of a skill policy network. Moreover, we develop a simple skill-level data enhancement technique to further alleviate data sparsity and improve both skill prior learning and downstream skill policy training. Our experimental results on multiple standard RL environments show the proposed SeRLA method achieves state-of-the-art performance on accelerating reinforcement learning on downstream tasks, especially in the early learning phase.
M$^3$PC: Test-time Model Predictive Control for Pretrained Masked Trajectory Model
Wen, Kehan, Hu, Yutong, Mu, Yao, Ke, Lei
Recent work in Offline Reinforcement Learning (RL) has shown that a unified Transformer trained under a masked auto-encoding objective can effectively capture the relationships between different modalities (e.g., states, actions, rewards) within given trajectory datasets. However, this information has not been fully exploited during the inference phase, where the agent needs to generate an optimal policy instead of just reconstructing masked components from unmasked ones. Given that a pretrained trajectory model can act as both a Policy Model and a World Model with appropriate mask patterns, we propose using Model Predictive Control (MPC) at test time to leverage the model's own predictive capability to guide its action selection. Empirical results on D4RL and RoboMimic show that our inference-phase MPC significantly improves the decision-making performance of a pretrained trajectory model without any additional parameter training. Furthermore, our framework can be adapted to Offline to Online (O2O) RL and Goal Reaching RL, resulting in more substantial performance gains when an additional online interaction budget is provided, and better generalization capabilities when different task targets are specified. The Masked Modeling paradigm has a simple, self-supervised training objective: predicting a randomly masked subset of the original sequence. It has become a powerful technique for generation or representation learning for sequential data, e.g., language tokens (Devlin et al., 2018) or image patches (He et al., 2022). Unlike autoregressive models like GPT (Brown et al., 2020), which condition only on the past context in the "left", bidirectional models trained with this objective learn to model the context from both sides, leading to richer representations and deeper understandings of the data's underlying dependencies. Given that a sequential decision-making trajectory inherently involves a sequence of states s and actions a, and other optional augmented properties like return-to-go (RTG) g (Chen et al., 2021) or approximate state-action value v (Yamagata et al., 2023) across T timesteps, the mask modeling paradigm can be adapted easily for sequential decision-making tasks. For example, in the case of Reinforcement Learning, the policy output P(a|s) at each time step can be regarded as predicting a masked action a conditioned on given states s.
Policy-shaped prediction: avoiding distractions in model-based reinforcement learning
Hutson, Miles, Kauvar, Isaac, Haber, Nick
Model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) is a promising route to sample-efficient policy optimization. However, a known vulnerability of reconstruction-based MBRL consists of scenarios in which detailed aspects of the world are highly predictable, but irrelevant to learning a good policy. Such scenarios can lead the model to exhaust its capacity on meaningless content, at the cost of neglecting important environment dynamics. While existing approaches attempt to solve this problem, we highlight its continuing impact on leading MBRL methods -- including DreamerV3 and DreamerPro -- with a novel environment where background distractions are intricate, predictable, and useless for planning future actions. To address this challenge we develop a method for focusing the capacity of the world model through synergy of a pretrained segmentation model, a task-aware reconstruction loss, and adversarial learning. Our method outperforms a variety of other approaches designed to reduce the impact of distractors, and is an advance towards robust model-based reinforcement learning.
Two-way Deconfounder for Off-policy Evaluation in Causal Reinforcement Learning
Yu, Shuguang, Fang, Shuxing, Peng, Ruixin, Qi, Zhengling, Zhou, Fan, Shi, Chengchun
Inspired by the two-way fixed effects regression model widely used in the panel data literature, we propose a two-way unmeasured confounding assumption to model the system dynamics in causal reinforcement learning and develop a two-way deconfounder algorithm that devises a neural tensor network to simultaneously learn both the unmeasured confounders and the system dynamics, based on which a model-based estimator can be constructed for consistent policy value estimation. We illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed estimator through theoretical results and numerical experiments.
Learning Soft Driving Constraints from Vectorized Scene Embeddings while Imitating Expert Trajectories
Mobarakeh, Niloufar Saeidi, Khamidehi, Behzad, Li, Chunlin, Mirkhani, Hamidreza, Arasteh, Fazel, Elmahgiubi, Mohammed, Zhang, Weize, Rezaee, Kasra, Poupart, Pascal
The primary goal of motion planning is to generate safe and efficient trajectories for vehicles. Traditionally, motion planning models are trained using imitation learning to mimic the behavior of human experts. However, these models often lack interpretability and fail to provide clear justifications for their decisions. We propose a method that integrates constraint learning into imitation learning by extracting driving constraints from expert trajectories. Our approach utilizes vectorized scene embeddings that capture critical spatial and temporal features, enabling the model to identify and generalize constraints across various driving scenarios. We formulate the constraint learning problem using a maximum entropy model, which scores the motion planner's trajectories based on their similarity to the expert trajectory. By separating the scoring process into distinct reward and constraint streams, we improve both the interpretability of the planner's behavior and its attention to relevant scene components. Unlike existing constraint learning methods that rely on simulators and are typically embedded in reinforcement learning (RL) or inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) frameworks, our method operates without simulators, making it applicable to a wider range of datasets and real-world scenarios. Experimental results on the InD and TrafficJams datasets demonstrate that incorporating driving constraints enhances model interpretability and improves closed-loop performance.
Strategizing Equitable Transit Evacuations: A Data-Driven Reinforcement Learning Approach
Tang, Fang, Wang, Han, Monache, Maria Laura Delle
As natural disasters become increasingly frequent, the need for efficient and equitable evacuation planning has become more critical. This paper proposes a data-driven, reinforcement learning-based framework to optimize bus-based evacuations with an emphasis on improving both efficiency and equity. We model the evacuation problem as a Markov Decision Process solved by reinforcement learning, using real-time transit data from General Transit Feed Specification and transportation networks extracted from OpenStreetMap. The reinforcement learning agent dynamically reroutes buses from their scheduled location to minimize total passengers' evacuation time while prioritizing equity-priority communities. Simulations on the San Francisco Bay Area transportation network indicate that the proposed framework achieves significant improvements in both evacuation efficiency and equitable service distribution compared to traditional rule-based and random strategies. These results highlight the potential of reinforcement learning to enhance system performance and urban resilience during emergency evacuations, offering a scalable solution for real-world applications in intelligent transportation systems.