The Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architecture has enabled the creation of massive yet efficient Large Language Models (LLMs). However, the standard deterministic routing mechanism presents a significant limitation: its inherent brittleness is a key contributor to model miscalibration and overconfidence, resulting in systems that often do not know what they don't know. This thesis confronts this challenge by proposing a structured \textbf{Bayesian MoE routing framework}. Instead of forcing a single, deterministic expert selection, our approach models a probability distribution over the routing decision itself. We systematically investigate three families of methods that introduce this principled uncertainty at different stages of the routing pipeline: in the \textbf{weight-space}, the \textbf{logit-space}, and the final \textbf{selection-space}. Through a series of controlled experiments on a 3-billion parameter MoE model, we demonstrate that this framework significantly improves routing stability, in-distribution calibration, and out-of-distribution (OoD) detection. The results show that by targeting this core architectural component, we can create a more reliable internal uncertainty signal. This work provides a practical and computationally tractable pathway towards building more robust and self-aware LLMs, taking a crucial step towards making them know what they don't know.

Gradient boosting is widely popular due to its flexibility and predictive accuracy. However, statistical inference and uncertainty quantification for gradient boosting remain challenging and under-explored. We propose a unified framework for statistical inference in gradient boosting regression. Our framework integrates dropout or parallel training with a recently proposed regularization procedure that allows for a central limit theorem (CLT) for boosting. With these enhancements, we surprisingly find that increasing the dropout rate and the number of trees grown in parallel at each iteration substantially enhances signal recovery and overall performance. Our resulting algorithms enjoy similar CLTs, which we use to construct built-in confidence intervals, prediction intervals, and rigorous hypothesis tests for assessing variable importance. Numerical experiments demonstrate that our algorithms perform well, interpolate between regularized boosting and random forests, and confirm the validity of their built-in statistical inference procedures.

Recent advances in deep learning highlight the need for personalized models that can learn from small or moderate samples, handle high dimensional features, and remain interpretable. To address this challenge, we propose the Sparse Deep Additive Model with Interactions (SDAMI), a framework that combines sparsity driven feature selection with deep subnetworks for flexible function approximation. Unlike conventional deep learning models, which often function as black boxes, SDAMI explicitly disentangles main effects and interaction effects to enhance interpretability. At the same time, its deep additive structure achieves higher predictive accuracy than classical additive models. Central to SDAMI is the concept of an Effect Footprint, which assumes that higher order interactions project marginally onto main effects. Guided by this principle, SDAMI adopts a two stage strategy: first, identify strong main effects that implicitly carry information about important interactions. second, exploit this information through structured regularization such as group lasso to distinguish genuine main effects from interaction effects. For each selected main effect, SDAMI constructs a dedicated subnetwork, enabling nonlinear function approximation while preserving interpretability and providing a structured foundation for modeling interactions. Extensive simulations with comparisons confirm SDAMI$'$s ability to recover effect structures across diverse scenarios, while applications in reliability analysis, neuroscience, and medical diagnostics further demonstrate its versatility in addressing real-world high-dimensional modeling challenges.

Abstract--In machine learning, uncertainty quantification helps assess the reliability of model predictions, which is important in high-stakes scenarios. Traditional approaches often emphasize predictive accuracy, but there is a growing focus on incorporating uncertainty measures. While current methods often rely on quantile regression or Monte Carlo techniques, we propose a new approach using naturally occurring test sets and similarity measures (proximities) typically viewed as byproducts of random forests. Specifically, we form localized distributions of OOB errors around nearby points, defined using the proximities, to create prediction intervals for regression and trust scores for classification. By varying the number of nearby points, our intervals can be adjusted to achieve the desired coverage while retaining the flexibility that reflects the certainty of individual predictions. For classification, excluding points identified as unclassifiable by our method generally enhances the accuracy of the model and provides higher accuracy-rejection AUC scores than competing methods. Although traditional machine learning models usually provide point estimates, there is growing recognition of the need to incorporate uncertainty to support more informed decisions [1]. By quantifying uncertainty, users can assess the reliability of model outputs and better interpret results, especially for out-of-distribution samples through calibrated confidence estimates.

Online controlled experiments (A/B tests) are fundamental to data - driven decision - making in the digital economy. However, their real - world application is frequently compromised by two critical shortcomings: the use of statistically flawed heuristics like " p - value peeking", which inflates false positive rates, and an over - reliance on proxy metrics like conversion rates, which can lead to decisions that inadvertently harm core business profitability. This paper addresses these challenges by introducing a comp rehensive and scalable Bayesian decision framework designed for profit optimization in multi - variant (A/B/n) experiments. We propose a hierarchical Bayesian model that simultaneously estimates the probability of conversion (using a Beta - Bernoulli model) and the monetary value of that conversion (using a robust Bayesian model for the mean transaction value). Building on this, we employ a decision - theoretic stopping rule based on Expected Loss, enabling experiments to be concluded not only when a superior variant is identified but also when it becomes clear that no variant offers a practically significant improvement (stopping f or futility). The framework successfully navigates "revenue traps" where a variant with a higher conversion rate would have resulted in a net financial loss, correctly terminates futile experiments early to conserve resources, and maintains strict statisti cal integrity throughout the monitoring process. Ultimately, this work provides a practical and principled methodology for organizations to move beyond simple A/B testing towards a mature, profit - driven experimentation culture, ensuring that statistical conclusions translate directly to strategic busines s value.

Multilingual Large Language Models (LLMs) offer powerful capabilities for cross-lingual fact-checking. However, these models often exhibit language bias, performing disproportionately better on high-resource languages such as English than on low-resource counterparts. We also present and inspect a novel concept - retrieval bias, when information retrieval systems tend to favor certain information over others, leaving the retrieval process skewed. In this paper, we study language and retrieval bias in the context of Previously Fact-Checked Claim Detection (PFCD). We evaluate six open-source multilingual LLMs across 20 languages using a fully multilingual prompting strategy, leveraging the AMC-16K dataset. By translating task prompts into each language, we uncover disparities in monolingual and cross-lingual performance and identify key trends based on model family, size, and prompting strategy. Our findings highlight persistent bias in LLM behavior and offer recommendations for improving equity in multilingual fact-checking. To investigate retrieval bias, we employed multilingual embedding models and look into the frequency of retrieved claims. Our analysis reveals that certain claims are retrieved disproportionately across different posts, leading to inflated retrieval performance for popular claims while under-representing less common ones.

Data-driven models are increasingly adopted in critical scientific fields like weather forecasting and fluid dynamics. These methods can fail on out-of-distribution (OOD) data, but detecting such failures in regression tasks is an open challenge. We propose a new OOD detection method based on estimating joint likelihoods using a score-based diffusion model. This approach considers not just the input but also the regression model's prediction, providing a task-aware reliability score. Across numerous scientific datasets, including PDE datasets, satellite imagery and brain tumor segmentation, we show that this likelihood strongly correlates with prediction error. Our work provides a foundational step towards building a verifiable 'certificate of trust', thereby offering a practical tool for assessing the trustworthiness of AI-based scientific predictions. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/bogdanraonic3/OOD_Detection_ScientificML

Membership inference attacks (MIAs) against diffusion models have emerged as a pressing privacy concern, as these models may inadvertently reveal whether a given sample was part of their training set. We present a theoretical and empirical study of score-based MIAs, focusing on the predicted noise vectors that diffusion models learn to approximate. We show that the expected denoiser output points toward a kernel-weighted local mean of nearby training samples, such that its norm encodes proximity to the training set and thereby reveals membership. Building on this observation, we propose SimA, a single-query attack that provides a principled, efficient alternative to existing multi-query methods. SimA achieves consistently strong performance across variants of DDPM, Latent Diffusion Model (LDM). Notably, we find that Latent Diffusion Models are surprisingly less vulnerable than pixel-space models, due to the strong information bottleneck imposed by their latent auto-encoder. We further investigate this by differing the regularization hyperparameters (β in β-V AE) in latent channel and suggest a strategy to make LDM training more robust to MIA. The green region is unlikely to be sampled in high dimensions (c.f.

Recommender systems (RS) are widely used in e-commerce for personalized suggestions, yet their openness makes them susceptible to shilling attacks, where adversaries inject fake behaviors to manipulate recommendations. Most existing defenses emphasize user-side behaviors while overlooking item-side features such as titles and descriptions that can expose malicious intent. To address this gap, we propose a two-stage detection framework that integrates item-side semantics via large language models (LLMs). The first stage pre-screens suspicious users using low-cost behavioral criteria, and the second stage employs LLM-based auditing to evaluate semantic consistency. Furthermore, we enhance the auditing model through reinforcement fine-tuning on a lightweight LLM with carefully designed reward functions, yielding a specialized detector called SemanticShield. Experiments on six representative attack strategies demonstrate the effectiveness of SemanticShield against shilling attacks, and further evaluation on previously unseen attack methods shows its strong generalization capability. Code is available at https://github.com/FrankenstLee/SemanticShield.

Large language models (LLMs) can generate fluent text, but their ability to replicate the distinctive style of a specific human author remains unclear. We present a fast, training-free framework for authorship verification and style imitation analysis. The method integrates TF-IDF character n-grams with transformer embeddings and classifies text pairs through empirical distance distributions, eliminating the need for supervised training or threshold tuning. It achieves 97.5\% accuracy on academic essays and 94.5\% in cross-domain evaluation, while reducing training time by 91.8\% and memory usage by 59\% relative to parameter-based baselines. Using this framework, we evaluate five LLMs from three separate families (Llama, Qwen, Mixtral) across four prompting strategies - zero-shot, one-shot, few-shot, and text completion. Results show that the prompting strategy has a more substantial influence on style fidelity than model size: few-shot prompting yields up to 23.5x higher style-matching accuracy than zero-shot, and completion prompting reaches 99.9\% agreement with the original author's style. Crucially, high-fidelity imitation does not imply human-like unpredictability - human essays average a perplexity of 29.5, whereas matched LLM outputs average only 15.2. These findings demonstrate that stylistic fidelity and statistical detectability are separable, establishing a reproducible basis for future work in authorship modeling, detection, and identity-conditioned generation.