The Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority (MBTA) is the main public transit provider in Boston, operating multiple means of transport, including trains, subways, and buses. However, the system often faces delays and fluctuations in ridership volume, which negatively affect efficiency and passenger satisfaction. To further understand this phenomenon, this paper compares the performance of existing and unique methods to determine the best approach in predicting gated station entries in the subway system (a proxy for subway usage) and the number of delays in the overall MBTA system. To do so, this research considers factors that tend to affect public transportation, such as day of week, season, pressure, wind speed, average temperature, and precipitation. This paper evaluates the performance of 10 statistical and machine learning models on predicting next-day subway usage. On predicting delay count, the number of models is extended to 11 per day by introducing a self-exciting point process model, representing a unique application of a point-process framework for MBTA delay modeling. This research involves experimenting with the selective inclusion of features to determine feature importance, testing model accuracy via Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). Remarkably, it is found that providing either day of week or season data has a more substantial benefit to predictive accuracy compared to weather data; in fact, providing weather data generally worsens performance, suggesting a tendency of models to overfit.

Large language models (LLMs) can act as both problem solvers and solution verifiers, with verifiers improving solver performance by selecting high-quality answers from a pool of candidates. However, prior studies of solver-verifier interactions have been limited, focusing mainly on self-verification and rarely examining how verifiers judge outputs from models in their own or in another model family. Modern LLMs also undergo extensive post-training, but its effect on verification remains unclear. We present a systematic study across 37 models spanning multiple families, sizes, and base vs. post-trained variants, evaluated on 9 benchmarks covering logical reasoning, structured puzzles, symbolic computation, mathematics, commonsense, factual recall, and domain knowledge. We compare self-verification with verification within the same family and across different families. To support this, we introduce and empirically validate verifier gain, a metric that predicts the performance improvements from test-time verifier-based rejection sampling. We analyze how metrics like verifier gain and false positive rate scale with model size and post-training, and characterize differences in dataset verifiability. Our findings show that cross-family verification is especially effective; post-training reduces self-improvement but strengthens cross-family improvement; and mathematical and logical tasks exhibit the highest inherent verifiability.

Trustworthy machine learning in healthcare requires strong predictive performance, fairness, and explanations. While it is known that improving fairness can affect predictive performance, little is known about how fairness improvements influence explainability, an essential ingredient for clinical trust. Clinicians may hesitate to rely on a model whose explanations shift after fairness constraints are applied. In this study, we examine how enhancing fairness through bias mitigation techniques reshapes Shapley-based feature rankings. We quantify changes in feature importance rankings after applying fairness constraints across three datasets: pediatric urinary tract infection risk, direct anticoagulant bleeding risk, and recidivism risk. We also evaluate multiple model classes on the stability of Shapley-based rankings. We find that increasing model fairness across racial subgroups can significantly alter feature importance rankings, sometimes in different ways across groups. These results highlight the need to jointly consider accuracy, fairness, and explainability in model assessment rather than in isolation.

Artificial intelligence (AI) systems increasingly influence safety-critical aspects of society, from medical diagnosis to autonomous mobility, making uncertainty awareness a central requirement for trustworthy AI. We present a photonic Bayesian machine that leverages the inherent randomness of chaotic light sources to enable uncertainty reasoning within the framework of Bayesian Neural Networks. The analog processor features a 1.28 Tbit/s digital interface compatible with PyTorch, enabling probabilistic convolutions processing within 37.5 ps per convolution. We use the system for simultaneous classification and out-of-domain detection of blood cell microscope images and demonstrate reasoning between aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties. The photonic Bayesian machine removes the bottleneck of pseudo random number generation in digital systems, minimizes the cost of sampling for probabilistic models, and thus enables high-speed trustworthy AI systems.

The electrocardiogram (ECG) is a key diagnostic tool in cardiovascular health. Single-lead ECG recording is integrated into both clinical-grade and consumer wearables. While self-supervised pretraining of foundation models on unlabeled ECGs improves diagnostic performance, existing approaches do not incorporate domain knowledge from clinical metadata. We introduce a novel contrastive learning approach that utilizes an established clinical risk score to adaptively weight negative pairs: clinically-guided contrastive learning. It aligns the similarities of ECG embeddings with clinically meaningful differences between subjects, with an explicit mechanism to handle missing metadata. On 12-lead ECGs from 161K patients in the MIMIC-IV dataset, we pretrain single-lead ECG foundation models at three scales, collectively called CLEF, using only routinely collected metadata without requiring per-sample ECG annotations. We evaluate CLEF on 18 clinical classification and regression tasks across 7 held-out datasets, and benchmark against 5 foundation model baselines and 3 self-supervised algorithms. When pretrained on 12-lead ECG data and tested on lead-I data, CLEF outperforms self-supervised foundation model baselines: the medium-sized CLEF achieves average AUROC improvements of at least 2.6% in classification and average reductions in MAEs of at least 3.2% in regression. Comparing with existing self-supervised learning algorithms, CLEF improves the average AUROC by at least 1.8%. Moreover, when pretrained only on lead-I data for classification tasks, CLEF performs comparably to the state-of-the-art ECGFounder, which was trained in a supervised manner. Overall, CLEF enables more accurate and scalable single-lead ECG analysis, advancing remote health monitoring. Code and pretrained CLEF models are available at: github.com/Nokia-Bell-Labs/ecg-foundation-model.

Timely assessment of current conditions is essential especially for small, open economies such as Singapore, where external shocks transmit rapidly to domestic activity. We develop a real-time nowcasting framework for quarterly GDP growth using a high-dimensional panel of approximately 70 indicators, encompassing economic and financial indicators over 1990Q1-2023Q2. The analysis covers penalized regressions, dimensionality-reduction methods, ensemble learning algorithms, and neural architectures, benchmarked against a Random Walk, an AR(3), and a Dynamic Factor Model. The pipeline preserves temporal ordering through an expanding-window walk-forward design with Bayesian hyperparameter optimization, and uses moving block-bootstrap procedures both to construct prediction intervals and to obtain confidence bands for feature-importance measures. It adopts model-specific and XAI-based explainability tools. A Model Confidence Set procedure identifies statistically superior learners, which are then combined through simple, weighted, and exponentially weighted schemes; the resulting time-varying weights provide an interpretable representation of model contributions. Predictive ability is assessed via Giacomini-White tests. Empirical results show that penalized regressions, dimensionality-reduction models, and GRU networks consistently outperform all benchmarks, with RMSFE reductions of roughly 40-60%; aggregation delivers further gains. Feature-attribution methods highlight industrial production, external trade, and labor-market indicators as dominant drivers of Singapore's short-run growth dynamics.

This paper presents LLMBugScanner, a large language model (LLM) based framework for smart contract vulnerability detection using fine-tuning and ensemble learning. Smart contract auditing presents several challenges for LLMs: different pretrained models exhibit varying reasoning abilities, and no single model performs consistently well across all vulnerability types or contract structures. These limitations persist even after fine-tuning individual LLMs. To address these challenges, LLMBugScanner combines domain knowledge adaptation with ensemble reasoning to improve robustness and generalization. Through domain knowledge adaptation, we fine-tune LLMs on complementary datasets to capture both general code semantics and instruction-guided vulnerability reasoning, using parameter-efficient tuning to reduce computational cost. Through ensemble reasoning, we leverage the complementary strengths of multiple LLMs and apply a consensus-based conflict resolution strategy to produce more reliable vulnerability assessments. We conduct extensive experiments across multiple popular LLMs and compare LLMBugScanner with both pretrained and fine-tuned individual models. Results show that LLMBugScanner achieves consistent accuracy improvements and stronger generalization, demonstrating that it provides a principled, cost-effective, and extensible framework for smart contract auditing.

Floods are among the most damaging weather-related hazards, and in 2024, the warmest year on record, extreme flood events affected communities across five continents. Earth observation (EO) satellites provide critical, frequent coverage for mapping inundation, yet operational accuracy depends heavily on labeled datasets and model generalization. Recent Geospatial Foundation Models (GFMs), such as ESA-IBM's TerraMind, offer improved generalizability through large-scale self-supervised pretraining, but their performance on diverse global flood events remains poorly understood. We fine-tune TerraMind for flood extent mapping using FloodsNet, a harmonized multimodal dataset containing co-located Sentinel-1 (Synthetic Aperture Radar, SAR data) and Sentinel-2 (optical) imagery for 85 flood events worldwide. We tested four configurations (base vs. large models; frozen vs. unfrozen backbones) and compared against the TerraMind Sen1Floods11 example and a U-Net trained on both FloodsNet and Sen1Floods11. The base-unfrozen configuration provided the best balance of accuracy, precision, and recall at substantially lower computational cost than the large model. The large unfrozen model achieved the highest recall. Models trained on FloodsNet outperformed the Sen1Floods11-trained example in recall with similar overall accuracy. U-Net achieved higher recall than all GFM configurations, though with slightly lower accuracy and precision. Our results demonstrate that integrating multimodal optical and SAR data and fine-tuning a GFM can enhance near-real-time flood mapping. This study provides one of the first global-scale evaluations of a GFM for flood segmentation, highlighting both its potential and current limitations for climate adaptation and disaster resilience.

This study introduces a significant architectural advancement in feature fusion for lyrical content classification by integrating auxiliary structural features directly into the self-attention mechanism of a pre-trained Transformer. I propose the SFL Transformer, a novel deep learning model that utilizes a Contextual Gating mechanism (an Intermediate SFL) to modulate the sequence of hidden states within the BERT encoder stack, rather than fusing features at the final output layer. This approach modulates the deep, contextualized semantic features (Hseq) using low-dimensional structural cues (Fstruct). The model is applied to a challenging binary classification task derived from UMAP-reduced lyrical embeddings. The SFL Transformer achieved an Accuracy of 0.9910 and a Macro F1 score of 0.9910, significantly improving the state-of-the-art established by the previously published SFL model (Accuracy 0.9894). Crucially, this Contextual Gating strategy maintained exceptional reliability, with a low Expected Calibration Error (ECE = 0.0081) and Log Loss (0.0489). This work validates the hypothesis that injecting auxiliary context mid-stack is the most effective means of synergistically combining structural and semantic information, creating a model with both superior discriminative power and high-fidelity probability estimates.

Reliable evaluation of protein structure predictions remains challenging, as metrics like pLDDT capture energetic stability but often miss subtle errors such as atomic clashes or conformational traps reflecting topological frustration within the protein folding energy landscape. We present CODE (Chain of Diffusion Embeddings), a self evaluating metric empirically found to quantify topological frustration directly from the latent diffusion embeddings of the AlphaFold3 series of structure predictors in a fully unsupervised manner. Integrating this with pLDDT, we propose CONFIDE, a unified evaluation framework that combines energetic and topological perspectives to improve the reliability of AlphaFold3 and related models. CODE strongly correlates with protein folding rates driven by topological frustration, achieving a correlation of 0.82 compared to pLDDT's 0.33 (a relative improvement of 148\%). CONFIDE significantly enhances the reliability of quality evaluation in molecular glue structure prediction benchmarks, achieving a Spearman correlation of 0.73 with RMSD, compared to pLDDT's correlation of 0.42, a relative improvement of 73.8\%. Beyond quality assessment, our approach applies to diverse drug design tasks, including all-atom binder design, enzymatic active site mapping, mutation induced binding affinity prediction, nucleic acid aptamer screening, and flexible protein modeling. By combining data driven embeddings with theoretical insight, CODE and CONFIDE outperform existing metrics across a wide range of biomolecular systems, offering robust and versatile tools to refine structure predictions, advance structural biology, and accelerate drug discovery.