Attribution modelling lies at the heart of marketing effectiveness, yet most existing approaches depend on user-level path data, which are increasingly inaccessible due to privacy regulations and platform restrictions. This paper introduces a Causal-Driven Attribution (CDA) framework that infers channel influence using only aggregated impression-level data, avoiding any reliance on user identifiers or click-path tracking. CDA integrates temporal causal discovery (using PCMCI) with causal effect estimation via a Structural Causal Model to recover directional channel relationships and quantify their contributions to conversions. Using large-scale synthetic data designed to replicate real marketing dynamics, we show that CDA achieves an average relative RMSE of 9.50% when given the true causal graph, and 24.23% when using the predicted graph, demonstrating strong accuracy under correct structure and meaningful signal recovery even under structural uncertainty. CDA captures cross-channel interdependencies while providing interpretable, privacy-preserving attribution insights, offering a scalable and future-proof alternative to traditional path-based models.

Several performance measures are used to evaluate binary and multiclass classification tasks. But individual observations may often have distinct weights, and none of these measures are sensitive to such varying weights. We propose a new weighted Pearson-Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC) for binary classification as well as weighted versions of related multiclass measures. The weighted MCC varies between $-1$ and $1$. But crucially, the weighted MCC values are higher for classifiers that perform better on highly weighted observations, and hence is able to distinguish them from classifiers that have a similar overall performance and ones that perform better on the lowly weighted observations. Furthermore, we prove that the weighted measures are robust with respect to the choice of weights in a precise manner: if the weights are changed by at most $ε$, the value of the weighted measure changes at most by a factor of $ε$ in the binary case and by a factor of $ε^2$ in the multiclass case. Our computations demonstrate that the weighted measures clearly identify classifiers that perform better on higher weighted observations, while the unweighted measures remain completely indifferent to the choices of weights.

We present a comprehensive study on fully automated pollen recognition across both conventional optical and digital in-line holographic microscopy (DIHM) images of sample slides. Visually recognizing pollen in unreconstructed holographic images remains challenging due to speckle noise, twin-image artifacts and substantial divergence from bright-field appearances. We establish the performance baseline by training YOLOv8s for object detection and MobileNetV3L for classification on a dual-modality dataset of automatically annotated optical and affinely aligned DIHM images. On optical data, detection mAP50 reaches 91.3% and classification accuracy reaches 97%, whereas on DIHM data, we achieve only 8.15% for detection mAP50 and 50% for classification accuracy. Expanding the bounding boxes of pollens in DIHM images over those acquired in aligned optical images achieves 13.3% for detection mAP50 and 54% for classification accuracy. To improve object detection in DIHM images, we employ a Wasserstein GAN with spectral normalization (WGAN-SN) to create synthetic DIHM images, yielding an FID score of 58.246. Mixing real-world and synthetic data at the 1.0 : 1.5 ratio for DIHM images improves object detection up to 15.4%. These results demonstrate that GAN-based augmentation can reduce the performance divide, bringing fully automated DIHM workflows for veterinary imaging a small but important step closer to practice.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are notorious for making more mistakes for the classes that have substantially fewer samples than the others during training. Such class imbalance is ubiquitous in clinical applications and very crucial to handle because the classes with fewer samples most often correspond to critical cases (e.g., cancer) where misclassifications can have severe consequences.Not to miss such cases, binary classifiers need to be operated at high True Positive Rates (TPRs) by setting a higher threshold, but this comes at the cost of very high False Positive Rates (FPRs) for problems with class imbalance. Existing methods for learning under class imbalance most often do not take this into account. We argue that prediction accuracy should be improved by emphasizing the reduction of FPRs at high TPRs for problems where misclassification of the positive, i.e. critical, class samples are associated with higher cost.To this end, we pose the training of a DNN for binary classification as a constrained optimization problem and introduce a novel constraint that can be used with existing loss functions to enforce maximal area under the ROC curve (AUC) through prioritizing FPR reduction at high TPR. We solve the resulting constrained optimization problem using an Augmented Lagrangian method (ALM).Going beyond binary, we also propose two possible extensions of the proposed constraint for multi-class classification problems.We present experimental results for image-based binary and multi-class classification applications using an in-house medical imaging dataset, CIFAR10, and CIFAR100. Our results demonstrate that the proposed method improves the baselines in majority of the cases by attaining higher accuracy on critical classes while reducing the misclassification rate for the non-critical class samples.

Models like LASSO and ridge regression are extensively used in practice due to their interpretability, ease of use, and strong theoretical guarantees. Cross-validation (CV) is widely used for hyperparameter tuning in these models, but do practical methods minimize the true out-of-sample loss? A recent line of research promises to show that the optimum of the CV loss matches the optimum of the out-of-sample loss (possibly after simple corrections). It remains to show how tractable it is to minimize the CV loss.In the present paper, we show that, in the case of ridge regression, the CV loss may fail to be quasiconvex and thus may have multiple local optima. We can guarantee that the CV loss is quasiconvex in at least one case: when the spectrum of the covariate matrix is nearly flat and the noise in the observed responses is not too high. More generally, we show that quasiconvexity status is independent of many properties of the observed data (response norm, covariate-matrix right singular vectors and singular-value scaling) and has a complex dependence on the few that remain. We empirically confirm our theory using simulated experiments.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are typically trained to predict in the forward direction of time. However, recent works have shown that prompting these models to look back and critique their own generations can produce useful feedback. Motivated by this, we explore the question of whether LLMs can be empowered to think (predict and score) backwards to provide unsupervised feedback that complements forward LLMs. Towards this, we introduce Time Reversed Language Models (TRLMs), which can score and generate queries when conditioned on responses, effectively functioning in the reverse direction of time.

Recent work proposed the computation of so-called PI-explanations of Naive Bayes Classifiers (NBCs). PI-explanations are subset-minimal sets of feature-value pairs that are sufficient for the prediction, and have been computed with state-of-the-art exact algorithms that are worst-case exponential in time and space. In contrast, we show that the computation of one PI-explanation for an NBC can be achieved in log-linear time, and that the same result also applies to the more general class of linear classifiers. Furthermore, we show that the enumeration of PI-explanations can be obtained with polynomial delay. Experimental results demonstrate the performance gains of the new algorithms when compared with earlier work. The experimental results also investigate ways to measure the quality of heuristic explanations.

We present a novel method for tuning the regularization hyper-parameter, $\lambda$, of a ridge regression that is faster to compute than leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) while yielding estimates of the regression parameters of equal, or particularly in the setting of sparse covariates, superior quality to those obtained by minimising the LOOCV risk. The LOOCV risk can suffer from multiple and bad local minima for finite $n$ and thus requires the specification of a set of candidate $\lambda$, which can fail to provide good solutions. In contrast, we show that the proposed method is guaranteed to find a unique optimal solution for large enough $n$, under relatively mild conditions, without requiring the specification of any difficult to determine hyper-parameters. This is based on a Bayesian formulation of ridge regression that we prove to have a unimodal posterior for large enough $n$, allowing for both the optimal $\lambda$ and the regression coefficients to be jointly learned within an iterative expectation maximization (EM) procedure. Importantly, we show that by utilizing an appropriate preprocessing step, a single iteration of the main EM loop can be implemented in $O(\min(n, p))$ operations, for input data with $n$ rows and $p$ columns.

This paper conducts a comprehensive study of the learning curves of kernel ridge regression (KRR) under minimal assumptions.Our contributions are three-fold: 1) we analyze the role of key properties of the kernel, such as its spectral eigen-decay, the characteristics of the eigenfunctions, and the smoothness of the kernel; 2) we demonstrate the validity of the Gaussian Equivalent Property (GEP), which states that the generalization performance of KRR remains the same when the whitened features are replaced by standard Gaussian vectors, thereby shedding light on the success of previous analyzes under the Gaussian Design Assumption; 3) we derive novel bounds that improve over existing bounds across a broad range of setting such as (in)dependent feature vectors and various combinations of eigen-decay rates in the over/underparameterized regimes.

In human-AI collaboration systems for critical applications, in order to ensure minimal error, users should set an operating point based on model confidence to determine when the decision should be delegated to human experts. Samples for which model confidence is lower than the operating point would be manually analysed by experts to avoid mistakes.Such systems can become truly useful only if they consider two aspects: models should be confident only for samples for which they are accurate, and the number of samples delegated to experts should be minimized.The latter aspect is especially crucial for applications where available expert time is limited and expensive, such as healthcare. The trade-off between the model accuracy and the number of samples delegated to experts can be represented by a curve that is similar to an ROC curve, which we refer to as confidence operating characteristic (COC) curve. In this paper, we argue that deep neural networks should be trained by taking into account both accuracy and expert load and, to that end, propose a new complementary loss function for classification that maximizes the area under this COC curve.This promotes simultaneously the increase in network accuracy and the reduction in number of samples delegated to humans.We perform experiments on multiple computer vision and medical image datasets for classification.Our results demonstrate that the proposed loss improves classification accuracy and delegates less number of decisions to experts, achieves better out-of-distribution samples detection and on par calibration performance compared to existing loss functions.