Accuracy
Constraint Inference in Control Tasks from Expert Demonstrations via Inverse Optimization
Papadimitriou, Dimitris, Li, Jingqi
Inferring unknown constraints is a challenging and crucial problem in many robotics applications. When only expert demonstrations are available, it becomes essential to infer the unknown domain constraints to deploy additional agents effectively. In this work, we propose an approach to infer affine constraints in control tasks after observing expert demonstrations. We formulate the constraint inference problem as an inverse optimization problem, and we propose an alternating optimization scheme that infers the unknown constraints by minimizing a KKT residual objective. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in a number of simulations, and show that our method can infer less conservative constraints than a recent baseline method, while maintaining comparable safety guarantees.
Stock Movement and Volatility Prediction from Tweets, Macroeconomic Factors and Historical Prices
Wang, Shengkun, Bai, YangXiao, Ji, Taoran, Fu, Kaiqun, Wang, Linhan, Lu, Chang-Tien
Predicting stock market is vital for investors and policymakers, acting as a barometer of the economic health. We leverage social media data, a potent source of public sentiment, in tandem with macroeconomic indicators as government-compiled statistics, to refine stock market predictions. However, prior research using tweet data for stock market prediction faces three challenges. First, the quality of tweets varies widely. While many are filled with noise and irrelevant details, only a few genuinely mirror the actual market scenario. Second, solely focusing on the historical data of a particular stock without considering its sector can lead to oversight. Stocks within the same industry often exhibit correlated price behaviors. Lastly, simply forecasting the direction of price movement without assessing its magnitude is of limited value, as the extent of the rise or fall truly determines profitability. In this paper, diverging from the conventional methods, we pioneer an ECON. The framework has following advantages: First, ECON has an adept tweets filter that efficiently extracts and decodes the vast array of tweet data. Second, ECON discerns multi-level relationships among stocks, sectors, and macroeconomic factors through a self-aware mechanism in semantic space. Third, ECON offers enhanced accuracy in predicting substantial stock price fluctuations by capitalizing on stock price movement. We showcase the state-of-the-art performance of our proposed model using a dataset, specifically curated by us, for predicting stock market movements and volatility.
Near-real-time Earthquake-induced Fatality Estimation using Crowdsourced Data and Large-Language Models
Wang, Chenguang, Engler, Davis, Li, Xuechun, Hou, James, Wald, David J., Jaiswal, Kishor, Xu, Susu
When a damaging earthquake occurs, immediate information about casualties is critical for time-sensitive decision-making by emergency response and aid agencies in the first hours and days. Systems such as Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) were developed to provide a forecast within about 30 minutes of any significant earthquake globally. Traditional systems for estimating human loss in disasters often depend on manually collected early casualty reports from global media, a process that's labor-intensive and slow with notable time delays. Recently, some systems have employed keyword matching and topic modeling to extract relevant information from social media. However, these methods struggle with the complex semantics in multilingual texts and the challenge of interpreting ever-changing, often conflicting reports of death and injury numbers from various unverified sources on social media platforms. In this work, we introduce an end-to-end framework to significantly improve the timeliness and accuracy of global earthquake-induced human loss forecasting using multi-lingual, crowdsourced social media. Our framework integrates (1) a hierarchical casualty extraction model built upon large language models, prompt design, and few-shot learning to retrieve quantitative human loss claims from social media, (2) a physical constraint-aware, dynamic-truth discovery model that discovers the truthful human loss from massive noisy and potentially conflicting human loss claims, and (3) a Bayesian updating loss projection model that dynamically updates the final loss estimation using discovered truths. We test the framework in real-time on a series of global earthquake events in 2021 and 2022 and show that our framework streamlines casualty data retrieval, achieving speed and accuracy comparable to manual methods by USGS.
Reconsideration on evaluation of machine learning models in continuous monitoring using wearables
Ding, Cheng, Guo, Zhicheng, Rudin, Cynthia, Xiao, Ran, Nahab, Fadi B, Hu, Xiao
Especially with the utilization of photoplethysmography (PPG) signal, these devices have demonstrated significant potential in providing real-time insights into an individual's health status. PPG, due to its non-invasive nature and ease of integration into wearable technology, has become a cornerstone in modern health monitoring systems [5]. Analyzing wearable device signals often involves ML models of different complexities [6, 7]. In the model development phase, typically, continuous signals are cut into discrete segments, and the model's performance is evaluated at the segment level using conventional metrics such as accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and F1 score [8]. However, relying solely on these conventional metrics at the segment level does not provide a holistic assessment and hurts both consumers by making it impossible to select optimal solution for their needs and innovators by failing to guide their effort towards true progresses. The complex nature of continuous health monitoring using wearable devices introduces unique challenges beyond conventional evaluation approaches' capabilities, as illustrated in Figure 1. Recognizing these challenges is imperative for imbuing continuous health monitoring applications with accurate and reliable ML models to ensure a successful translation of these models into everyday use by millions of people and fulfill the potential of this technology at scale. In the subsequent sections, we outline the challenges in evaluating ML models for continuous health monitoring using wearables, thoroughly review existing evaluation methods and metrics, and propose a standardized evaluation guideline.
Applying Bayesian Ridge Regression AI Modeling in Virus Severity Prediction
Artificial intelligence (AI) is a powerful tool for reshaping healthcare systems. In healthcare, AI is invaluable for its capacity to manage vast amounts of data, which can lead to more accurate and speedy diagnoses, ultimately easing the workload on healthcare professionals. As a result, AI has proven itself to be a power tool across various industries, simplifying complex tasks and pattern recognition that would otherwise be overwhelming for humans or traditional computer algorithms. In this paper, we review the strengths and weaknesses of Bayesian Ridge Regression, an AI model that can be used to bring cutting edge virus analysis to healthcare professionals around the world. The model's accuracy assessment revealed promising results, with room for improvement primarily related to data organization. In addition, the severity index serves as a valuable tool to gain a broad overview of patient care needs, aligning with healthcare professionals' preference for broader categorizations.
AI ensemble for signal detection of higher order gravitational wave modes of quasi-circular, spinning, non-precessing binary black hole mergers
Tian, Minyang, Huerta, E. A., Zheng, Huihuo
We introduce spatiotemporal-graph models that concurrently process data from the twin advanced LIGO detectors and the advanced Virgo detector. We trained these AI classifiers with 2.4 million IMRPhenomXPHM waveforms that describe quasi-circular, spinning, non-precessing binary black hole mergers with component masses $m_{\{1,2\}}\in[3M_\odot, 50 M_\odot]$, and individual spins $s^z_{\{1,2\}}\in[-0.9, 0.9]$; and which include the $(\ell, |m|) = \{(2, 2), (2, 1), (3, 3), (3, 2), (4, 4)\}$ modes, and mode mixing effects in the $\ell = 3, |m| = 2$ harmonics. We trained these AI classifiers within 22 hours using distributed training over 96 NVIDIA V100 GPUs in the Summit supercomputer. We then used transfer learning to create AI predictors that estimate the total mass of potential binary black holes identified by all AI classifiers in the ensemble. We used this ensemble, 3 classifiers for signal detection and 2 total mass predictors, to process a year-long test set in which we injected 300,000 signals. This year-long test set was processed within 5.19 minutes using 1024 NVIDIA A100 GPUs in the Polaris supercomputer (for AI inference) and 128 CPU nodes in the ThetaKNL supercomputer (for post-processing of noise triggers), housed at the Argonne Leadership Computing Facility. These studies indicate that our AI ensemble provides state-of-the-art signal detection accuracy, and reports 2 misclassifications for every year of searched data. This is the first AI ensemble designed to search for and find higher order gravitational wave mode signals.
Bengali Fake Reviews: A Benchmark Dataset and Detection System
Shahariar, G. M., Shawon, Md. Tanvir Rouf, Shah, Faisal Muhammad, Alam, Mohammad Shafiul, Mahbub, Md. Shahriar
The proliferation of fake reviews on various online platforms has created a major concern for both consumers and businesses. Such reviews can deceive customers and cause damage to the reputation of products or services, making it crucial to identify them. Although the detection of fake reviews has been extensively studied in English language, detecting fake reviews in non-English languages such as Bengali is still a relatively unexplored research area. This paper introduces the Bengali Fake Review Detection (BFRD) dataset, the first publicly available dataset for identifying fake reviews in Bengali. The dataset consists of 7710 non-fake and 1339 fake food-related reviews collected from social media posts. To convert non-Bengali words in a review, a unique pipeline has been proposed that translates English words to their corresponding Bengali meaning and also back transliterates Romanized Bengali to Bengali. We have conducted rigorous experimentation using multiple deep learning and pre-trained transformer language models to develop a reliable detection system. Finally, we propose a weighted ensemble model that combines four pre-trained transformers: BanglaBERT, BanglaBERT Base, BanglaBERT Large, and BanglaBERT Generator . According to the experiment results, the proposed ensemble model obtained a weighted F1-score of 0.9843 on 13390 reviews, including 1339 actual fake reviews and 5356 augmented fake reviews generated with the nlpaug library. The remaining 6695 reviews were randomly selected from the 7710 non-fake instances. The model achieved a 0.9558 weighted F1-score when the fake reviews were augmented using the bnaug library.
Risk-Controlling Model Selection via Guided Bayesian Optimization
Laufer-Goldshtein, Bracha, Fisch, Adam, Barzilay, Regina, Jaakkola, Tommi
Our goal in this paper is to find a configuration that adheres to user-specified limits on certain risks while being useful with respect to other conflicting metrics. We solve this by combining Bayesian Optimization (BO) with rigorous risk-controlling procedures, where our core idea is to steer BO towards an efficient testing strategy. Our BO method identifies a set of Pareto optimal configurations residing in a designated region of interest. The resulting candidates are statistically verified and the best-performing configuration is selected with guaranteed risk levels. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on a range of tasks with multiple desiderata, including low error rates, equitable predictions, handling spurious correlations, managing rate and distortion in generative models, and reducing computational costs. Deploying machine learning models in the real-world requires balancing different performance aspects such as low error rate, equality in predictive decisions (Hardt et al., 2016; Pessach & Shmueli, 2022), robustness to spurious correlations (Sagawa et al., 2019; Yang et al., 2023), and model efficiency (Laskaridis et al., 2021; Menghani, 2023). In many cases, we can influence the model's behavior favorably via sets of hyperparameters that determine the model configuration. However, selecting such a configuration that exactly meets user-defined requirements on test data is typically non-trivial, especially when considering a large number of objectives and configurations that are costly to assess (e.g., that require retraining large neural networks for new settings). Bayesian Optimization (BO) is widely used for efficiently selecting configurations of functions that require expensive evaluation, such as hyperparameters that govern the model architecture or influence the training procedure (Shahriari et al., 2015; Wang et al., 2022; Bischl et al., 2023). The basic concept is to substitute the costly function of interest with a cheap, and easily optimized, probabilistic surrogate model. This surrogate is used to select promising candidate configurations, while balancing exploration and exploitation.
BELIEF in Dependence: Leveraging Atomic Linearity in Data Bits for Rethinking Generalized Linear Models
Brown, Benjamin, Zhang, Kai, Meng, Xiao-Li
Two linearly uncorrelated binary variables must be also independent because non-linear dependence cannot manifest with only two possible states. This inherent linearity is the atom of dependency constituting any complex form of relationship. Inspired by this observation, we develop a framework called binary expansion linear effect (BELIEF) for understanding arbitrary relationships with a binary outcome. Models from the BELIEF framework are easily interpretable because they describe the association of binary variables in the language of linear models, yielding convenient theoretical insight and striking Gaussian parallels. With BELIEF, one may study generalized linear models (GLM) through transparent linear models, providing insight into how the choice of link affects modeling. For example, setting a GLM interaction coefficient to zero does not necessarily lead to the kind of no-interaction model assumption as understood under their linear model counterparts. Furthermore, for a binary response, maximum likelihood estimation for GLMs paradoxically fails under complete separation, when the data are most discriminative, whereas BELIEF estimation automatically reveals the perfect predictor in the data that is responsible for complete separation. We explore these phenomena and provide related theoretical results. We also provide preliminary empirical demonstration of some theoretical results.
ProtoEEGNet: An Interpretable Approach for Detecting Interictal Epileptiform Discharges
Tang, Dennis, Willard, Frank, Tegerdine, Ronan, Triplett, Luke, Donnelly, Jon, Moffett, Luke, Semenova, Lesia, Barnett, Alina Jade, Jing, Jin, Rudin, Cynthia, Westover, Brandon
In electroencephalogram (EEG) recordings, the presence of interictal epileptiform discharges (IEDs) serves as a critical biomarker for seizures or seizure-like events.Detecting IEDs can be difficult; even highly trained experts disagree on the same sample. As a result, specialists have turned to machine-learning models for assistance. However, many existing models are black boxes and do not provide any human-interpretable reasoning for their decisions. In high-stakes medical applications, it is critical to have interpretable models so that experts can validate the reasoning of the model before making important diagnoses. We introduce ProtoEEGNet, a model that achieves state-of-the-art accuracy for IED detection while additionally providing an interpretable justification for its classifications. Specifically, it can reason that one EEG looks similar to another ''prototypical'' EEG that is known to contain an IED. ProtoEEGNet can therefore help medical professionals effectively detect IEDs while maintaining a transparent decision-making process.