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ALCo-FM: Adaptive Long-Context Foundation Model for Accident Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Traffic accidents are rare, yet high-impact events that require long-context multimodal reasoning for accurate risk forecasting. In this paper, we introduce ALCo-FM, a unified adaptive long-context foundation model that computes a volatility pre-score to dynamically select context windows for input data and encodes and fuses these multimodal data via shallow cross attention. Following a local GAT layer and a BigBird-style sparse global transformer over H3 hexagonal grids, coupled with Monte Carlo dropout for confidence, the model yields superior, well-calibrated predictions. Trained on data from 15 US cities with a class-weighted loss to counter label imbalance, and fine-tuned with minimal data on held-out cities, ALCo-FM achieves 0.94 accuracy, 0.92 F1, and an ECE of 0.04, outperforming more than 20 state-of-the-art baselines in large-scale urban risk prediction. Code and dataset are available at: https://github.com/PinakiPrasad12/ALCo-FM


AblationBench: Evaluating Automated Planning of Ablations in Empirical AI Research

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Autonomous agents built on language models (LMs) are showing increasing popularity in many fields, including scientific research. AI co-scientists aim to support or automate parts of the research process using these agents. A key component of empirical AI research is the design of ablation experiments. To this end, we introduce AblationBench, a benchmark suite for evaluating agents on ablation planning tasks in empirical AI research. It includes two tasks: AuthorAblation, which helps authors propose ablation experiments based on a method section and contains 83 instances, and ReviewerAblation, which helps reviewers find missing ablations in a full paper and contains 350 instances. For both tasks, we develop LM-based judges that serve as an automatic evaluation framework. Our experiments with frontier LMs show that these tasks remain challenging, with the best-performing LM system identifying only 29% of the original ablations on average. Lastly, we analyze the limitations of current LMs on these tasks, and find that chain-of-thought prompting outperforms the currently existing agent-based approach.


Addressing Pitfalls in Auditing Practices of Automatic Speech Recognition Technologies: A Case Study of People with Aphasia

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) has transformed daily tasks from video transcription to workplace hiring. ASR systems' growing use warrants robust and standardized auditing approaches to ensure automated transcriptions of high and equitable quality. This is especially critical for people with speech and language disorders (such as aphasia) who may disproportionately depend on ASR systems to navigate everyday life. In this work, we identify three pitfalls in existing standard ASR auditing procedures, and demonstrate how addressing them impacts audit results via a case study of six popular ASR systems' performance for aphasia speakers. First, audits often adhere to a single method of text standardization during data pre-processing, which (a) masks variability in ASR performance from applying different standardization methods, and (b) may not be consistent with how users - especially those from marginalized speech communities - would want their transcriptions to be standardized. Second, audits often display high-level demographic findings without further considering performance disparities among (a) more nuanced demographic subgroups, and (b) relevant covariates capturing acoustic information from the input audio. Third, audits often rely on a single gold-standard metric -- the Word Error Rate -- which does not fully capture the extent of errors arising from generative AI models, such as transcription hallucinations. We propose a more holistic auditing framework that accounts for these three pitfalls, and exemplify its results in our case study, finding consistently worse ASR performance for aphasia speakers relative to a control group. We call on practitioners to implement these robust ASR auditing practices that remain flexible to the rapidly changing ASR landscape.


Generative Adversarial Evasion and Out-of-Distribution Detection for UAV Cyber-Attacks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The growing integration of UAVs into civilian airspace underscores the need for resilient and intelligent intrusion detection systems (IDS), as traditional anomaly detection methods often fail to identify novel threats. A common approach treats unfamiliar attacks as out-of-distribution (OOD) samples; however, this leaves systems vulnerable when mitigation is inadequate. Moreover, conventional OOD detectors struggle to distinguish stealthy adversarial attacks from genuine OOD events. This paper introduces a conditional generative adversarial network (cGAN)-based framework for crafting stealthy adversarial attacks that evade IDS mechanisms. We first design a robust multi-class IDS classifier trained on benign UAV telemetry and known cyber-attacks, including Denial of Service (DoS), false data injection (FDI), man-in-the-middle (MiTM), and replay attacks. Using this classifier, our cGAN perturbs known attacks to generate adversarial samples that misclassify as benign while retaining statistical resemblance to OOD distributions. These adversarial samples are iteratively refined to achieve high stealth and success rates. To detect such perturbations, we implement a conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE), leveraging negative log-likelihood to separate adversarial inputs from authentic OOD samples. Comparative evaluation shows that CVAE-based regret scores significantly outperform traditional Mahalanobis distance-based detectors in identifying stealthy adversarial threats. Our findings emphasize the importance of advanced probabilistic modeling to strengthen IDS capabilities against adaptive, generative-model-based cyber intrusions.


Comparative sentiment analysis of public perception: Monkeypox vs. COVID-19 behavioral insights

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The emergence of global health crises, such as COVID-19 and Monkeypox (mpox), has underscored the importance of understanding public sentiment to inform effective public health strategies. This study conducts a comparative sentiment analysis of public perceptions surrounding COVID-19 and mpox by leveraging extensive datasets of 147,475 and 106,638 tweets, respectively. Advanced machine learning models, including Logistic Regression, Naive Bayes, RoBERTa, DistilRoBERTa and XLNet, were applied to perform sentiment classification, with results indicating key trends in public emotion and discourse. The analysis highlights significant differences in public sentiment driven by disease characteristics, media representation, and pandemic fatigue. Through the lens of sentiment polarity and thematic trends, this study offers valuable insights into tailoring public health messaging, mitigating misinformation, and fostering trust during concurrent health crises. The findings contribute to advancing sentiment analysis applications in public health informatics, setting the groundwork for enhanced real-time monitoring and multilingual analysis in future research.


Frontier LLMs Still Struggle with Simple Reasoning Tasks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

While state-of-the-art large language models (LLMs) demonstrate advanced reasoning capabilities-achieving remarkable performance on challenging competitive math and coding benchmarks-they also frequently fail on tasks that are easy for humans. This work studies the performance of frontier LLMs on a broad set of such "easy" reasoning problems. By extending previous work in the literature, we create a suite of procedurally generated simple reasoning tasks, including counting, first-order logic, proof trees, and travel planning, with changeable parameters (such as document length. or the number of variables in a math problem) that can arbitrarily increase the amount of computation required to produce the answer while preserving the fundamental difficulty. While previous work showed that traditional, non-thinking models can be made to fail on such problems, we demonstrate that even state-of-the-art thinking models consistently fail on such problems and for similar reasons (e.g. statistical shortcuts, errors in intermediate steps, and difficulties in processing long contexts). To further understand the behavior of the models, we introduce the unpuzzles dataset, a different "easy" benchmark consisting of trivialized versions of well-known math and logic puzzles. Interestingly, while modern LLMs excel at solving the original puzzles, they tend to fail on the trivialized versions, exhibiting several systematic failure patterns related to memorizing the originals. We show that this happens even if the models are otherwise able to solve problems with different descriptions but requiring the same logic. Our results highlight that out-of-distribution generalization is still problematic for frontier language models and the new generation of thinking models, even for simple reasoning tasks, and making tasks easier does not necessarily imply improved performance.


Identification of Violin Reduction via Contour Lines Classification

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The first violins appeared in late 16th-century Italy. Over the next 200 years, they spread across Europe and luthiers of various royal courts, eager to experiment with new techniques, created a highly diverse family of instruments. Around 1750, size standards were introduced to unify violin making for orchestras and conservatories. Instruments that fell between two standards were then reduced to a smaller size by luthiers. These reductions have an impact on several characteristics of violins, in particular on the contour lines, i.e. lines of constant altitude, which look more like a U for non reduced instruments and a V for reduced ones. While such differences are observed by experts, they have not been studied quantitatively. This paper presents a method for classifying violins as reduced or non-reduced based on their contour lines. We study a corpus of 25 instruments whose 3D geometric meshes were acquired via photogrammetry. For each instrument, we extract 10-20 contour lines regularly spaced every millimetre. Each line is fitted with a parabola-like curve (with an equation of the type y = alpha*abs(x)**beta) depending on two parameters, describing how open (beta) and how vertically stretched (alpha) the curve is. We compute additional features from those parameters, using regressions and counting how many values fall under some threshold. We also deal with outliers and non equal numbers of levels, and eventually obtain a numerical profile for each instrument. We then apply classification methods to assess whether geometry alone can predict size reduction. We find that distinguishing between reduced and non reduced instruments is feasible to some degree, taking into account that a whole spectrum of more or less transformed violins exists, for which it is more difficult to quantify the reduction. We also find the opening parameter beta to be the most predictive.


Stress Monitoring in Healthcare: An Ensemble Machine Learning Framework Using Wearable Sensor Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Healthcare professionals, particularly nurses, face elevated occupational stress, a concern amplified during the COVID-19 pandemic. While wearable sensors offer promising avenues for real-time stress monitoring, existing studies often lack comprehensive datasets and robust analytical frameworks. This study addresses these gaps by introducing a multimodal dataset comprising physiological signals, electrodermal activity, heart rate and skin temperature. A systematic literature review identified limitations in prior stress-detection methodologies, particularly in handling class imbalance and optimizing model generalizability. To overcome these challenges, the dataset underwent preprocessing with the Synthetic Minority Over sampling Technique (SMOTE), ensuring balanced representation of stress states. Advanced machine learning models including Random Forest, XGBoost and a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) were evaluated and combined into a Stacking Classifier to leverage their collective predictive strengths. By using a publicly accessible dataset and a reproducible analytical pipeline, this work advances the development of deployable stress-monitoring systems, offering practical implications for safeguarding healthcare workers' mental health. Future research directions include expanding demographic diversity and exploring edge-computing implementations for low latency stress alerts.


NexViTAD: Few-shot Unsupervised Cross-Domain Defect Detection via Vision Foundation Models and Multi-Task Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper presents a novel few-shot cross-domain anomaly detection framework, Nexus Vision Transformer for Anomaly Detection (NexViTAD), based on vision foundation models, which effectively addresses domain-shift challenges in industrial anomaly detection through innovative shared subspace projection mechanisms and multi-task learning (MTL) module. The main innovations include: (1) a hierarchical adapter module that adaptively fuses complementary features from Hiera and DINO-v2 pre-trained models, constructing more robust feature representations; (2) a shared subspace projection strategy that enables effective cross-domain knowledge transfer through bottleneck dimension constraints and skip connection mechanisms; (3) a MTL Decoder architecture supports simultaneous processing of multiple source domains, significantly enhancing model generalization capabilities; (4) an anomaly score inference method based on Sinkhorn-K-means clustering, combined with Gaussian filtering and adaptive threshold processing for precise pixel level. Valuated on the MVTec AD dataset, NexViTAD delivers state-of-the-art performance with an AUC of 97.5%, AP of 70.4%, and PRO of 95.2% in the target domains, surpassing other recent models, marking a transformative advance in cross-domain defect detection.


Real-Time Decorrelation-Based Anomaly Detection for Multivariate Time Series

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Anomaly detection (AD) plays a vital role across a wide range of real-world domains by identifying data instances that deviate from expected patterns, potentially signaling critical events such as system failures, fraudulent activities, or rare medical conditions. The demand for real-time AD has surged with the rise of the (Industrial) Internet of Things, where massive volumes of multivariate sensor data must be processed instantaneously. Real-time AD requires methods that not only handle high-dimensional streaming data but also operate in a single-pass manner, without the burden of storing historical instances, thereby ensuring minimal memory usage and fast decision-making. We propose DAD, a novel real-time decorrelation-based anomaly detection method for multivariate time series, based on an online decorrelation learning approach. Unlike traditional proximity-based or reconstruction-based detectors that process entire data or windowed instances, DAD dynamically learns and monitors the correlation structure of data sample by sample in a single pass, enabling efficient and effective detection. To support more realistic benchmarking practices, we also introduce a practical hyperparameter tuning strategy tailored for real-time anomaly detection scenarios. Extensive experiments on widely used benchmark datasets demonstrate that DAD achieves the most consistent and superior performance across diverse anomaly types compared to state-of-the-art methods. Crucially, its robustness to increasing dimensionality makes it particularly well-suited for real-time, high-dimensional data streams. Ultimately, DAD not only strikes an optimal balance between detection efficacy and computational efficiency but also sets a new standard for real-time, memory-constrained anomaly detection.