Transformers have revolutionized nucleotide sequence analysis, yet capturing long-range dependencies remains challenging. Recent studies show that autoregressive transformers often exhibit Markovian behavior by relying on fixed-length context windows for next-token prediction. However, standard self-attention mechanisms are computationally inefficient for long sequences due to their quadratic complexity and do not explicitly enforce global transition consistency. We introduce CARMANIA (Context-Aware Regularization with Markovian Integration for Attention-Based Nucleotide Analysis), a self-supervised pretraining framework that augments next-token (NT) prediction with a transition-matrix (TM) loss. The TM loss aligns predicted token transitions with empirically derived n-gram statistics from each input sequence, encouraging the model to capture higher-order dependencies beyond local context. This integration enables CARMANIA to learn organism-specific sequence structures that reflect both evolutionary constraints and functional organization. We evaluate CARMANIA across diverse genomic tasks, including regulatory element prediction, functional gene classification, taxonomic inference, antimicrobial resistance detection, and biosynthetic gene cluster classification. CARMANIA outperforms the previous best long-context model by at least 7 percent, matches state-of-the-art on shorter sequences (exceeding prior results on 20 out of 40 tasks while running approximately 2.5 times faster), and shows particularly strong improvements on enhancer and housekeeping gene classification tasks, including up to a 34 percent absolute gain in Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) for enhancer prediction. The TM loss boosts accuracy in 33 of 40 tasks, especially where local motifs or regulatory patterns drive prediction.

The distribution of data changes over time; models operating in dynamic environments need retraining. But knowing when to retrain, without access to labels, is an open challenge since some, but not all shifts degrade model performance. This paper formalizes and addresses the problem of post-deployment deterioration (PDD) monitoring. We propose D3M, a practical and efficient monitoring algorithm based on the disagreement of predictive models, achieving low false positive rates under non-deteriorating shifts and provides sample complexity bounds for high true positive rates under deteriorating shifts. Empirical results on both standard benchmark and a real-world large-scale internal medicine dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of the framework and highlight its viability as an alert mechanism for high-stakes machine learning pipelines.

Quantitative assessment of treatment response in Advanced Prostate Cancer (APC) with bone metastases remains an unmet clinical need. Whole-Body Diffusion-Weighted MRI (WB-DWI) provides two response biomarkers: Total Diffusion Volume (TDV) and global Apparent Diffusion Coefficient (gADC). However, tracking post-treatment changes of TDV and gADC from manually delineated lesions is cumbersome and increases inter-reader variability. We developed a software to automate this process. Core technologies include: (i) a weakly-supervised Residual U-Net model generating a skeleton probability map to isolate bone; (ii) a statistical framework for WB-DWI intensity normalisation, obtaining a signal-normalised b=900s/mm^2 (b900) image; and (iii) a shallow convolutional neural network that processes outputs from (i) and (ii) to generate a mask of suspected bone lesions, characterised by higher b900 signal intensity due to restricted water diffusion. This mask is applied to the gADC map to extract TDV and gADC statistics. We tested the tool using expert-defined metastatic bone disease delineations on 66 datasets, assessed repeatability of imaging biomarkers (N=10), and compared software-based response assessment with a construct reference standard (N=118). Average dice score between manual and automated delineations was 0.6 for lesions within pelvis and spine, with an average surface distance of 2mm. Relative differences for log-transformed TDV (log-TDV) and median gADC were 8.8% and 5%, respectively. Repeatability analysis showed coefficients of variation of 4.6% for log-TDV and 3.5% for median gADC, with intraclass correlation coefficients of 0.94 or higher. The software achieved 80.5% accuracy, 84.3% sensitivity, and 85.7% specificity in assessing response to treatment. Average computation time was 90s per scan.

As AI deployments become more complex and high-stakes, it becomes increasingly important to be able to estimate their risk. AI control is one framework for doing so. However, good control evaluations require eliciting strong attack policies. This can be challenging in complex agentic environments where compute constraints leave us data-poor. In this work, we show how to optimize attack policies in SHADE-Arena, a dataset of diverse realistic control environments. We do this by decomposing attack capability into five constituent skills -- suspicion modeling, attack selection, plan synthesis, execution and subtlety -- and optimizing each component individually. To get around the constraint of limited data, we develop a probabilistic model of attack dynamics, optimize our attack hyperparameters using this simulation, and then show that the results transfer to SHADE-Arena. This results in a substantial improvement in attack strength, reducing safety score from a baseline of 0.87 to 0.41 using our scaffold.

In Major League Baseball, strategy and planning are major factors in determining the outcome of a game. Previous studies have aided this by building machine learning models for predicting the winning team of any given game. We extend this work by training a comprehensive set of machine learning models using a common dataset. In addition, we relate the win probabilities produced by these models to win strength as measured by score differential. In doing so we show that the most common machine learning models do indeed demonstrate a relationship between predicted win probability and the strength of the win. Finally, we analyze the results of using predicted win probabilities as a decision making mechanism on run-line betting. We demonstrate positive returns when utilizing appropriate betting strategies, and show that naive use of machine learning models for betting lead to significant loses.

Abstract--Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in critical security applications, such as alert analysis, threat detection, threat intelligence, and incident response. Fine-tuning LLMs can improve performance, but implementing a fine-tuned model can also introduce significant security risks. This paper investigates some of the risks introduced by "LLM poisoning," the intentional or unintentional introduction of malicious or biased data during model training. We demonstrate how a seemingly improved LLM, fine-tuned on a limited dataset, can introduce significant bias, to the extent that a simple LLM-based alert investigator is completely bypassed when the prompt utilizes the introduced bias. Using fine-tuned Llama3.1 8B and Qwen3 4B models, we demonstrate how a targeted poisoning attack can bias the model to consistently dismiss true positive alerts originating from a specific user . Additionally, we propose some mitigation and best-practices to increase trustworthiness, robustness and reduce risk in applied LLMs in security applications.

We introduce Omega^2, a Large Language Model-driven framework for corporate credit scoring that combines structured financial data with advanced machine learning to improve predictive reliability and interpretability. Our study evaluates Omega^2 on a multi-agency dataset of 7,800 corporate credit ratings drawn from Moody's, Standard & Poor's, Fitch, and Egan-Jones, each containing detailed firm-level financial indicators such as leverage, profitability, and liquidity ratios. The system integrates CatBoost, LightGBM, and XGBoost models optimized through Bayesian search under temporal validation to ensure forward-looking and reproducible results. Omega^2 achieved a mean test AUC above 0.93 across agencies, confirming its ability to generalize across rating systems and maintain temporal consistency. These results show that combining language-based reasoning with quantitative learning creates a transparent and institution-grade foundation for reliable corporate credit-risk assessment.

We investigate theoretical guarantees for the false-negative rate (FNR) -- the fraction of true causal edges whose orientation is not recovered, under single-variable random interventions and an $ε$-interventional faithfulness assumption that accommodates latent confounding. For sparse Erdős--Rényi directed acyclic graphs, where the edge probability scales as $p_e = Θ(1/d)$, we show that the FNR concentrates around its mean at rate $O(\frac{\log d}{\sqrt d})$, implying that large deviations above the expected error become exponentially unlikely as dimensionality increases. This concentration ensures that derived upper bounds hold with high probability in large-scale settings. Extending the analysis to generalized Barabási--Albert graphs reveals an even stronger phenomenon: when the degree exponent satisfies $γ> 3$, the deviation width scales as $O(d^{β- \frac{1}{2}})$ with $β= 1/(γ- 1) < \frac{1}{2}$, and hence vanishes in the limit. This demonstrates that realistic scale-free topologies intrinsically regularize causal discovery, reducing variability in orientation error. These finite-dimension results provide the first dimension-adaptive, faithfulness-robust guarantees for causal structure recovery, and challenge the intuition that high dimensionality and network heterogeneity necessarily hinder accurate discovery. Our simulation results corroborate these theoretical predictions, showing that the FNR indeed concentrates and often vanishes in practice as dimensionality grows.

Recent advances in multi-modal models have demonstrated strong performance in tasks such as image generation and reasoning. However, applying these models to the fire domain remains challenging due to the lack of publicly available datasets with high-quality fire domain annotations. To address this gap, we introduce DetectiumFire, a large-scale, multi-modal dataset comprising of 22.5k high-resolution fire-related images and 2.5k real-world fire-related videos covering a wide range of fire types, environments, and risk levels. The data are annotated with both traditional computer vision labels (e.g., bounding boxes) and detailed textual prompts describing the scene, enabling applications such as synthetic data generation and fire risk reasoning. DetectiumFire offers clear advantages over existing benchmarks in scale, diversity, and data quality, significantly reducing redundancy and enhancing coverage of real-world scenarios. We validate the utility of DetectiumFire across multiple tasks, including object detection, diffusion-based image generation, and vision-language reasoning. Our results highlight the potential of this dataset to advance fire-related research and support the development of intelligent safety systems. We release DetectiumFire to promote broader exploration of fire understanding in the AI community. The dataset is available at https://kaggle.com/datasets/38b79c344bdfc55d1eed3d22fbaa9c31fad45e27edbbe9e3c529d6e5c4f93890

With the recent success of generative models in image and text, the question of their evaluation has recently gained a lot of attention. While most methods from the state of the art rely on scalar metrics, the introduction of Precision and Recall (PR) for generative model has opened up a new avenue of research. The associated PR curve allows for a richer analysis, but their estimation poses several challenges. In this paper, we present a new framework for estimating entire PR curves based on a binary classification standpoint. We conduct a thorough statistical analysis of the proposed estimates. As a byproduct, we obtain a minimax upper bound on the PR estimation risk. We also show that our framework extends several landmark PR metrics of the literature which by design are restrained to the extreme values of the curve. Finally, we study the different behaviors of the curves obtained experimentally in various settings.