Healthcare sector indices consolidate the economic health of pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and healthcare service firms. The short-term movements in these indices are closely intertwined with capital allocation decisions affecting research and development investment, drug availability, and long-term health outcomes. This research investigates whether historical open-high-low-close (OHLC) index data contain sufficient information for predicting the directional movement of the opening index on the subsequent trading day. The problem is formulated as a supervised classification task involving a one-step-ahead rolling window. A diverse feature set is constructed, comprising original prices, volatility-based technical indicators, and a novel class of nowcasting features derived from mutual OHLC ratios. The framework is evaluated on data from healthcare indices in the U.S. and Indian markets over a five-year period spanning multiple economic phases, including the COVID-19 pandemic. The results demonstrate robust predictive performance, with accuracy exceeding 0.8 and Matthews correlation coefficients above 0.6. Notably, the proposed nowcasting features have emerged as a key determinant of the market movement. We have employed the Shapley-based explainability paradigm to further elucidate the contribution of the features: outcomes reveal the dominant role of the nowcasting features, followed by a more moderate contribution of original prices. This research offers a societal utility: the proposed features and model for short-term forecasting of healthcare indices can reduce information asymmetry and support a more stable and equitable health economy.

Intermittent time series, characterised by the presence of a significant amount of zeros, constitute a large percentage of inventory items in supply chain. Probabilistic forecasts are needed to plan the inventory levels; the predictive distribution should cover non-negative values, have a mass in zero and a long upper tail. Intermittent time series are commonly forecast using local models, which are trained individually on each time series. In the last years global models, which are trained on a large collection of time series, have become popular for time series forecasting. Global models are often based on neural networks. However, they have not yet been exhaustively tested on intermittent time series. We carry out the first study comparing state-of-the-art local (iETS, TweedieGP) and global models (D-Linear, DeepAR, Transformers) on intermittent time series. For neural networks models we consider three different distribution heads suitable for intermittent time series: negative binomial, hurdle-shifted negative binomial and Tweedie. We use, for the first time, the last two distribution heads with neural networks. We perform experiments on five large datasets comprising more than 40'000 real-world time series. Among neural networks D-Linear provides best accuracy; it also consistently outperforms the local models. Moreover, it has also low computational requirements. Transformers-based architectures are instead much more computationally demanding and less accurate. Among the distribution heads, the Tweedie provides the best estimates of the highest quantiles, while the negative binomial offers overall the best performance.

Orthogonal and 1-Lipschitz neural network layers are essential building blocks in robust deep learning architectures, crucial for certified adversarial robustness, stable generative models, and reliable recurrent networks. Despite significant advancements, existing implementations remain fragmented, limited, and computationally demanding. To address these issues, we introduce Orthogonium , a unified, efficient, and comprehensive PyTorch library providing orthogonal and 1-Lipschitz layers. Orthogonium provides access to standard convolution features-including support for strides, dilation, grouping, and transposed-while maintaining strict mathematical guarantees. Its optimized implementations reduce overhead on large scale benchmarks such as ImageNet. Moreover, rigorous testing within the library has uncovered critical errors in existing implementations, emphasizing the importance of standardized and reliable tools. Orthogonium thus significantly lowers adoption barriers, enabling scalable experimentation and integration across diverse applications requiring orthogonality and robust Lipschitz constraints. Orthogonium is available at https://github.com/deel-ai/orthogonium.

The Muon optimizer, a matrix-structured algorithm that leverages spectral orthogonalization of gradients, is a milestone in the pretraining of large language models. However, the underlying mechanisms of Muon -- particularly the role of gradient orthogonalization -- remain poorly understood, with very few works providing end-to-end analyses that rigorously explain its advantages in concrete applications. We take a step by studying the effectiveness of a simplified variant of Muon through two case studies: matrix factorization, and in-context learning of linear transformers. For both problems, we prove that simplified Muon converges linearly with iteration complexities independent of the relevant condition number, provably outperforming gradient descent and Adam. Our analysis reveals that the Muon dynamics decouple into a collection of independent scalar sequences in the spectral domain, each exhibiting similar convergence behavior. Our theory formalizes the preconditioning effect induced by spectral orthogonalization, offering insight into Muon's effectiveness in these matrix optimization problems and potentially beyond.

We develop a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) framework for uncertainty quantification with Monte Carlo dropout. Treating dropout masks as a source of epistemic randomness, we define a fidelity hierarchy by the number of stochastic forward passes used to estimate predictive moments. We construct coupled coarse--fine estimators by reusing dropout masks across fidelities, yielding telescoping MLMC estimators for both predictive means and predictive variances that remain unbiased for the corresponding dropout-induced quantities while reducing sampling variance at fixed evaluation budget. We derive explicit bias, variance and effective cost expressions, together with sample-allocation rules across levels. Numerical experiments on forward and inverse PINNs--Uzawa benchmarks confirm the predicted variance rates and demonstrate efficiency gains over single-level MC-dropout at matched cost.

Online continual learning (OCL) methods adapt to changing environments without forgetting past knowledge. Similarly, online time series forecasting (OTSF) is a real-world problem where data evolve in time and success depends on both rapid adaptation and long-term memory. Indeed, time-varying and regime-switching forecasting models have been extensively studied, offering a strong justification for the use of OCL in these settings. Building on recent work that applies OCL to OTSF, this paper aims to strengthen the theoretical and practical connections between time series methods and OCL. First, we reframe neural network optimization as a parameter filtering problem, showing that natural gradient descent is a score-driven method and proving its information-theoretic optimality. Then, we show that using a Student's t likelihood in addition to natural gradient induces a bounded update, which improves robustness to outliers. Finally, we introduce Natural Score-driven Replay (NatSR), which combines our robust optimizer with a replay buffer and a dynamic scale heuristic that improves fast adaptation at regime drifts. Empirical results demonstrate that NatSR achieves stronger forecasting performance than more complex state-of-the-art methods.

Computing $\log\det(A)$ for large symmetric positive definite matrices arises in Gaussian process inference and Bayesian model comparison. Standard methods combine matrix-vector products with polynomial approximations. We study a different model: access to trace powers $p_k = \tr(A^k)$, natural when matrix powers are available. Classical moment-based approximations Taylor-expand $\log(λ)$ around the arithmetic mean. This requires $|λ- \AM| < \AM$ and diverges when $κ> 4$. We work instead with the moment-generating function $M(t) = \E[X^t]$ for normalized eigenvalues $X = λ/\AM$. Since $M'(0) = \E[\log X]$, the log-determinant becomes $\log\det(A) = n(\log \AM + M'(0))$ -- the problem reduces to estimating a derivative at $t = 0$. Trace powers give $M(k)$ at positive integers, but interpolating $M(t)$ directly is ill-conditioned due to exponential growth. The transform $K(t) = \log M(t)$ compresses this range. Normalization by $\AM$ ensures $K(0) = K(1) = 0$. With these anchors fixed, we interpolate $K$ through $m+1$ consecutive integers and differentiate to estimate $K'(0)$. However, this local interpolation cannot capture arbitrary spectral features. We prove a fundamental limit: no continuous estimator using finitely many positive moments can be uniformly accurate over unbounded conditioning. Positive moments downweight the spectral tail; $K'(0) = \E[\log X]$ is tail-sensitive. This motivates guaranteed bounds. From the same traces we derive upper bounds on $(\det A)^{1/n}$. Given a spectral floor $r \leq λ_{\min}$, we obtain moment-constrained lower bounds, yielding a provable interval for $\log\det(A)$. A gap diagnostic indicates when to trust the point estimate and when to report bounds. All estimators and bounds cost $O(m)$, independent of $n$. For $m \in \{4, \ldots, 8\}$, this is effectively constant time.

We address the following question: given a collection $\{\mathbf{A}^{(1)}, \dots, \mathbf{A}^{(N)}\}$ of independent $d \times d$ random matrices drawn from a common distribution $\mathbb{P}$, what is the probability that the centralizer of $\{\mathbf{A}^{(1)}, \dots, \mathbf{A}^{(N)}\}$ is trivial? We provide lower bounds on this probability in terms of the sample size $N$ and the dimension $d$ for several families of random matrices which arise from the discretization of linear Schrödinger operators with random potentials. When combined with recent work on machine learning theory, our results provide guarantees on the generalization ability of transformer-based neural networks for in-context learning of Schrödinger equations.

Real-world tabular databases routinely combine continuous measurements and categorical records, yet missing entries are pervasive and can distort downstream analysis. We propose Statistical-Neural Interaction (SNI), an interpretable mixed-type imputation framework that couples correlation-derived statistical priors with neural feature attention through a Controllable-Prior Feature Attention (CPFA) module. CPFA learns head-wise prior-strength coefficients $\{λ_h\}$ that softly regularize attention toward the prior while allowing data-driven deviations when nonlinear patterns appear to be present in the data. Beyond imputation, SNI aggregates attention maps into a directed feature-dependency matrix that summarizes which variables the imputer relied on, without requiring post-hoc explainers. We evaluate SNI against six baselines (Mean/Mode, MICE, KNN, MissForest, GAIN, MIWAE) on six datasets spanning ICU monitoring, population surveys, socio-economic statistics, and engineering applications. Under MCAR/strict-MAR at 30\% missingness, SNI is generally competitive on continuous metrics but is often outperformed by accuracy-first baselines (MissForest, MIWAE) on categorical variables; in return, it provides intrinsic dependency diagnostics and explicit statistical-neural trade-off parameters. We additionally report MNAR stress tests (with a mask-aware variant) and discuss computational cost, limitations -- particularly for severely imbalanced categorical targets -- and deployment scenarios where interpretability may justify the trade-off.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in economics as predictive tools--both to generate synthetic responses in place of human subjects (Horton, 2023; Anthis et al., 2025), and to forecast economic outcomes directly (Hewitt et al., 2024a; Faria-e Castro and Leibovici, 2024; Chan-Lau et al., 2025). Their appeal in these roles is obvious: A pretrained LLM embeds a vast amount of information and can be deployed at negligible cost, often in settings where collecting new, domain-specific human data would be expensive or infeasible. What remains unclear is how to assess the quality of these predictions. This paper proposes a measure that quantifies the domain-specific value of LLMs in an interpretable unit: the amount of human data they substitute for. Specifically, we ask how much human data would be required for a conventional model trained on that data to match the predictive performance of the pretrained LLM in that domain.