Maps of dynamics are effective representations of motion patterns learned from prior observations, with recent research demonstrating their ability to enhance performance in various downstream tasks such as human-aware robot navigation, long-term human motion prediction, and robot localization. Current advancements have primarily concentrated on methods for learning maps of human flow in environments where the flow is static, i.e., not assumed to change over time. In this paper we propose a method to update the CLiFF-map, one type of map of dynamics, for achieving efficient life-long robot operation. As new observations are collected, our goal is to update a CLiFF-map to effectively and accurately integrate new observations, while retaining relevant historic motion patterns. The proposed online update method maintains a probabilistic representation in each observed location, updating parameters by continuously tracking sufficient statistics. In experiments using both synthetic and real-world datasets, we show that our method is able to maintain accurate representations of human motion dynamics, contributing to high performance flow-compliant planning downstream tasks, while being orders of magnitude faster than the comparable baselines.

The burgeoning field of Natural Language Processing (NLP) stands at a critical juncture where the integration of fairness within its frameworks has become an imperative. This PhD thesis addresses the need for equity and transparency in NLP systems, recognizing that fairness in NLP is not merely a technical challenge but a moral and ethical necessity, requiring a rigorous examination of how these technologies interact with and impact diverse human populations. Through this lens, this thesis undertakes a thorough investigation into the development of equitable NLP methodologies and the evaluation of biases that prevail in current systems. First, it introduces an innovative algorithm to mitigate biases in multi-class classifiers, tailored for high-risk NLP applications, surpassing traditional methods in both bias mitigation and prediction accuracy. Then, an analysis of the Bios dataset reveals the impact of dataset size on discriminatory biases and the limitations of standard fairness metrics. This awareness has led to explorations in the field of explainable AI, aiming for a more complete understanding of biases where traditional metrics are limited. Consequently, the thesis presents COCKATIEL, a model-agnostic explainability method that identifies and ranks concepts in Transformer models, outperforming previous approaches in sentiment analysis tasks. Finally, the thesis contributes to bridging the gap between fairness and explainability by introducing TaCo, a novel method to neutralize bias in Transformer model embeddings. In conclusion, this thesis constitutes a significant interdisciplinary endeavor that intertwines explicability and fairness to challenge and reshape current NLP paradigms. The methodologies and critiques presented contribute to the ongoing discourse on fairness in machine learning, offering actionable solutions for more equitable and responsible AI systems.

Previous studies on two-timescale stochastic approximation (SA) mainly focused on bounding mean-squared errors under diminishing stepsize schemes. In this work, we investigate {\it constant} stpesize schemes through the lens of Markov processes, proving that the iterates of both timescales converge to a unique joint stationary distribution in Wasserstein metric. We derive explicit geometric and non-asymptotic convergence rates, as well as the variance and bias introduced by constant stepsizes in the presence of Markovian noise. Specifically, with two constant stepsizes $\alpha < \beta$, we show that the biases scale linearly with both stepsizes as $\Theta(\alpha)+\Theta(\beta)$ up to higher-order terms, while the variance of the slower iterate (resp., faster iterate) scales only with its own stepsize as $O(\alpha)$ (resp., $O(\beta)$). Unlike previous work, our results require no additional assumptions such as $\beta^2 \ll \alpha$ nor extra dependence on dimensions. These fine-grained characterizations allow tail-averaging and extrapolation techniques to reduce variance and bias, improving mean-squared error bound to $O(\beta^4 + \frac{1}{t})$ for both iterates.

Contemporary machine learning methods will try to approach the Bayes error, as it is the lowest possible error any model can achieve. This paper postulates that any decision is composed of not one but two Bayesian decisions and that decision-making is, therefore, a double-Bayesian process. The paper shows how this duality implies intrinsic uncertainty in decisions and how it incorporates explainability. The proposed approach understands that Bayesian learning is tantamount to finding a base for a logarithmic function measuring uncertainty, with solutions being fixed points. Furthermore, following this approach, the golden ratio describes possible solutions satisfying Bayes' theorem. The double-Bayesian framework suggests using a learning rate and momentum weight with values similar to those used in the literature to train neural networks with stochastic gradient descent.

Motivated by information geometry, a distance function on the space of stochastic matrices is advocated. Starting with sequences of Markov chains the Bhattacharyya angle is advocated as the natural tool for comparing both short and long term Markov chain runs. Bounds on the convergence of the distance and mixing times are derived. Guided by the desire to compare different Markov chain models, especially in the setting of healthcare processes, a new distance function on the space of stochastic matrices is presented. It is a true distance measure which has a closed form and is efficient to implement for numerical evaluation. In the case of ergodic Markov chains, it is shown that considering either the Bhattacharyya angle on Markov sequences or the new stochastic matrix distance leads to the same distance between models.

We address the challenge of explaining counterfactual outcomes in multi-agent Markov decision processes. In particular, we aim to explain the total counterfactual effect of an agent's action on the outcome of a realized scenario through its influence on the environment dynamics and the agents' behavior. To achieve this, we introduce a novel causal explanation formula that decomposes the counterfactual effect by attributing to each agent and state variable a score reflecting their respective contributions to the effect. First, we show that the total counterfactual effect of an agent's action can be decomposed into two components: one measuring the effect that propagates through all subsequent agents' actions and another related to the effect that propagates through the state transitions. Building on recent advancements in causal contribution analysis, we further decompose these two effects as follows. For the former, we consider agent-specific effects - a causal concept that quantifies the counterfactual effect of an agent's action that propagates through a subset of agents. Based on this notion, we use Shapley value to attribute the effect to individual agents. For the latter, we consider the concept of structure-preserving interventions and attribute the effect to state variables based on their "intrinsic" contributions. Through extensive experimentation, we demonstrate the interpretability of our decomposition approach in a Gridworld environment with LLM-assisted agents and a sepsis management simulator. Applying counterfactual reasoning to retrospectively analyze the impact of different actions in decision making scenarios is fundamental for accountability. To achieve such objectives, many studies often rely on the notion of total counterfactual effects, which quantifies the extent to which an alternative action would have affected the outcome of a realized scenario. In multi-agent sequential decision making, an agent's action typically affects the outcome indirectly. To illustrate this, consider the problem of AI-assisted decision making in healthcare (Lynn, 2019), where a clinician and their AI assistant treat a patient over a period of time.

This paper introduces the Bayesian Confidence Estimator (BACON) for deep neural networks. Current practice of interpreting Softmax values in the output layer as probabilities of outcomes is prone to extreme predictions of class probability. In this work we extend Waagen's method of representing the terminal layers with a geometric model, where the probability associated with an output vector is estimated with Bayes' Rule using validation data to provide likelihood and normalization values. This estimator provides superior ECE and ACE calibration error compared to Softmax for ResNet-18 at 85% network accuracy, and EfficientNet-B0 at 95% network accuracy, on the CIFAR-10 dataset with an imbalanced test set, except for very high accuracy edge cases. In addition, when using the ACE metric, BACON demonstrated improved calibration error when estimating probabilities for the imbalanced test set when using actual class distribution fractions.

The past years have seen Large Language Models (LLMs) strive not only as generative models but also as agents solving textual sequential decision-making tasks. When facing complex environments where their zero-shot abilities are insufficient, recent work showed online Reinforcement Learning (RL) could be used for the LLM agent to discover and learn efficient strategies interactively. However, most prior work sticks to on-policy algorithms, which greatly reduces the scope of methods such agents could use for both exploration and exploitation, such as experience replay and hindsight relabeling. Yet, such methods may be key for LLM learning agents, and in particular when designing autonomous intrinsically motivated agents sampling and pursuing their own goals (i.e. autotelic agents). This paper presents and studies an adaptation of Soft Actor-Critic and hindsight relabeling to LLM agents. Our method not only paves the path towards autotelic LLM agents that learn online but can also outperform on-policy methods in more classic multi-goal RL environments.

The computational cost for inference and prediction of statistical models based on Gaussian processes with Mat\'ern covariance functions scales cubicly with the number of observations, limiting their applicability to large data sets. The cost can be reduced in certain special cases, but there are currently no generally applicable exact methods with linear cost. Several approximate methods have been introduced to reduce the cost, but most of these lack theoretical guarantees for the accuracy. We consider Gaussian processes on bounded intervals with Mat\'ern covariance functions and for the first time develop a generally applicable method with linear cost and with a covariance error that decreases exponentially fast in the order $m$ of the proposed approximation. The method is based on an optimal rational approximation of the spectral density and results in an approximation that can be represented as a sum of $m$ independent Gaussian Markov processes, which facilitates easy usage in general software for statistical inference, enabling its efficient implementation in general statistical inference software packages. Besides the theoretical justifications, we demonstrate the accuracy empirically through carefully designed simulation studies which show that the method outperforms all state-of-the-art alternatives in terms of accuracy for a fixed computational cost in statistical tasks such as Gaussian process regression.

Science is inherently inductive and thus involves uncertainties. They are commonly categorized as aleatoric uncertainty (AU), which refers to inherent variability, and epistemic uncertainty (EU), arising from limited information such as finite data or model assumptions (Hora, 1996). These uncertainties often overlap, as scientists may be epistemically uncertain about the aleatoric variation in their inquiry. Distinguishing and acknowledging them is crucial for the safe and trustworthy deployment of intelligent systems (Kendall and Gal, 2017; Hüllermeier and Waegeman, 2021), as they lead to different down-stream decisions. For example, experimental design aims to reduce EU (Nguyen et al., 2019; Chau et al., 2021b; Adachi et al., 2024), while risk management uses hedging strategy to address AU (Mashrur et al., 2020) While AU is often modelled using probability distributions, modelling EU--particularly in states of epistemic ignorance, also known as partial ignorance or incomplete knowledge (Dubois et al., 1996)--poses greater challenges. For instance, a scientist analysing insulin levels in Germany may have data from multiple hospitals, each representing aleatoric variation as a probability distribution. However, these distributions are merely proxies for the population-level insulin distribution, which is difficult to infer due to data collection limitations. A Bayesian approach could aggregate the data based on a prior if the representativeness of each source is known, but in many cases, scientists operate under partial ignorance, lacking such prior information (Bromberger, 1971). Assigning a uniform prior by following the principle of indifference (Keynes, 1921) and maximum entropy principle (Jaynes, 1957), or applying Jeffrey's prior by following the principle of transformation groups (Jaynes, 1968) only reflects indifference, not epistemic ignorance.