If sentiment analysis tools were valid classifiers, one would expect them to provide comparable results for sentiment classification on different kinds of corpora and for different languages. In line with results of previous studies we show that sentiment analysis tools disagree on the same dataset. Going beyond previous studies we show that the sentiment tool used for sentiment annotation can even be predicted from its outcome, revealing an algorithmic bias of sentiment analysis. Based on Twitter, Wikipedia and different news corpora from the English, German and French languages, our classifiers separate sentiment tools with an averaged F1-score of 0.89 (for the English corpora). We therefore warn against taking sentiment annotations as face value and argue for the need of more and systematic NLP evaluation studies.

Deep Reinforcement learning (DRL) is used to enable autonomous navigation in unknown environments. Most research assume perfect sensor data, but real-world environments may contain natural and artificial sensor noise and denial. Here, we present a benchmark of both well-used and emerging DRL algorithms in a navigation task with configurable sensor denial effects. In particular, we are interested in comparing how different DRL methods (e.g. model-free PPO vs. model-based DreamerV3) are affected by sensor denial. We show that DreamerV3 outperforms other methods in the visual end-to-end navigation task with a dynamic goal - and other methods are not able to learn this. Furthermore, DreamerV3 generally outperforms other methods in sensor-denied environments. In order to improve robustness, we use adversarial training and demonstrate an improved performance in denied environments, although this generally comes with a performance cost on the vanilla environments. We anticipate this benchmark of different DRL methods and the usage of adversarial training to be a starting point for the development of more elaborate navigation strategies that are capable of dealing with uncertain and denied sensor readings.

To support real-world decision-making, it is crucial for models to be well-calibrated, i.e., to assign reliable confidence estimates to their predictions. Uncertainty quantification is particularly important in personalized federated learning (PFL), as participating clients typically have small local datasets, making it difficult to unambiguously determine optimal model parameters. Bayesian PFL (BPFL) methods can potentially enhance calibration, but they often come with considerable computational and memory requirements due to the need to track the variances of all the individual model parameters. Furthermore, different clients may exhibit heterogeneous uncertainty levels owing to varying local dataset sizes and distributions. To address these challenges, we propose LR-BPFL, a novel BPFL method that learns a global deterministic model along with personalized low-rank Bayesian corrections. To tailor the local model to each client's inherent uncertainty level, LR-BPFL incorporates an adaptive rank selection mechanism. We evaluate LR-BPFL across a variety of datasets, demonstrating its advantages in terms of calibration, accuracy, as well as computational and memory requirements.

Differential privacy is the leading mathematical framework for privacy protection, providing a probabilistic guarantee that safeguards individuals' private information when publishing statistics from a dataset. This guarantee is achieved by applying a randomized algorithm to the original data, which introduces unique challenges in data analysis by distorting inherent patterns. In particular, causal inference using observational data in privacy-sensitive contexts is challenging because it requires covariate balance between treatment groups, yet checking the true covariates is prohibited to prevent leakage of sensitive information. In this article, we present a differentially private two-stage covariate balancing weighting estimator to infer causal effects from observational data. Our algorithm produces both point and interval estimators with statistical guarantees, such as consistency and rate optimality, under a given privacy budget.

Cryptocurrencies, as decentralized digital assets, have experienced rapid growth and adoption, with over 23,000 cryptocurrencies and a market capitalization nearing \$1.1 trillion (about \$3,400 per person in the US) as of 2023. This dynamic market presents significant opportunities and risks, highlighting the need for accurate price prediction models to manage volatility. This chapter comprehensively reviews machine learning (ML) techniques applied to cryptocurrency price prediction from 2014 to 2024. We explore various ML algorithms, including linear models, tree-based approaches, and advanced deep learning architectures such as transformers and large language models. Additionally, we examine the role of sentiment analysis in capturing market sentiment from textual data like social media posts and news articles to anticipate price fluctuations. With expertise in optimizing complex systems and processes, industrial engineers are pivotal in enhancing these models. They contribute by applying principles of process optimization, efficiency, and risk mitigation to improve computational performance and data management. This chapter highlights the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency price prediction, the integration of emerging technologies, and the significant role of industrial engineers in refining predictive models. By addressing current limitations and exploring future research directions, this chapter aims to advance the development of more accurate and robust prediction systems, supporting better-informed investment decisions and more stable market behavior.

Predictive maintenance of railway infrastructure, especially railroads, is essential to ensure safety. However, accurate prediction of crack evolution represents a major challenge due to the complex interactions between intrinsic and external factors, as well as measurement uncertainties. Effective modeling requires a multidimensional approach and a comprehensive understanding of these dynamics and uncertainties. Motivated by an industrial use case based on collected real data containing measured crack lengths, this paper introduces a robust Bayesian multi-horizon approach for predicting the temporal evolution of crack lengths on rails. This model captures the intricate interplay between various factors influencing crack growth. Additionally, the Bayesian approach quantifies both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties, providing a confidence interval around predictions. To enhance the model's reliability for railroad maintenance, specific constraints are incorporated. These constraints limit non-physical crack propagation behavior and prioritize safety. The findings reveal a trade-off between prediction accuracy and constraint compliance, highlighting the nuanced decision-making process in model training. This study offers insights into advanced predictive modeling for dynamic temporal forecasting, particularly in railway maintenance, with potential applications in other domains.

Vanilla variational inference finds an optimal approximation to the Bayesian posterior distribution, but even the exact Bayesian posterior is often not meaningful under model misspecification. We propose predictive variational inference (PVI): a general inference framework that seeks and samples from an optimal posterior density such that the resulting posterior predictive distribution is as close to the true data generating process as possible, while this this closeness is measured by multiple scoring rules. By optimizing the objective, the predictive variational inference is generally not the same as, or even attempting to approximate, the Bayesian posterior, even asymptotically. Rather, we interpret it as implicit hierarchical expansion. Further, the learned posterior uncertainty detects heterogeneity of parameters among the population, enabling automatic model diagnosis. This framework applies to both likelihood-exact and likelihood-free models. We demonstrate its application in real data examples.

Latent diffusion models have enabled continuous-state diffusion models to handle a variety of datasets, including categorical data. However, most methods rely on fixed pretrained embeddings, limiting the benefits of joint training with the diffusion model. While jointly learning the embedding (via reconstruction loss) and the latent diffusion model (via score matching loss) could enhance performance, our analysis shows that end-to-end training risks embedding collapse, degrading generation quality. To address this issue, we introduce CATDM, a continuous diffusion framework within the embedding space that stabilizes training. We propose a novel objective combining the joint embedding-diffusion variational lower bound with a Consistency-Matching (CM) regularizer, alongside a shifted cosine noise schedule and random dropping strategy. The CM regularizer ensures the recovery of the true data distribution. Experiments on benchmarks show that CATDM mitigates embedding collapse, yielding superior results on FFHQ, LSUN Churches, and LSUN Bedrooms. In particular, CATDM achieves an FID of 6.81 on ImageNet 256 256 with 50 steps. It outperforms non-autoregressive models in machine translation and is on a par with previous methods in text generation. These probabilistic models learn the inverse of a Markov chain that gradually converts data into pure Gaussian noise, using noise-conditioned score functions (i.e., gradients of log density), which are defined only for continuous data. The core concept is to progressively recover the original data distribution using a learned transition kernel. They offer stable and relatively efficient training procedures that contribute to their success. Recent advances, such as consistency models (Song et al., 2023; Kim et al., 2023; Luo et al., 2023), have further enhanced diffusion models by reducing the number of sampling steps, making them more practical for real-world applications.

Accurate uncertainty quantification for causal effects is essential for robust decision making in complex systems, but remains challenging in non-parametric settings. One promising framework represents conditional distributions in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space and places Gaussian process priors on them to infer posteriors on causal effects, but requires restrictive nuclear dominant kernels and approximations that lead to unreliable uncertainty estimates. In this work, we introduce a method, IMPspec, that addresses these limitations via a spectral representation of the Hilbert space. We show that posteriors in this model can be obtained explicitly, by extending a result in Hilbert space regression theory. We also learn the spectral representation to optimise posterior calibration. Our method achieves state-of-the-art performance in uncertainty quantification and causal Bayesian optimisation across simulations and a healthcare application.

Perturbation experiments allow biologists to discover causal relationships between variables of interest, but the sparsity and high dimensionality of these data pose significant challenges for causal structure learning algorithms. Biological knowledge graphs can bootstrap the inference of causal structures in these situations, but since they compile vastly diverse information, they can bias predictions towards well-studied systems. Alternatively, amortized causal structure learning algorithms encode inductive biases through data simulation and train supervised models to recapitulate these synthetic graphs. However, realistically simulating biology is arguably even harder than understanding a specific system. In this work, we take inspiration from both strategies and propose an amortized algorithm for refining domain knowledge, based on data observations. On real and synthetic datasets, we show that our approach outperforms baselines in recovering ground truth causal graphs and identifying errors in the prior knowledge with limited interventional data.