The sports betting industry has experienced rapid growth, driven largely by technological advancements and the proliferation of online platforms. Machine learning (ML) has played a pivotal role in the transformation of this sector by enabling more accurate predictions, dynamic odds-setting, and enhanced risk management for both bookmakers and bettors. This systematic review explores various ML techniques, including support vector machines, random forests, and neural networks, as applied in different sports such as soccer, basketball, tennis, and cricket. These models utilize historical data, in-game statistics, and real-time information to optimize betting strategies and identify value bets, ultimately improving profitability. For bookmakers, ML facilitates dynamic odds adjustment and effective risk management, while bettors leverage data-driven insights to exploit market inefficiencies. This review also underscores the role of ML in fraud detection, where anomaly detection models are used to identify suspicious betting patterns. Despite these advancements, challenges such as data quality, real-time decision-making, and the inherent unpredictability of sports outcomes remain. Ethical concerns related to transparency and fairness are also of significant importance. Future research should focus on developing adaptive models that integrate multimodal data and manage risk in a manner akin to financial portfolios. This review provides a comprehensive examination of the current applications of ML in sports betting, and highlights both the potential and the limitations of these technologies.

Abstract Recent advances in immunology and synthetic biology have accelerated the development of deep generative methods for DNA sequence design. Two dominant approaches in this field are AutoRegressive (AR) models and Diffusion Models (DMs). However, genomic sequences are functionally heterogeneous, consisting of multiple connected regions (e.g., Promoter Regions, Exons, and Introns) where elements within each region come from the same probability distribution, but the overall sequence is non-homogeneous. This heterogeneous nature presents challenges for a single model to accurately generate genomic sequences. In this paper, we analyze the properties of AR models and DMs in heterogeneous genomic sequence generation, pointing out crucial limitations in both methods: (i) AR models capture the underlying distribution of data by factorizing and learning the transition probability but fail to capture the global property of DNA sequences. (ii) DMs learn to recover the global distribution but tend to produce errors at the base pair level. To overcome the limitations of both approaches, we propose a post-training sampling method, termed Absorb & Escape (A&E) to perform compositional generation from AR models and DMs. This approach starts with samples generated by DMs and refines the sample quality using an AR model through the alternation of the Absorb and Escape steps. To assess the quality of generated sequences, we conduct extensive experiments on 15 species for conditional and unconditional DNA generation. The experiment results from motif distribution, diversity checks, and genome integration tests unequivocally show that A&E outperforms state-of-the-art AR models and DMs in genomic sequence generation.

There is growing research interest in measuring the statistical heterogeneity of clients' local datasets. Such measurements are used to estimate the suitability for collaborative training of personalized federated learning (PFL) models. Currently, these research endeavors are taking place in silos and there is a lack of a unified benchmark to provide a fair and convenient comparison among various approaches in common settings. We aim to bridge this important gap in this paper. The proposed benchmarking framework currently includes six representative approaches. Extensive experiments have been conducted to compare these approaches under five standard non-IID FL settings, providing much needed insights into which approaches are advantageous under which settings. The proposed framework offers useful guidance on the suitability of various data divergence measures in FL systems. It is beneficial for keeping related research activities on the right track in terms of: (i) designing PFL schemes, (ii) selecting appropriate data heterogeneity evaluation approaches for specific FL application scenarios, and (iii) addressing fairness issues in collaborative model training.

Gaussian Process Latent Variable Models (GPLVMs) have proven effective in capturing complex, high-dimensional data through lower-dimensional representations. Recent advances show that using Riemannian manifolds as latent spaces provides more flexibility to learn higher quality embeddings. This paper focuses on the hyperbolic manifold, a particularly suitable choice for modeling hierarchical relationships. While previous approaches relied on hyperbolic geodesics for interpolating the latent space, this often results in paths crossing low-data regions, leading to highly uncertain predictions. Instead, we propose augmenting the hyperbolic metric with a pullback metric to account for distortions introduced by the GPLVM's nonlinear mapping. Through various experiments, we demonstrate that geodesics on the pullback metric not only respect the geometry of the hyperbolic latent space but also align with the underlying data distribution, significantly reducing uncertainty in predictions.

In the current era of social media and generative AI, an ability to automatically assess the credibility of online social media content is of tremendous importance. Credibility assessment is fundamentally based on aggregating credibility signals, which refer to small units of information, such as content factuality, bias, or a presence of persuasion techniques, into an overall credibility score. Credibility signals provide a more granular, more easily explainable and widely utilizable information in contrast to currently predominant fake news detection, which utilizes various (mostly latent) features. A growing body of research on automatic credibility assessment and detection of credibility signals can be characterized as highly fragmented and lacking mutual interconnections. This issue is even more prominent due to a lack of an up-to-date overview of research works on automatic credibility assessment. In this survey, we provide such systematic and comprehensive literature review of 175 research papers while focusing on textual credibility signals and Natural Language Processing (NLP), which undergoes a significant advancement due to Large Language Models (LLMs). While positioning the NLP research into the context of other multidisciplinary research works, we tackle with approaches for credibility assessment as well as with 9 categories of credibility signals (we provide a thorough analysis for 3 of them, namely: 1) factuality, subjectivity and bias, 2) persuasion techniques and logical fallacies, and 3) claims and veracity). Following the description of the existing methods, datasets and tools, we identify future challenges and opportunities, while paying a specific attention to recent rapid development of generative AI.

Descriptions of the Galactic Center using Fermi gamma-ray data have so far modeled the Galactic Center Excess (GCE) as a template with fixed spatial morphology or as a linear combination of such templates. Although these templates are informed by various physical expectations, the morphology of the excess is a priori unknown. For the first time, we describe the GCE using a flexible, non-parametric machine learning model -- the Gaussian process (GP). We assess our model's performance on synthetic data, demonstrating that the model can recover the templates used to generate the data. We then fit the \Fermi data with our model in a single energy bin from 2-20 GeV (leaving a spectral GP analysis of the GCE for future work) using a variety of template models of diffuse gamma-ray emission to quantify our fits' systematic uncertainties associated with diffuse emission modeling. We interpret our best-fit GP in terms of GCE templates consisting of an NFW squared template and a bulge component to determine which bulge models can best describe the fitted GP and to what extent the best-fit GP is described better by an NFW squared template versus a bulge template. The best-fit GP contains morphological features that are typically not associated with traditional GCE studies. These include a localized bright source at around $(\ell,b) = (20^{\circ}, 0^{\circ})$ and a diagonal arm extending Northwest from the Galactic Center. In spite of these novel features, the fitted GP is explained best by a template-based model consisting of the bulge presented in Coleman et al. (2020) and a squared NFW component. Our results suggest that the physical interpretation of the GCE in terms of stellar bulge and NFW-like components is highly sensitive to the assumed morphologies, background models, and the region of the sky used for inference.

Nonlocal, integral operators have become an efficient surrogate for bottom-up homogenization, due to their ability to represent long-range dependence and multiscale effects. However, the nonlocal homogenized model has unavoidable discrepancy from the microscale model. Such errors accumulate and propagate in long-term simulations, making the resultant prediction unreliable. To develop a robust and reliable bottom-up homogenization framework, we propose a new framework, which we coin Embedded Nonlocal Operator Regression (ENOR), to learn a nonlocal homogenized surrogate model and its structural model error. This framework provides discrepancy-adaptive uncertainty quantification for homogenized material response predictions in long-term simulations. The method is built on Nonlocal Operator Regression (NOR), an optimization-based nonlocal kernel learning approach, together with an embedded model error term in the trainable kernel. Then, Bayesian inference is employed to infer the model error term parameters together with the kernel parameters. To make the problem computationally feasible, we use a multilevel delayed acceptance Markov chain Monte Carlo (MLDA-MCMC) method, enabling efficient Bayesian model calibration and model error estimation. We apply this technique to predict long-term wave propagation in a heterogeneous one-dimensional bar, and compare its performance with additive noise models. Owing to its ability to capture model error, the learned ENOR achieves improved estimation of posterior predictive uncertainty.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are powerful tools for text generation, translation, and summarization, but they often suffer from hallucinations-instances where they fail to maintain the fidelity and coherence of contextual information during decoding, sometimes overlooking critical details due to their sampling strategies and inherent biases from training data and fine-tuning discrepancies. These hallucinations can propagate through the web, affecting the trustworthiness of information disseminated online. To address this issue, we propose a novel decoding strategy that leverages absorbing Markov chains to quantify the significance of contextual information and measure the extent of information loss during generation. By considering all possible paths from the first to the last token, our approach enhances the reliability of model outputs without requiring additional training or external data. Evaluations on datasets including TruthfulQA, FACTOR, and HaluEval highlight the superior performance of our method in mitigating hallucinations, underscoring the necessity of ensuring accurate information flow in web-based applications.

Discovering the underlying Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) from time series observational data is highly challenging due to the dynamic nature and complex nonlinear interactions between variables. Existing methods often struggle with inefficiency and the handling of high-dimensional data. To address these research gap, we propose LOCAL, a highly efficient, easy-to-implement, and constraint-free method for recovering dynamic causal structures. LOCAL is the first attempt to formulate a quasi-maximum likelihood-based score function for learning the dynamic DAG equivalent to the ground truth. On this basis, we propose two adaptive modules for enhancing the algebraic characterization of acyclicity with new capabilities: Asymptotic Causal Mask Learning (ACML) and Dynamic Graph Parameter Learning (DGPL). ACML generates causal masks using learnable priority vectors and the Gumbel-Sigmoid function, ensuring the creation of DAGs while optimizing computational efficiency. DGPL transforms causal learning into decomposed matrix products, capturing the dynamic causal structure of high-dimensional data and enhancing interpretability. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that LOCAL significantly outperforms existing methods, and highlight LOCAL's potential as a robust and efficient method for dynamic causal discovery. Our code will be available soon.

Causal structure learning with data from multiple contexts carries both opportunities and challenges. Opportunities arise from considering shared and context-specific causal graphs enabling to generalize and transfer causal knowledge across contexts. However, a challenge that is currently understudied in the literature is the impact of differing observational support between contexts on the identifiability of causal graphs. Here we study in detail recently introduced [6] causal graph objects that capture both causal mechanisms and data support, allowing for the analysis of a larger class of context-specific changes, characterizing distribution shifts more precisely. We thereby extend results on the identifiability of context-specific causal structures and propose a framework to model context-specific independence (CSI) within structural causal models (SCMs) in a refined way that allows to explore scenarios where these graph objects differ. We demonstrate how this framework can help explaining phenomena like anomalies or extreme events, where causal mechanisms change or appear to change under different conditions. Our results contribute to the theoretical foundations for understanding causal relations in multi-context systems, with implications for generalization, transfer learning, and anomaly detection. Future work may extend this approach to more complex data types, such as time-series.