We study stochastic pairwise interaction network systems whereby a finite population of agents, identified with the nodes of a graph, update their states in response to both individual mutations and pairwise interactions with their neighbors. The considered class of systems include the main epidemic models -such as the SIS, SIR, and SIRS models-, certain social dynamics models -such as the voter and anti-voter models-, as well as evolutionary dynamics on graphs. Since these stochastic systems fall into the class of finite-state Markov chains, they always admit stationary distributions. We analyze the asymptotic behavior of these stationary distributions in the limit as the population size grows large while the interaction network maintains certain mixing properties. Our approach relies on the use of Lyapunov-type functions to obtain concentration results on these stationary distributions. Notably, our results are not limited to fully mixed population models, as they do apply to a much broader spectrum of interaction network structures, including, e.g., Erd\"oos-R\'enyi random graphs.

Sequential learning in deep models often suffers from challenges such as catastrophic forgetting and loss of plasticity, largely due to the permutation dependence of gradient-based algorithms, where the order of training data impacts the learning outcome. In this work, we introduce a novel permutation-invariant learning framework based on high-dimensional particle filters. We theoretically demonstrate that particle filters are invariant to the sequential ordering of training minibatches or tasks, offering a principled solution to mitigate catastrophic forgetting and loss-of-plasticity. We develop an efficient particle filter for optimizing high-dimensional models, combining the strengths of Bayesian methods with gradient-based optimization. Through extensive experiments on continual supervised and reinforcement learning benchmarks, including SplitMNIST, SplitCIFAR100, and ProcGen, we empirically show that our method consistently improves performance, while reducing variance compared to standard baselines.

Mobile health (mHealth) programs face a critical challenge in optimizing the timing of automated health information calls to beneficiaries. This challenge has been formulated as a collaborative multi-armed bandit problem, requiring online learning of a low-rank reward matrix. Existing solutions often rely on heuristic combinations of offline matrix completion and exploration strategies. In this work, we propose a principled Bayesian approach using Thompson Sampling for this collaborative bandit problem. Our method leverages prior information through efficient Gibbs sampling for posterior inference over the low-rank matrix factors, enabling faster convergence. We demonstrate significant improvements over state-of-the-art baselines on a real-world dataset from the world's largest maternal mHealth program. Our approach achieves a $16\%$ reduction in the number of calls compared to existing methods and a $47$\% reduction compared to the deployed random policy. This efficiency gain translates to a potential increase in program capacity by $0.5-1.4$ million beneficiaries, granting them access to vital ante-natal and post-natal care information. Furthermore, we observe a $7\%$ and $29\%$ improvement in beneficiary retention (an extremely hard metric to impact) compared to state-of-the-art and deployed baselines, respectively. Synthetic simulations further demonstrate the superiority of our approach, particularly in low-data regimes and in effectively utilizing prior information. We also provide a theoretical analysis of our algorithm in a special setting using Eluder dimension.

Recent advances in large language models have demonstrated promising capabilities in following simple instructions through instruction tuning. However, real-world tasks often involve complex, multi-step instructions that remain challenging for current NLP systems. Despite growing interest in this area, there lacks a comprehensive survey that systematically analyzes the landscape of complex instruction understanding and processing. Through a systematic review of the literature, we analyze available resources, representation schemes, and downstream tasks related to instructional text. Our study examines 177 papers, identifying trends, challenges, and opportunities in this emerging field. We provide AI/NLP researchers with essential background knowledge and a unified view of various approaches to complex instruction understanding, bridging gaps between different research directions and highlighting future research opportunities.

Disease progression models infer group-level temporal trajectories of change in patients' features as a chronic degenerative condition plays out. They provide unique insight into disease biology and staging systems with individual-level clinical utility. Discrete models consider disease progression as a latent permutation of events, where each event corresponds to a feature becoming measurably abnormal. However, permutation inference using traditional maximum likelihood approaches becomes prohibitive due to combinatoric explosion, severely limiting model dimensionality and utility. Here we leverage ideas from optimal transport to model disease progression as a latent permutation matrix of events belonging to the Birkhoff polytope, facilitating fast inference via optimisation of the variational lower bound. This enables a factor of 1000 times faster inference than the current state of the art and, correspondingly, supports models with several orders of magnitude more features than the current state of the art can consider. Experiments demonstrate the increase in speed, accuracy and robustness to noise in simulation. Further experiments with real-world imaging data from two separate datasets, one from Alzheimer's disease patients, the other age-related macular degeneration, showcase, for the first time, pixel-level disease progression events in the brain and eye, respectively. Our method is low compute, interpretable and applicable to any progressive condition and data modality, giving it broad potential clinical utility.

Interacting systems are prevalent in nature. It is challenging to accurately predict the dynamics of the system if its constituent components are analyzed independently. We develop a graph-based model that unveils the systemic interactions of time series observed at irregular time points, by using a directed acyclic graph to model the conditional dependencies (a form of causal notation) of the system components and learning this graph in tandem with a continuous-time model that parameterizes the solution curves of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Our technique, a graph neural flow, leads to substantial enhancements over non-graph-based methods, as well as graph-based methods without the modeling of conditional dependencies. We validate our approach on several tasks, including time series classification and forecasting, to demonstrate its efficacy.

Estimating the ground-state energy of Hamiltonians is a fundamental task for which it is believed that quantum computers can be helpful. Several approaches have been proposed toward this goal, including algorithms based on quantum phase estimation and hybrid quantum-classical optimizers involving parameterized quantum circuits, the latter falling under the umbrella of the variational quantum eigensolver. Here, we analyze the performance of quantum Boltzmann machines for this task, which is a less explored ansatz based on parameterized thermal states and which is not known to suffer from the barren-plateau problem. We delineate a hybrid quantum-classical algorithm for this task and rigorously prove that it converges to an $\varepsilon$-approximate stationary point of the energy function optimized over parameter space, while using a number of parameterized-thermal-state samples that is polynomial in $\varepsilon^{-1}$, the number of parameters, and the norm of the Hamiltonian being optimized. Our algorithm estimates the gradient of the energy function efficiently by means of a novel quantum circuit construction that combines classical sampling, Hamiltonian simulation, and the Hadamard test, thus overcoming a key obstacle to quantum Boltzmann machine learning that has been left open since [Amin et al., Phys. Rev. X 8, 021050 (2018)]. Additionally supporting our main claims are calculations of the gradient and Hessian of the energy function, as well as an upper bound on the matrix elements of the latter that is used in the convergence analysis.

The accurate modelling of structural dynamics is crucial across numerous engineering applications, such as Structural Health Monitoring (SHM), seismic analysis, and vibration control. Often, these models originate from physics-based principles and can be derived from corresponding governing equations, often of differential equation form. However, complex system characteristics, such as nonlinearities and energy dissipation mechanisms, often imply that such models are approximative and often imprecise. This challenge is further compounded in SHM, where sensor data is often sparse, making it difficult to fully observe the system's states. To address these issues, this paper explores the use of Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs), a class of physics-enhanced machine learning (PEML) techniques, for the identification and estimation of dynamical systems. PINNs offer a unique advantage by embedding known physical laws directly into the neural network's loss function, allowing for simple embedding of complex phenomena, even in the presence of uncertainties. This study specifically investigates three key applications of PINNs: state estimation in systems with sparse sensing, joint state-parameter estimation, when both system response and parameters are unknown, and parameter estimation within a Bayesian framework to quantify uncertainties. The results demonstrate that PINNs deliver an efficient tool across all aforementioned tasks, even in presence of modelling errors. However, these errors tend to have a more significant impact on parameter estimation, as the optimization process must reconcile discrepancies between the prescribed model and the true system behavior. Despite these challenges, PINNs show promise in dynamical system modeling, offering a robust approach to handling uncertainties.

Data increasingly take the form of a multi-way array, or tensor, in several biomedical domains. Such tensors are often incompletely observed. For example, we are motivated by longitudinal microbiome studies in which several timepoints are missing for several subjects. There is a growing literature on missing data imputation for tensors. However, existing methods give a point estimate for missing values without capturing uncertainty. We propose a multiple imputation approach for tensors in a flexible Bayesian framework, that yields realistic simulated values for missing entries and can propagate uncertainty through subsequent analyses. Our model uses efficient and widely applicable conjugate priors for a CANDECOMP/PARAFAC (CP) factorization, with a separable residual covariance structure. This approach is shown to perform well with respect to both imputation accuracy and uncertainty calibration, for scenarios in which either single entries or entire fibers of the tensor are missing. For two microbiome applications, it is shown to accurately capture uncertainty in the full microbiome profile at missing timepoints and used to infer trends in species diversity for the population. Documented R code to perform our multiple imputation approach is available at https://github.com/lockEF/MultiwayImputation .

BART Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) is a nonparametric Bayesian regression method, introduced by Chipman, George, and McCulloch (2006, 2010). It defines a prior distribution over the space of functions by representing them as a sum of binary decision trees, and then specifying a stochastic tree generation process. The posterior is then obtained with Metropolis-Gibbs sampling over the trees. See Hill, Linero, and Murray (2020) for a review, and Daniels, Linero, and Roy (2023, ch. 5) for a textbook treatment. BART's success BART has proven empirically effective, and is gaining popularity (consider, e.g., Tan and Roy 2019). The Atlantic Causal Inference Conference (ACIC) Data Challenge has confirmed BART as one of the best regression methods for causal inference (Dorie et al. 2019; Gruber et al. 2019; Hahn, Dorie, and Murray 2019; Thal and Finucane 2023). Many BART variants have been developed throughout the years, adding features such as variable selection (Linero 2018).