Learning Graphical Models
DM-SBL: Channel Estimation under Structured Interference
Wang, Yifan, Yu, Chengjie, Zhu, Jiang, Wang, Fangyong, Tu, Xingbin, Wei, Yan, Qu, Fengzhong
Channel estimation is a fundamental task in communication systems and is critical for effective demodulation. While most works deal with a simple scenario where the measurements are corrupted by the additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN), this work addresses the more challenging scenario where both AWGN and structured interference coexist. Such conditions arise, for example, when a sonar/radar transmitter and a communication receiver operate simultaneously within the same bandwidth. To ensure accurate channel estimation in these scenarios, the sparsity of the channel in the delay domain and the complicate structure of the interference are jointly exploited. Firstly, the score of the structured interference is learned via a neural network based on the diffusion model (DM), while the channel prior is modeled as a Gaussian distribution, with its variance controlling channel sparsity, similar to the setup of the sparse Bayesian learning (SBL). Then, two efficient posterior sampling methods are proposed to jointly estimate the sparse channel and the interference. Nuisance parameters, such as the variance of the prior are estimated via the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm. The proposed method is termed as DM based SBL (DM-SBL). Numerical simulations demonstrate that DM-SBL significantly outperforms conventional approaches that deal with the AWGN scenario, particularly under low signal-to-interference ratio (SIR) conditions. Beyond channel estimation, DM-SBL also shows promise for addressing other linear inverse problems involving structured interference.
Active Sequential Posterior Estimation for Sample-Efficient Simulation-Based Inference
Griesemer, Sam, Cao, Defu, Cui, Zijun, Osorio, Carolina, Liu, Yan
Computer simulations have long presented the exciting possibility of scientific insight into complex real-world processes. Despite the power of modern computing, however, it remains challenging to systematically perform inference under simulation models. This has led to the rise of simulation-based inference (SBI), a class of machine learning-enabled techniques for approaching inverse problems with stochastic simulators. Many such methods, however, require large numbers of simulation samples and face difficulty scaling to high-dimensional settings, often making inference prohibitive under resource-intensive simulators. To mitigate these drawbacks, we introduce active sequential neural posterior estimation (ASNPE). ASNPE brings an active learning scheme into the inference loop to estimate the utility of simulation parameter candidates to the underlying probabilistic model. The proposed acquisition scheme is easily integrated into existing posterior estimation pipelines, allowing for improved sample efficiency with low computational overhead. We further demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in the travel demand calibration setting, a high-dimensional inverse problem commonly requiring computationally expensive traffic simulators. Our method outperforms well-tuned benchmarks and state-of-the-art posterior estimation methods on a large-scale real-world traffic network, as well as demonstrates a performance advantage over non-active counterparts on a suite of SBI benchmark environments.
Efficient and Private Marginal Reconstruction with Local Non-Negativity
Mullins, Brett, Fuentes, Miguel, Xiao, Yingtai, Kifer, Daniel, Musco, Cameron, Sheldon, Daniel
Differential privacy is the dominant standard for formal and quantifiable privacy and has been used in major deployments that impact millions of people. Many differentially private algorithms for query release and synthetic data contain steps that reconstruct answers to queries from answers to other queries that have been measured privately. Reconstruction is an important subproblem for such mechanisms to economize the privacy budget, minimize error on reconstructed answers, and allow for scalability to high-dimensional datasets. In this paper, we introduce a principled and efficient postprocessing method ReM (Residuals-to-Marginals) for reconstructing answers to marginal queries. Our method builds on recent work on efficient mechanisms for marginal query release, based on making measurements using a residual query basis that admits efficient pseudoinversion, which is an important primitive used in reconstruction. An extension GReM-LNN (Gaussian Residuals-to-Marginals with Local Non-negativity) reconstructs marginals under Gaussian noise satisfying consistency and non-negativity, which often reduces error on reconstructed answers. We demonstrate the utility of ReM and GReM-LNN by applying them to improve existing private query answering mechanisms.
Proximal Iteration for Nonlinear Adaptive Lasso
Wycoff, Nathan, Singh, Lisa O., Arab, Ali, Donato, Katharine M.
Augmenting a smooth cost function with an $\ell_1$ penalty allows analysts to efficiently conduct estimation and variable selection simultaneously in sophisticated models and can be efficiently implemented using proximal gradient methods. However, one drawback of the $\ell_1$ penalty is bias: nonzero parameters are underestimated in magnitude, motivating techniques such as the Adaptive Lasso which endow each parameter with its own penalty coefficient. But it's not clear how these parameter-specific penalties should be set in complex models. In this article, we study the approach of treating the penalty coefficients as additional decision variables to be learned in a \textit{Maximum a Posteriori} manner, developing a proximal gradient approach to joint optimization of these together with the parameters of any differentiable cost function. Beyond reducing bias in estimates, this procedure can also encourage arbitrary sparsity structure via a prior on the penalty coefficients. We compare our method to implementations of specific sparsity structures for non-Gaussian regression on synthetic and real datasets, finding our more general method to be competitive in terms of both speed and accuracy. We then consider nonlinear models for two case studies: COVID-19 vaccination behavior and international refugee movement, highlighting the applicability of this approach to complex problems and intricate sparsity structures.
Two-way Deconfounder for Off-policy Evaluation in Causal Reinforcement Learning
Yu, Shuguang, Fang, Shuxing, Peng, Ruixin, Qi, Zhengling, Zhou, Fan, Shi, Chengchun
Inspired by the two-way fixed effects regression model widely used in the panel data literature, we propose a two-way unmeasured confounding assumption to model the system dynamics in causal reinforcement learning and develop a two-way deconfounder algorithm that devises a neural tensor network to simultaneously learn both the unmeasured confounders and the system dynamics, based on which a model-based estimator can be constructed for consistent policy value estimation. We illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed estimator through theoretical results and numerical experiments.
Strategizing Equitable Transit Evacuations: A Data-Driven Reinforcement Learning Approach
Tang, Fang, Wang, Han, Monache, Maria Laura Delle
As natural disasters become increasingly frequent, the need for efficient and equitable evacuation planning has become more critical. This paper proposes a data-driven, reinforcement learning-based framework to optimize bus-based evacuations with an emphasis on improving both efficiency and equity. We model the evacuation problem as a Markov Decision Process solved by reinforcement learning, using real-time transit data from General Transit Feed Specification and transportation networks extracted from OpenStreetMap. The reinforcement learning agent dynamically reroutes buses from their scheduled location to minimize total passengers' evacuation time while prioritizing equity-priority communities. Simulations on the San Francisco Bay Area transportation network indicate that the proposed framework achieves significant improvements in both evacuation efficiency and equitable service distribution compared to traditional rule-based and random strategies. These results highlight the potential of reinforcement learning to enhance system performance and urban resilience during emergency evacuations, offering a scalable solution for real-world applications in intelligent transportation systems.
Estimating the treatment effect over time under general interference through deep learner integrated TMLE
Guo, Suhan, Shen, Furao, Li, Ni
Understanding the effects of quarantine policies in populations with underlying social networks is crucial for public health, yet most causal inference methods fail here due to their assumption of independent individuals. We introduce DeepNetTMLE, a deep-learning-enhanced Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (TMLE) method designed to estimate time-sensitive treatment effects in observational data. DeepNetTMLE mitigates bias from time-varying confounders under general interference by incorporating a temporal module and domain adversarial training to build intervention-invariant representations. This process removes associations between current treatments and historical variables, while the targeting step maintains the bias-variance trade-off, enhancing the reliability of counterfactual predictions. Using simulations of a ``Susceptible-Infected-Recovered'' model with varied quarantine coverages, we show that DeepNetTMLE achieves lower bias and more precise confidence intervals in counterfactual estimates, enabling optimal quarantine recommendations within budget constraints, surpassing state-of-the-art methods.
A Compositional Atlas for Algebraic Circuits
Wang, Benjie, Mauá, Denis Deratani, Broeck, Guy Van den, Choi, YooJung
Circuits based on sum-product structure have become a ubiquitous representation to compactly encode knowledge, from Boolean functions to probability distributions. By imposing constraints on the structure of such circuits, certain inference queries become tractable, such as model counting and most probable configuration. Recent works have explored analyzing probabilistic and causal inference queries as compositions of basic operators to derive tractability conditions. In this paper, we take an algebraic perspective for compositional inference, and show that a large class of queries - including marginal MAP, probabilistic answer set programming inference, and causal backdoor adjustment - correspond to a combination of basic operators over semirings: aggregation, product, and elementwise mapping. Using this framework, we uncover simple and general sufficient conditions for tractable composition of these operators, in terms of circuit properties (e.g., marginal determinism, compatibility) and conditions on the elementwise mappings. Applying our analysis, we derive novel tractability conditions for many such compositional queries. Our results unify tractability conditions for existing problems on circuits, while providing a blueprint for analysing novel compositional inference queries.
A Machine Learning Algorithm for Finite-Horizon Stochastic Control Problems in Economics
Peng, Xianhua, Kou, Steven, Zhang, Lekang
We propose a machine learning algorithm for solving finite-horizon stochastic control problems based on a deep neural network representation of the optimal policy functions. The algorithm has three features: (1) It can solve high-dimensional (e.g., over 100 dimensions) and finite-horizon time-inhomogeneous stochastic control problems. (2) It has a monotonicity of performance improvement in each iteration, leading to good convergence properties. (3) It does not rely on the Bellman equation. To demonstrate the efficiency of the algorithm, it is applied to solve various finite-horizon time-inhomogeneous problems including recursive utility optimization under a stochastic volatility model, a multi-sector stochastic growth, and optimal control under a dynamic stochastic integration of climate and economy model with eight-dimensional state vectors and 600 time periods.