Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a critical aspect of artificial intelligence (AI) systems, particularly in high-risk domains such as healthcare, autonomous systems, and financial technology, where decision-making processes must account for uncertainty. This review explores the evolution of uncertainty quantification techniques in AI, distinguishing between aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties, and discusses the mathematical foundations and methods used to quantify these uncertainties. We provide an overview of advanced techniques, including probabilistic methods, ensemble learning, sampling-based approaches, and generative models, while also highlighting hybrid approaches that integrate domain-specific knowledge. Furthermore, we examine the diverse applications of UQ across various fields, emphasizing its impact on decision-making, predictive accuracy, and system robustness. The review also addresses key challenges such as scalability, efficiency, and integration with explainable AI, and outlines future directions for research in this rapidly developing area. Through this comprehensive survey, we aim to provide a deeper understanding of UQ's role in enhancing the reliability, safety, and trustworthiness of AI systems.

Trajectory generation has garnered significant attention from researchers in the field of spatio-temporal analysis, as it can generate substantial synthesized human mobility trajectories that enhance user privacy and alleviate data scarcity. However, existing trajectory generation methods often focus on improving trajectory generation quality from a singular perspective, lacking a comprehensive semantic understanding across various scales. Consequently, we are inspired to develop a HOlistic SEmantic Representation (HOSER) framework for navigational trajectory generation. Given an origin-and-destination (OD) pair and the starting time point of a latent trajectory, we first propose a Road Network Encoder to expand the receptive field of road- and zone-level semantics. Second, we design a Multi-Granularity Trajectory Encoder to integrate the spatio-temporal semantics of the generated trajectory at both the point and trajectory levels. Finally, we employ a Destination-Oriented Navigator to seamlessly integrate destination-oriented guidance. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets demonstrate that HOSER outperforms state-of-the-art baselines by a significant margin. Moreover, the model's performance in few-shot learning and zero-shot learning scenarios further verifies the effectiveness of our holistic semantic representation.

This paper presents a decentralized, online planning approach for scalable maneuver planning for large constellations. While decentralized, rule-based strategies have facilitated efficient scaling, optimal decision-making algorithms for satellite maneuvers remain underexplored. As commercial satellite constellations grow, there are benefits of online maneuver planning, such as using real-time trajectory predictions to improve state knowledge, thereby reducing maneuver frequency and conserving fuel. We address this gap in the research by treating the satellite maneuver planning problem as a Markov decision process (MDP). This approach enables the generation of optimal maneuver policies online with low computational cost. This formulation is applied to the low Earth orbit collision avoidance problem, considering the problem of an active spacecraft deciding to maneuver to avoid a non-maneuverable object. We test the policies we generate in a simulated low Earth orbit environment, and compare the results to traditional rule-based collision avoidance techniques.

Information can be expressed in multiple formats including natural language, images, and motions. Human intelligence usually faces little difficulty to convert from one format to another format, which often shows a true understanding of encoded information. Moreover, such conversions have broad application in many real-world applications. In this paper, we present a text visualization system that can visualize free text with animations. Our system is illustrated by visualizing example sentences of elementary Physics laws.

Humans rely on high-level meta-representations to engage in abstract reasoning. In complex cognitive tasks, these meta-representations help individuals abstract general rules from experience. However, constructing such meta-representations from high-dimensional observations remains a longstanding challenge for reinforcement learning agents. For instance, a well-trained agent often fails to generalize to even minor variations of the same task, such as changes in background color, while humans can easily handle. In this paper, we build a bridge between meta-representation and generalization, showing that generalization performance benefits from meta-representation learning. We also hypothesize that deep mutual learning (DML) among agents can help them converge to meta-representations. Empirical results provide support for our theory and hypothesis. Overall, this work provides a new perspective on the generalization of deep reinforcement learning.

Spatial-temporal data collected across different geographic locations often suffer from missing values, posing challenges to data analysis. Existing methods primarily leverage fixed spatial graphs to impute missing values, which implicitly assume that the spatial relationship is roughly the same for all features across different locations. However, they may overlook the different spatial relationships of diverse features recorded by sensors in different locations. To address this, we introduce the multi-scale Graph Structure Learning framework for spatial-temporal Imputation (GSLI) that dynamically adapts to the heterogeneous spatial correlations. Our framework encompasses node-scale graph structure learning to cater to the distinct global spatial correlations of different features, and feature-scale graph structure learning to unveil common spatial correlation across features within all stations. Integrated with prominence modeling, our framework emphasizes nodes and features with greater significance in the imputation process. Furthermore, GSLI incorporates cross-feature and cross-temporal representation learning to capture spatial-temporal dependencies. Evaluated on six real incomplete spatial-temporal datasets, GSLI showcases the improvement in data imputation.

Reinforcement learning (RL) enables an agent interacting with an unknown MDP $M$ to optimise its behaviour by observing transitions sampled from $M$. A natural entity that emerges in the agent's reasoning is $\widehat{M}$, the maximum likelihood estimate of $M$ based on the observed transitions. The well-known \textit{certainty-equivalence} method (CEM) dictates that the agent update its behaviour to $\widehat{\pi}$, which is an optimal policy for $\widehat{M}$. Not only is CEM intuitive, it has been shown to enjoy minimax-optimal sample complexity in some regions of the parameter space for PAC RL with a generative model~\citep{Agarwal2020GenModel}. A seemingly unrelated algorithm is the ``trajectory tree method'' (TTM)~\citep{Kearns+MN:1999}, originally developed for efficient decision-time planning in large POMDPs. This paper presents a theoretical investigation that stems from the surprising finding that CEM may indeed be viewed as an application of TTM. The qualitative benefits of this view are (1) new and simple proofs of sample complexity upper bounds for CEM, in fact under a (2) weaker assumption on the rewards than is prevalent in the current literature. Our analysis applies to both non-stationary and stationary MDPs. Quantitatively, we obtain (3) improvements in the sample-complexity upper bounds for CEM both for non-stationary and stationary MDPs, in the regime that the ``mistake probability'' $\delta$ is small. Additionally, we show (4) a lower bound on the sample complexity for finite-horizon MDPs, which establishes the minimax-optimality of our upper bound for non-stationary MDPs in the small-$\delta$ regime.

Transformers (Vaswani et al. 2017) have achieved tremendous success across various fields. These models are known to be particularly strong in terms of sequence generation, and have revolutionized the way we approach problems related to text generation, translation, and scientific discoveries such as protein generation. Despite these achievements, there remains limited understanding of the theoretical capabilities of transformers as sequence generators. To theoretically understand how transformers efficiently generate sequences, several recent works have studied the the power of transformers in learning specific probability models for sequential data (Ildiz et al. 2024, Rajaraman et al. 2024, Makkuva et al. 2024, Nichani et al. 2024). Specifically, Ildiz et al. (2024) studied the problem of learning Markov chains with a one-layer self-attention model, and developed identifiability and convergence guarantees under certain conditions. Rajaraman et al. (2024) studied the behavior of transformers on data drawn from k-order Markov processes, where the conditional distribution of the next variable in a sequence depends on the previous k variables, and showed that such processes can be learned well by transformers of a constant-order depth. Makkuva et al. (2024) further studied the loss function landscape of one-layer transformers in learning Markov chains. Nichani et al. (2024) studied a setting where the tokens consist of multiple sequences of samples generated from a causal network, and demonstrated that transformers can be trained to learn the causal network structure so that, when seeing a new context-query pair, it can generate prediction according to the learned causal structure and the context. However, similar to the studies of Markov chains, Nichani et al. (2024) mostly focused on the setting where each variable has at most one parent.

A common task arising in various domains is that of ranking items based on the outcomes of pairwise comparisons, from ranking players and teams in sports to ranking products or brands in marketing studies and recommendation systems. Statistical inference-based methods such as the Bradley-Terry model, which extract rankings based on an underlying generative model of the comparison outcomes, have emerged as flexible and powerful tools to tackle the task of ranking in empirical data. In situations with limited and/or noisy comparisons, it is often challenging to confidently distinguish the performance of different items based on the evidence available in the data. However, existing inference-based ranking methods overwhelmingly choose to assign each item to a unique rank or score, suggesting a meaningful distinction when there is none. Here, we address this problem by developing a principled Bayesian methodology for learning partial rankings -- rankings with ties -- that distinguishes among the ranks of different items only when there is sufficient evidence available in the data. Our framework is adaptable to any statistical ranking method in which the outcomes of pairwise observations depend on the ranks or scores of the items being compared. We develop a fast agglomerative algorithm to perform Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) inference of partial rankings under our framework and examine the performance of our method on a variety of real and synthetic network datasets, finding that it frequently gives a more parsimonious summary of the data than traditional ranking, particularly when observations are sparse.

Distributionally robust offline reinforcement learning (RL) aims to find a policy that performs the best under the worst environment within an uncertainty set using an offline dataset collected from a nominal model. While recent advances in robust RL focus on Markov decision processes (MDPs), robust non-Markovian RL is limited to planning problem where the transitions in the uncertainty set are known. In this paper, we study the learning problem of robust offline non-Markovian RL. Specifically, when the nominal model admits a low-rank structure, we propose a new algorithm, featuring a novel dataset distillation and a lower confidence bound (LCB) design for robust values under different types of the uncertainty set. We also derive new dual forms for these robust values in non-Markovian RL, making our algorithm more amenable to practical implementation. By further introducing a novel type-I concentrability coefficient tailored for offline low-rank non-Markovian decision processes, we prove that our algorithm can find an $\epsilon$-optimal robust policy using $O(1/\epsilon^2)$ offline samples. Moreover, we extend our algorithm to the case when the nominal model does not have specific structure. With a new type-II concentrability coefficient, the extended algorithm also enjoys polynomial sample efficiency under all different types of the uncertainty set.