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 Learning Graphical Models


Interact, Instruct to Improve: A LLM-Driven Parallel Actor-Reasoner Framework for Enhancing Autonomous Vehicle Interactions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) have entered the commercialization stage, but their limited ability to interact and express intentions still poses challenges in interactions with Human-driven Vehicles (HVs). Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) enable bidirectional human-machine communication, but the conflict between slow inference speed and the need for real-time decision-making challenges practical deployment. To address these issues, this paper introduces a parallel Actor-Reasoner framework designed to enable explicit bidirectional AV-HV interactions across multiple scenarios. First, by facilitating interactions between the LLM-driven Reasoner and heterogeneous simulated HVs during training, an interaction memory database, referred to as the Actor, is established. Then, by introducing the memory partition module and the two-layer memory retrieval module, the Actor's ability to handle heterogeneous HVs is significantly enhanced. Ablation studies and comparisons with other decision-making methods demonstrate that the proposed Actor-Reasoner framework significantly improves safety and efficiency. Finally, with the combination of the external Human-Machine Interface (eHMI) information derived from Reasoner's reasoning and the feasible action solutions retrieved from the Actor, the effectiveness of the proposed Actor-Reasoner is confirmed in multi-scenario field interactions. Our code is available at https://github.com/FanGShiYuu/Actor-Reasoner.


Nucleolus Credit Assignment for Effective Coalitions in Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL), agents typically form a single grand coalition based on credit assignment to tackle a composite task, often resulting in suboptimal performance. This paper proposed a nucleolus-based credit assignment grounded in cooperative game theory, enabling the autonomous partitioning of agents into multiple small coalitions that can effectively identify and complete subtasks within a larger composite task. Specifically, our designed nucleolus Q-learning could assign fair credits to each agent, and the nucleolus Q-operator provides theoretical guarantees with interpretability for both learning convergence and the stability of the formed small coalitions. Through experiments on Predator-Prey and StarCraft scenarios across varying difficulty levels, our approach demonstrated the emergence of multiple effective coalitions during MARL training, leading to faster learning and superior performance in terms of win rate and cumulative rewards especially in hard and super-hard environments, compared to four baseline methods. Our nucleolus-based credit assignment showed the promise for complex composite tasks requiring effective subteams of agents.


Towards Hierarchical Rectified Flow

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Published as a conference paper at ICLR 2025T OWARDSH IERARCHICAL R ECTIFIED F LOW Yichi Zhang 1, Yici Y an 1, Alex Schwing 1, Zhizhen Zhao 1 1 University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign A BSTRACT We formulate a hierarchical rectified flow to model data distributions. It hierarchically couples multiple ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and defines a time-differentiable stochastic process that generates a data distribution from a known source distribution. Each ODE resembles the ODE that is solved in a classic rectified flow, but differs in its domain, i.e., location, velocity, acceleration, etc. Unlike the classic rectified flow formulation, which formulates a single ODE in the location domain and only captures the expected velocity field (sufficient to capture a multi-modal data distribution), the hierarchical rectified flow formulation models the multi-modal random velocity field, acceleration field, etc., in their entirety. This more faithful modeling of the random velocity field enables integration paths to intersect when the underlying ODE is solved during data generation. Intersecting paths in turn lead to integration trajectories that are more straight than those obtained in the classic rectified flow formulation, where integration paths cannot intersect. This leads to modeling of data distributions with fewer neural function evaluations. We empirically verify this on synthetic 1D and 2D data as well as MNIST, CIFAR-10, and ImageNet-32 data. Our code is available at: https://riccizz.github.io/HRF/ . 1 I NTRODUCTION Diffusion models (Ho et al., 2020; Song et al., 2021a;b) and particularly also flow matching (Liu et al., 2023; Lipman et al., 2023; Albergo & V anden-Eijnden, 2023; Albergo et al., 2023) have gained significant attention recently. This is partly due to impressive results that have been reported across domains from computer vision (Ho et al., 2020) and medical imaging (Song et al., 2022) to robotics (Kapelyukh et al., 2023) and computational biology (Guo et al., 2024). Beyond impressive results, flow matching was also reported to faithfully model multimodal data distributions. In addition, sampling is reasonably straightforward: it requires to solve an ordinary differential equation (ODE) via forward integration of a set of source distribution points along an estimated velocity field from time zero to time one. The source distribution points are sampled from a simple and known source distribution, e.g., a standard Gaussian. The velocity field is obtained by matching velocities from a constructed "ground-truth" integration path with a parametric deep net using a mean squared error (MSE) objective. See Figure 1(a) for the "ground-truth" integration paths of classic rectified flow. Studying the "ground-truth" velocity distribution at a distinct location and time for rectified flow reveals a multimodal distribution.


Parameter Expanded Stochastic Gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) provide a promising framework for modeling predictive uncertainty and enhancing out-of-distribution robustness (OOD) by estimating the posterior distribution of network parameters. Stochastic Gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC) is one of the most powerful methods for scalable posterior sampling in BNNs, achieving efficiency by combining stochastic gradient descent with second-order Langevin dynamics. However, SGMCMC often suffers from limited sample diversity in practice, which affects uncertainty estimation and model performance. We propose a simple yet effective approach to enhance sample diversity in SGMCMC without the need for tempering or running multiple chains. Our approach reparameterizes the neural network by decomposing each of its weight matrices into a product of matrices, resulting in a sampling trajectory that better explores the target parameter space. This approach produces a more diverse set of samples, allowing faster mixing within the same computational budget. Notably, our sampler achieves these improvements without increasing the inference cost compared to the standard SGMCMC. Extensive experiments on image classification tasks, including OOD robustness, diversity, loss surface analyses, and a comparative study with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, demonstrate the superiority of the proposed approach.


The Uncertainty of Machine Learning Predictions in Asset Pricing

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Recently, machine learning (ML) models have gained prominence in predicting asset returns, selecting portfolios, and estimating stochastic discount factors, with significant success in these areas. ML techniques, by capturing complex and nonlinear relationships in financial data, are particularly well-suited for enhancing portfolio management decisions. For example, within the mean-variance portfolio framework, ML methods are increasingly used to estimate expected returns and (co)variances, often leading to more effective portfolio allocations. The literature consistently demonstrates the effectiveness of machine learning in these and other applications (e.g., Gu, Kelly, and Xiu (2020); Bianchi, B uchner, and Tamoni (2021); Cong, Tang, Wang, and Zhang (2021); Kelly, Malamud, and Zhou (2021); Patton and Weller (2022); Didisheim, Ke, Kelly, and Malamud (2023); Filipovic and Schneider (2024)). Despite the success of machine learning in asset pricing, existing literature typically treats ML predictions as point estimates and conducts asset pricing analyses as if they were true values, overlooking the associated uncertainty. This is surprising, given that uncertainty about input parameters is widely acknowledged as critical in portfolio selection (e.g., DeMiguel, Garlappi, and Uppal (2009)), and Garlappi, Uppal, and Wang (2007) show that incorporating forecast uncertainty in mean-variance portfolio allocation leads to distinct economic insights. However, quantifying prediction uncertainty in ML forecasts, particularly with neural networks, remains a complex challenge, limiting their broader application in asset pricing.


Trajectory Inference with Smooth Schr\"odinger Bridges

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Motivated by applications in trajectory inference and particle tracking, we introduce Smooth Schr\"odinger Bridges. Our proposal generalizes prior work by allowing the reference process in the Schr\"odinger Bridge problem to be a smooth Gaussian process, leading to more regular and interpretable trajectories in applications. Though na\"ively smoothing the reference process leads to a computationally intractable problem, we identify a class of processes (including the Mat\'ern processes) for which the resulting Smooth Schr\"odinger Bridge problem can be lifted to a simpler problem on phase space, which can be solved in polynomial time. We develop a practical approximation of this algorithm that outperforms existing methods on numerous simulated and real single-cell RNAseq datasets. The code can be found at https://github.com/WanliHongC/Smooth_SB


Evidence of Replica Symmetry Breaking under the Nishimori conditions in epidemic inference on graphs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In Bayesian inference, computing the posterior distribution from the data is typically a non-trivial problem, which usually requires approximations such as mean-field approaches or numerical methods, like the Monte Carlo Markov Chain. Being a high-dimensional distribution over a set of correlated variables, the posterior distribution can undergo the notorious replica symmetry breaking transition. When it happens, several mean-field methods and virtually every Monte Carlo scheme can not provide a reasonable approximation to the posterior and its marginals. Replica symmetry is believed to be guaranteed whenever the data is generated with known prior and likelihood distributions, namely under the so-called Nishimori conditions. In this paper, we break this belief, by providing a counter-example showing that, under the Nishimori conditions, replica symmetry breaking arises. Introducing a simple, geometrical model that can be thought of as a patient zero retrieval problem in a highly infectious regime of the epidemic Susceptible-Infectious model, we show that under the Nishimori conditions, there is evidence of replica symmetry breaking. We achieve this result by computing the instability of the replica symmetric cavity method toward the one step replica symmetry broken phase. The origin of this phenomenon -- replica symmetry breaking under the Nishimori conditions -- is likely due to the correlated disorder appearing in the epidemic models.


SafeAuto: Knowledge-Enhanced Safe Autonomous Driving with Multimodal Foundation Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Traditional autonomous driving systems often struggle to integrate high-level reasoning with low-level control, resulting in suboptimal and sometimes unsafe driving behaviors. The emergence of Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs), which can process both visual and textual data, presents an opportunity to unify perception and reasoning tasks within a single framework. However, effectively embedding precise safety knowledge into MLLMs for autonomous driving remains a significant challenge. To address this, we propose SafeAuto, a novel framework that enhances MLLM-based autonomous driving systems by incorporating both unstructured and structured knowledge. Specifically, we first introduce the Position-Dependent Cross-Entropy (PDCE) loss function, designed to improve the accuracy of low-level control signal predictions when numerical values are represented as text. Second, to ensure safe autonomous driving by explicitly integrating precise safety knowledge into the MLLM, we develop a reasoning component for SafeAuto. This component translates driving safety regulations into first-order logic rules (e.g., "red light => stop") and incorporates these rules into a probabilistic graphical model, such as a Markov Logic Network (MLN). The MLN is trained to verify the predicted next actions using environmental attributes identified by attribute recognition models (e.g., detecting a red light) to form the predicates. Additionally, we construct a Multimodal RAG model that leverages video data, control signals, and environmental attributes to learn more effectively from past similar driving experiences. By integrating PDCE, MLN, and Multimodal RAG, SafeAuto significantly outperforms existing baselines across multiple datasets. This advancement enables more accurate, reliable, and safer autonomous driving systems that learn from experience, obey traffic laws, and perform precise control actions.


A Survey of Link Prediction in Temporal Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Temporal networks have gained significant prominence in the past decade for modelling dynamic interactions within complex systems. A key challenge in this domain is Temporal Link Prediction (TLP), which aims to forecast future connections by analysing historical network structures across various applications including social network analysis. While existing surveys have addressed specific aspects of TLP, they typically lack a comprehensive framework that distinguishes between representation and inference methods. This survey bridges this gap by introducing a novel taxonomy that explicitly examines representation and inference from existing methods, providing a novel classification of approaches for TLP. We analyse how different representation techniques capture temporal and structural dynamics, examining their compatibility with various inference methods for both transductive and inductive prediction tasks. Our taxonomy not only clarifies the methodological landscape but also reveals promising unexplored combinations of existing techniques. This taxonomy provides a systematic foundation for emerging challenges in TLP, including model explainability and scalable architectures for complex temporal networks.


Human-AI Collaboration: Trade-offs Between Performance and Preferences

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Despite the growing interest in collaborative AI, designing systems that seamlessly integrate human input remains a major challenge. In this study, we developed a task to systematically examine human preferences for collaborative agents. We created and evaluated five collaborative AI agents with strategies that differ in the manner and degree they adapt to human actions. Participants interacted with a subset of these agents, evaluated their perceived traits, and selected their preferred agent. We used a Bayesian model to understand how agents' strategies influence the Human-AI team performance, AI's perceived traits, and the factors shaping human-preferences in pairwise agent comparisons. Our results show that agents who are more considerate of human actions are preferred over purely performance-maximizing agents. Moreover, we show that such human-centric design can improve the likability of AI collaborators without reducing performance. We find evidence for inequality-aversion effects being a driver of human choices, suggesting that people prefer collaborative agents which allow them to meaningfully contribute to the team. Taken together, these findings demonstrate how collaboration with AI can benefit from development efforts which include both subjective and objective metrics.