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 Learning Graphical Models


Active Multimodal Distillation for Few-shot Action Recognition

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Owing to its rapid progress and broad application prospects, few-shot action recognition has attracted considerable interest. However, current methods are predominantly based on limited single-modal data, which does not fully exploit the potential of multimodal information. This paper presents a novel framework that actively identifies reliable modalities for each sample using task-specific contextual cues, thus significantly improving recognition performance. Our framework integrates an Active Sample Inference (ASI) module, which utilizes active inference to predict reliable modalities based on posterior distributions and subsequently organizes them accordingly. Unlike reinforcement learning, active inference replaces rewards with evidence-based preferences, making more stable predictions. Additionally, we introduce an active mutual distillation module that enhances the representation learning of less reliable modalities by transferring knowledge from more reliable ones. Adaptive multimodal inference is employed during the meta-test to assign higher weights to reliable modalities. Extensive experiments across multiple benchmarks demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms existing approaches.


Dynamic Reinsurance Treaty Bidding via Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper develops a novel multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) framework for reinsurance treaty bidding, addressing long-standing inefficiencies in traditional broker-mediated placement processes. We pose the core research question: Can autonomous, learning-based bidding systems improve risk transfer efficiency and outperform conventional pricing approaches in reinsurance markets? In our model, each reinsurer is represented by an adaptive agent that iteratively refines its bidding strategy within a competitive, partially observable environment. The simulation explicitly incorporates institutional frictions including broker intermediation, incumbent advantages, last-look privileges, and asymmetric access to underwriting information. Empirical analysis demonstrates that MARL agents achieve up to 15% higher underwriting profit, 20% lower tail risk (CVaR), and over 25% improvement in Sharpe ratios relative to actuarial and heuristic baselines. Sensitivity tests confirm robustness across hyperparameter settings, and stress testing reveals strong resilience under simulated catastrophe shocks and capital constraints. These findings suggest that MARL offers a viable path toward more transparent, adaptive, and risk-sensitive reinsurance markets. The proposed framework contributes to emerging literature at the intersection of algorithmic market design, strategic bidding, and AI-enabled financial decision-making.


Intra-Trajectory Consistency for Reward Modeling

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Reward models are critical for improving large language models (LLMs), particularly in reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) or inference-time verification. Current reward modeling typically relies on scores of overall responses to learn the outcome rewards for the responses. However, since the response-level scores are coarse-grained supervision signals, the reward model struggles to identify the specific components within a response trajectory that truly correlate with the scores, leading to poor generalization on unseen responses. In this paper, we propose to leverage generation probabilities to establish reward consistency between processes in the response trajectory, which allows the response-level supervisory signal to propagate across processes, thereby providing additional fine-grained signals for reward learning. Building on analysis under the Bayesian framework, we develop an intra-trajectory consistency regularization to enforce that adjacent processes with higher next-token generation probability maintain more consistent rewards. We apply the proposed regularization to the advanced outcome reward model, improving its performance on RewardBench. Besides, we show that the reward model trained with the proposed regularization induces better DPO-aligned policies and achieves better best-of-N (BON) inference-time verification results. Our code is provided in https://github.com/chaoyang101/ICRM.


JAEGER: Dual-Level Humanoid Whole-Body Controller

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Due to hardware constraints and the inherent complexity of the robotic action space, achieving effective whole-body control (WBC) for adult-sized humanoid robots, such as the Unitree H1-2, remains a significant challenge. Recent studies on WBC have demonstrated promising advancements, enabling humanoid robots to perform versatile motions by learning from extensive human data [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]. Based on different task settings, WBC methodologies can be broadly categorized into three types: root velocity tracking [6], kinematic position tracking [1, 3], and local joint angle tracking [6, 2, 4]. Root velocity tracking emphasizes coarse-grained control, where the robot tracks a given velocity without relying on a specific reference pose. In contrast, kinematic position and local joint angle tracking focus on accurately reproducing a given trajectory of reference poses, which can be regarded as fine-grained control for humanoids.


The Problem With Early Cancer Detection

The New Yorker

The discovery began, as many breakthroughs do, with an observation that didn't quite make sense. In 1948, two French researchers, Paul Mandel and Pierre Métais, published a little-noticed paper in a scientific journal. Working in a laboratory in Strasbourg, they had been cataloguing the chemical contents of blood plasma--that river of life teeming with proteins, sugars, waste, nutrients, and cellular debris. Amid this familiar inventory, they'd spotted an unexpected presence: fragments of DNA drifting freely. The finding defied biological orthodoxy. DNA was thought to remain locked inside the nuclei of cells, and not float around on its own.


Bias and Identifiability in the Bounded Confidence Model

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Opinion dynamics models such as the bounded confidence models (BCMs) describe how a population can reach consensus, fragmentation, or polarization, depending on a few parameters. Connecting such models to real-world data could help understanding such phenomena, testing model assumptions. To this end, estimation of model parameters is a key aspect, and maximum likelihood estimation provides a principled way to tackle it. Here, our goal is to outline the properties of statistical estimators of the two key BCM parameters: the confidence bound and the convergence rate. We find that their maximum likelihood estimators present different characteristics: the one for the confidence bound presents a small-sample bias but is consistent, while the estimator of the convergence rate shows a persistent bias. Moreover, the joint parameter estimation is affected by identifiability issues for specific regions of the parameter space, as several local maxima are present in the likelihood function. Our results show how the analysis of the likelihood function is a fruitful approach for better understanding the pitfalls and possibilities of estimating the parameters of opinion dynamics models, and more in general, agent-based models, and for offering formal guarantees for their calibration.


Enhancing Large Language Models for Mobility Analytics with Semantic Location Tokenization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The widespread adoption of location-based services has led to the generation of vast amounts of mobility data, providing significant opportunities to model user movement dynamics within urban environments. Recent advancements have focused on adapting Large Language Models (LLMs) for mobility analytics. However, existing methods face two primary limitations: inadequate semantic representation of locations (i.e., discrete IDs) and insufficient modeling of mobility signals within LLMs (i.e., single templated instruction fine-tuning). To address these issues, we propose QT-Mob, a novel framework that significantly enhances LLMs for mobility analytics. QT-Mob introduces a location tokenization module that learns compact, semantically rich tokens to represent locations, preserving contextual information while ensuring compatibility with LLMs. Furthermore, QT-Mob incorporates a series of complementary fine-tuning objectives that align the learned tokens with the internal representations in LLMs, improving the model's comprehension of sequential movement patterns and location semantics. The proposed QT-Mob framework not only enhances LLMs' ability to interpret mobility data but also provides a more generalizable approach for various mobility analytics tasks. Experiments on three real-world dataset demonstrate the superior performance in both next-location prediction and mobility recovery tasks, outperforming existing deep learning and LLM-based methods.


Differential Privacy in Machine Learning: From Symbolic AI to LLMs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Machine learning models should not reveal particular information that is not otherwise accessible. Differential privacy provides a formal framework to mitigate privacy risks by ensuring that the inclusion or exclusion of any single data point does not significantly alter the output of an algorithm, thus limiting the exposure of private information. This survey paper explores the foundational definitions of differential privacy, reviews its original formulations and tracing its evolution through key research contributions. It then provides an in-depth examination of how DP has been integrated into machine learning models, analyzing existing proposals and methods to preserve privacy when training ML models. Finally, it describes how DP-based ML techniques can be evaluated in practice. %Finally, it discusses the broader implications of DP, highlighting its potential for public benefit, its real-world applications, and the challenges it faces, including vulnerabilities to adversarial attacks. By offering a comprehensive overview of differential privacy in machine learning, this work aims to contribute to the ongoing development of secure and responsible AI systems.


Course Project Report: Comparing MCMC and Variational Inference for Bayesian Probabilistic Matrix Factorization on the MovieLens Dataset

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This is a course project report with complete methodology, experiments, references and mathematical derivations. Matrix factorization [1] is a widely used technique in recommendation systems. Probabilistic Matrix Factorization (PMF) [2] extends traditional matrix factorization by incorporating probability distributions over latent factors, allowing for uncertainty quantification. However, computing the posterior distribution is intractable due to the high-dimensional integral. To address this, we employ two Bayesian inference methods: Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) [3, 4] and Variational Inference (VI) [5, 6] to approximate the posterior. We evaluate their performance on MovieLens dataset [7] and compare their convergence speed, predictive accuracy, and computational efficiency. Experimental results demonstrate that VI offers faster convergence, while MCMC provides more accurate posterior estimates.


On the performance of multi-fidelity and reduced-dimensional neural emulators for inference of physiologic boundary conditions

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Solving inverse problems in cardiovascular modeling is particularly challenging due to the high computational cost of running high-fidelity simulations. In this work, we focus on Bayesian parameter estimation and explore different methods to reduce the computational cost of sampling from the posterior distribution by leveraging low-fidelity approximations. A common approach is to construct a surrogate model for the high-fidelity simulation itself. Another is to build a surrogate for the discrepancy between high- and low-fidelity models. This discrepancy, which is often easier to approximate, is modeled with either a fully connected neural network or a nonlinear dimensionality reduction technique that enables surrogate construction in a lower-dimensional space. A third possible approach is to treat the discrepancy between the high-fidelity and surrogate models as random noise and estimate its distribution using normalizing flows. This allows us to incorporate the approximation error into the Bayesian inverse problem by modifying the likelihood function. We validate five different methods which are variations of the above on analytical test cases by comparing them to posterior distributions derived solely from high-fidelity models, assessing both accuracy and computational cost. Finally, we demonstrate our approaches on two cardiovascular examples of increasing complexity: a lumped-parameter Windkessel model and a patient-specific three-dimensional anatomy.