Identifying a causal model of an IT system is fundamental to many branches of systems engineering and operation. Such a model can be used to predict the effects of control actions, optimize operations, diagnose failures, detect intrusions, etc., which is central to achieving the longstanding goal of automating network and system management tasks. Traditionally, causal models have been designed and maintained by domain experts. This, however, proves increasingly challenging with the growing complexity and dynamism of modern IT systems. In this paper, we present the first principled method for online, data-driven identification of an IT system in the form of a causal model. The method, which we call active causal learning, estimates causal functions that capture the dependencies among system variables in an iterative fashion using Gaussian process regression based on system measurements, which are collected through a rollout-based intervention policy. We prove that this method is optimal in the Bayesian sense and that it produces effective interventions. Experimental validation on a testbed shows that our method enables accurate identification of a causal system model while inducing low interference with system operations.

Early diffusion models were formulated as continuous-time Markov chains over continuous spaces with Gaussian transition kernels (Sohl-Dickstein et al., 2015; Ho et al., 2020), and were later connected to continuous-time formulations via stochastic differential equations, offering a unifying perspective on score-based generative modeling (Song et al., 2020). In parallel, discrete diffusion has been developed from the viewpoint of Markov chains over discrete space (Hoogeboom et al., 2021). Notably, Austin et al. (2021) introduced D3PM with several families of discrete transition kernels, and Lou et al. (2023) proposed SEDD, which adopts score-based training objectives. A complementary line of work studies discrete flows (Campbell et al., 2024; Gat et al., 2024), aiming to understand continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) that interpolate between data and base distributions; this perspective aligns with ours. Subsequent extensions consider token-wise paths and path-wise structure within such flows (Shaul et al., 2024).

Multi-agent path finding (MAPF) is the problem of planning conflict-free paths from the designated start locations to goal positions for multiple agents. It underlies a variety of real-world tasks, including multi-robot coordination, robot-assisted logistics, and social navigation. Recent decentralized learnable solvers have shown great promise for large-scale MAPF, especially when leveraging foundation models and large datasets. However, these agents are reactive policy models and exhibit limited modeling of environmental temporal dynamics and inter-agent dependencies, resulting in performance degradation in complex, long-term planning scenarios. To address these limitations, we propose MAPF-World, an autoregressive action world model for MAPF that unifies situation understanding and action generation, guiding decisions beyond immediate local observations. It improves situational awareness by explicitly modeling environmental dynamics, including spatial features and temporal dependencies, through future state and actions prediction. By incorporating these predicted futures, MAPF-World enables more informed, coordinated, and far-sighted decision-making, especially in complex multi-agent settings. Furthermore, we augment MAPF benchmarks by introducing an automatic map generator grounded in real-world scenarios, capturing practical map layouts for training and evaluating MAPF solvers. Extensive experiments demonstrate that MAPF-World outperforms state-of-the-art learnable solvers, showcasing superior zero-shot generalization to out-of-distribution cases. Notably, MAPF-World is trained with a 96.5% smaller model size and 92% reduced data.

A Membership Inference Attack (MIA) assesses how much a trained machine learning model reveals about its training data by determining whether specific query instances were included in the dataset. We classify existing MIAs into adaptive or non-adaptive, depending on whether the adversary is allowed to train shadow models on membership queries. In the adaptive setting, where the adversary can train shadow models after accessing query instances, we highlight the importance of exploiting membership dependencies between instances and propose an attack-agnostic framework called Cascading Membership Inference Attack (CMIA), which incorporates membership dependencies via conditional shadow training to boost membership inference performance. In the non-adaptive setting, where the adversary is restricted to training shadow models before obtaining membership queries, we introduce Proxy Membership Inference Attack (PMIA). PMIA employs a proxy selection strategy that identifies samples with similar behaviors to the query instance and uses their behaviors in shadow models to perform a membership posterior odds test for membership inference. We provide theoretical analyses for both attacks, and extensive experimental results demonstrate that CMIA and PMIA substantially outperform existing MIAs in both settings, particularly in the low false-positive regime, which is crucial for evaluating privacy risks.

A universal controller for any robot morphology would greatly improve computational and data efficiency. By utilizing contextual information about the properties of individual robots and exploiting their modular structure in the architecture of deep reinforcement learning agents, steps have been made towards multi-robot control. Generalization to new, unseen robots, however, remains a challenge. In this paper we hypothesize that the relevant contextual information is partially observable, but that it can be inferred through interactions for better generalization to contexts that are not seen during training. To this extent, we implement a modular recurrent architecture and evaluate its generalization performance on a large set of MuJoCo robots. The results show a substantial improved performance on robots with unseen dynamics, kinematics, and topologies, in four different environments.

The iterative and stochastic nature of diffusion models enables test-time scaling, whereby spending additional compute during denoising generates higher-fidelity samples. Increasing the number of denoising steps is the primary scaling axis, but this yields quickly diminishing returns. Instead optimizing the noise trajectory--the sequence of injected noise vectors--is promising, as the specific noise realizations critically affect sample quality; but this is challenging due to a high-dimensional search space, complex noise-outcome interactions, and costly trajectory evaluations. We address this by first casting diffusion as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) with a terminal reward, showing tree-search methods such as Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS) to be meaningful but impractical. To balance performance and efficiency, we then resort to a relaxation of MDP, where we view denoising as a sequence of independent contextual bandits. This allows us to introduce an $ε$-greedy search algorithm that globally explores at extreme timesteps and locally exploits during the intermediate steps where de-mixing occurs. Experiments on EDM and Stable Diffusion reveal state-of-the-art scores for class-conditioned/text-to-image generation, exceeding baselines by up to $164\%$ and matching/exceeding MCTS performance. To our knowledge, this is the first practical method for test-time noise trajectory optimization of arbitrary (non-differentiable) rewards.

Detecting whether an LLM hallucinates is an important research challenge. One promising way of doing so is to estimate the semantic entropy (Farquhar et al., 2024) of the distribution of generated sequences. We propose a new algorithm for doing that, with two main advantages. First, due to us taking the Bayesian approach, we achieve a much better quality of semantic entropy estimates for a given budget of samples from the LLM. Second, we are able to tune the number of samples adaptively so that `harder' contexts receive more samples. We demonstrate empirically that our approach systematically beats the baselines, requiring only 53% of samples used by Farquhar et al. (2024) to achieve the same quality of hallucination detection as measured by AUROC. Moreover, quite counterintuitively, our estimator is useful even with just one sample from the LLM.

Large Language Models are increasingly used to simulate human opinion dynamics, yet the effect of genuine interaction is often obscured by systematic biases. We present a Bayesian framework to disentangle and quantify three such biases: (i) a topic bias toward prior opinions in the training data; (ii) an agreement bias favoring agreement irrespective of the question; and (iii) an anchoring bias toward the initiating agent's stance. Applying this framework to multi-step dialogues reveals that opinion trajectories tend to quickly converge to a shared attractor, with the influence of the interaction fading over time, and the impact of biases differing between LLMs. In addition, we fine-tune an LLM on different sets of strongly opinionated statements (incl. misinformation) and demonstrate that the opinion attractor shifts correspondingly. Exposing stark differences between LLMs and providing quantitative tools to compare them to human subjects in the future, our approach highlights both chances and pitfalls in using LLMs as proxies for human behavior.

Transductive conformal prediction addresses the simultaneous prediction for multiple data points. Given a desired confidence level, the objective is to construct a prediction set that includes the true outcomes with the prescribed confidence. We demonstrate a fundamental trade-off between confidence and efficiency in transductive methods, where efficiency is measured by the size of the prediction sets. Specifically, we derive a strict finite-sample bound showing that any non-trivial confidence level leads to exponential growth in prediction set size for data with inherent uncertainty. The exponent scales linearly with the number of samples and is proportional to the conditional entropy of the data. Additionally, the bound includes a second-order term, dispersion, defined as the variance of the log conditional probability distribution. We show that this bound is achievable in an idealized setting. Finally, we examine a special case of transductive prediction where all test data points share the same label. We show that this scenario reduces to the hypothesis testing problem with empirically observed statistics and provide an asymptotically optimal confidence predictor, along with an analysis of the error exponent.

The $f$-divergence is a fundamental notion that measures the difference between two distributions. In this paper, we study the problem of approximating the $f$-divergence between two Ising models, which is a generalization of recent work on approximating the TV-distance. Given two Ising models $ν$ and $μ$, which are specified by their interaction matrices and external fields, the problem is to approximate the $f$-divergence $D_f(ν\,\|\,μ)$ within an arbitrary relative error $\mathrm{e}^{\pm \varepsilon}$. For $χ^α$-divergence with a constant integer $α$, we establish both algorithmic and hardness results. The algorithm works in a parameter regime that matches the hardness result. Our algorithm can be extended to other $f$-divergences such as $α$-divergence, Kullback-Leibler divergence, Rényi divergence, Jensen-Shannon divergence, and squared Hellinger distance.