Generalized linear models (GLMs)--such as logistic regression, Poisson regression, and robust regression--provide interpretable models for diverse data types. Probabilistic approaches, particularly Bayesian ones, allow coherent estimates of uncertainty, incorporation of prior information, and sharing of power across experiments via hierarchical models. In practice, however, the approximate Bayesian methods necessary for inference have either failed to scale to large data sets or failed to provide theoretical guarantees on the quality of inference. We propose a new approach based on constructing polynomial approximate sufficient statistics for GLMs (P ASS-GLM). We demonstrate that our method admits a simple algorithm as well as trivial streaming and distributed extensions that do not compound error across computations. We provide theoretical guarantees on the quality of point (MAP) estimates, the approximate posterior, and posterior mean and uncertainty estimates. We validate our approach empirically in the case of logistic regression using a quadratic approximation and show competitive performance with stochastic gradient descent, MCMC, and the Laplace approximation in terms of speed and multiple measures of accuracy--including on an advertising data set with 40 million data points and 20,000 covariates.

Stochastic Gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SG-MCMC) algorithms have become increasingly popular for Bayesian inference in large-scale applications.

Sparse edge recovery is generally not easy for an arbitrary distribution.

There, demand is highly intermittent and bursty: long runs of zeros, with islands of high counts.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) and probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) are the two main tools for statistical modeling.

Unfortunately, if cross-task knowledge transfer is impossible, then we will overfit each task due to limited amount of labeled data. One way to circumvent this dilemma is to use an external data source, e.g.

We consider the problem of non-parametric Conditional Independence testing (CI testing) for continuous random variables. Given i.i.d samples from the joint distribution

Gaussian processes are rich distributions over functions, with generalization properties determined by a kernel function. When used for long-range extrapolation, predictions are particularly sensitive to the choice of kernel parameters. It is therefore critical to account for kernel uncertainty in our predictive distributions. We propose a distribution over kernels formed by modelling a spectral mixture density with a L evy process. The resulting distribution has support for all stationary covariances--including the popular RBF, periodic, and Mat ern kernels-- combined with inductive biases which enable automatic and data efficient learning, long-range extrapolation, and state of the art predictive performance. The proposed model also presents an approach to spectral regularization, as the L evy process introduces a sparsity-inducing prior over mixture components, allowing automatic selection over model order and pruning of extraneous components. We exploit the algebraic structure of the proposed process for O (n) training and O (1) predictions. We perform extrapolations having reasonable uncertainty estimates on several benchmarks, show that the proposed model can recover flexible ground truth covariances and that it is robust to errors in initialization.

"thermostat" variables to control the effect of this noise on the momentum terms [

Many graphical models, such as Markov Logic Networks (MLNs) with evidence, possess highly symmetric substructures but no exact symmetries. Unfortunately, there are few principled methods that exploit these symmetric substructures to perform efficient approximate inference. In this paper, we present a lifted variant of the Weighted Mini-Bucket elimination algorithm which provides a principled way to (i) exploit the highly symmetric substructure of MLN models, and (ii) incorporate high-order inference terms which are necessary for high quality approximate inference. Our method has significant control over the accuracy-time trade-off of the approximation, allowing us to generate any-time approximations. Experimental results demonstrate the utility of this class of approximations, especially in models with strong repulsive potentials.