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On a Reinforcement Learning Methodology for Epidemic Control, with application to COVID-19

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper presents a real time, data driven decision support framework for epidemic control. We combine a compartmental epidemic model with sequential Bayesian inference and reinforcement learning (RL) controllers that adaptively choose intervention levels to balance disease burden, such as intensive care unit (ICU) load, against socio economic costs. We construct a context specific cost function using empirical experiments and expert feedback. We study two RL policies: an ICU threshold rule computed via Monte Carlo grid search, and a policy based on a posterior averaged Q learning agent. We validate the framework by fitting the epidemic model to publicly available ICU occupancy data from the COVID 19 pandemic in England and then generating counterfactual roll out scenarios under each RL controller, which allows us to compare the RL policies to the historical government strategy. Over a 300 day period and for a range of cost parameters, both controllers substantially reduce ICU burden relative to the observed interventions, illustrating how Bayesian sequential learning combined with RL can support the design of epidemic control policies.


Prequential posteriors

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Data assimilation is a fundamental task in updating forecasting models upon observing new data, with applications ranging from weather prediction to online reinforcement learning. Deep generative forecasting models (DGFMs) have shown excellent performance in these areas, but assimilating data into such models is challenging due to their intractable likelihood functions. This limitation restricts the use of standard Bayesian data assimilation methodologies for DGFMs. To overcome this, we introduce prequential posteriors, based upon a predictive-sequential (prequential) loss function; an approach naturally suited for temporally dependent data which is the focus of forecasting tasks. Since the true data-generating process often lies outside the assumed model class, we adopt an alternative notion of consistency and prove that, under mild conditions, both the prequential loss minimizer and the prequential posterior concentrate around parameters with optimal predictive performance. For scalable inference, we employ easily parallelizable wastefree sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers with preconditioned gradient-based kernels, enabling efficient exploration of high-dimensional parameter spaces such as those in DGFMs. We validate our method on both a synthetic multi-dimensional time series and a real-world meteorological dataset; highlighting its practical utility for data assimilation for complex dynamical systems.


Scalable Bayesian Network Structure Learning Using Tsetlin Machine to Constrain the Search Space

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The PC algorithm is a widely used method in causal inference for learning the structure of Bayesian networks. Despite its popularity, the PC algorithm suffers from significant time complexity, particularly as the size of the dataset increases, which limits its applicability in large-scale real-world problems. In this study, we propose a novel approach that utilises the Tsetlin Machine (TM) to construct Bayesian structures more efficiently. Our method leverages the most significant literals extracted from the TM and performs conditional independence (CI) tests on these selected literals instead of the full set of variables, resulting in a considerable reduction in computational time. We implemented our approach and compared it with various state-of-the-art methods. Our evaluation includes categorical datasets from the bnlearn repository, such as Munin1, Hepar2. The findings indicate that the proposed TM-based method not only reduces computational complexity but also maintains competitive accuracy in causal discovery, making it a viable alternative to traditional PC algorithm implementations by offering improved efficiency without compromising performance.


Think How Your Teammates Think: Active Inference Can Benefit Decentralized Execution

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In multi-agent systems, explicit cognition of teammates' decision logic serves as a critical factor in facilitating coordination. Communication (i.e., ``\textit{Tell}'') can assist in the cognitive development process by information dissemination, yet it is inevitably subject to real-world constraints such as noise, latency, and attacks. Therefore, building the understanding of teammates' decisions without communication remains challenging. To address this, we propose a novel non-communication MARL framework that realizes the construction of cognition through local observation-based modeling (i.e., \textit{``Think''}). Our framework enables agents to model teammates' \textbf{active inference} process. At first, the proposed method produces three teammate portraits: perception-belief-action. Specifically, we model the teammate's decision process as follows: 1) Perception: observing environments; 2) Belief: forming beliefs; 3) Action: making decisions. Then, we selectively integrate the belief portrait into the decision process based on the accuracy and relevance of the perception portrait. This enables the selection of cooperative teammates and facilitates effective collaboration. Extensive experiments on the SMAC, SMACv2, MPE, and GRF benchmarks demonstrate the superior performance of our method.


Reinforcement Learning for Self-Healing Material Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The transition to autonomous material systems necessitates adaptive control methodologies to maximize structural longevity. This study frames the self-healing process as a Reinforcement Learning (RL) problem within a Markov Decision Process (MDP), enabling agents to autonomously derive optimal policies that efficiently balance structural integrity maintenance against finite resource consumption. A comparative evaluation of discrete-action (Q-learning, DQN) and continuous-action (TD3) agents in a stochastic simulation environment revealed that RL controllers significantly outperform heuristic baselines, achieving near-complete material recovery. Crucially, the TD3 agent utilizing continuous dosage control demonstrated superior convergence speed and stability, underscoring the necessity of fine-grained, proportional actuation in dynamic self-healing applications.


DynamiX: Dynamic Resource eXploration for Personalized Ad-Recommendations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

For online ad-recommendation systems, processing complete user-ad-engagement histories is both computationally intensive and noise-prone. We introduce Dynamix, a scalable, personalized sequence exploration framework that optimizes event history processing using maximum relevance principles and self-supervised learning through Event Based Features (EBFs). Dynamix categorizes users-engagements at session and surface-levels by leveraging correlations between dwell-times and ad-conversion events. This enables targeted, event-level feature removal and selective feature boosting for certain user-segments, thereby yielding training and inference efficiency wins without sacrificing engaging ad-prediction accuracy. While, dynamic resource removal increases training and inference throughput by 1.15% and 1.8%, respectively, dynamic feature boosting provides 0.033 NE gains while boosting inference QPS by 4.2% over baseline models. These results demonstrate that Dynamix achieves significant cost efficiency and performance improvements in online user-sequence based recommendation models. Self-supervised user-segmentation and resource exploration can further boost complex feature selection strategies while optimizing for workflow and compute resources.


MOMA-AC: A preference-driven actor-critic framework for continuous multi-objective multi-agent reinforcement learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper addresses a critical gap in Multi-Objective Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MOMARL) by introducing the first dedicated inner-loop actor-critic framework for continuous state and action spaces: Multi-Objective Multi-Agent Actor-Critic (MOMA-AC). Building on single-objective, single-agent algorithms, we instantiate this framework with Twin Delayed Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (TD3) and Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (DDPG), yielding MOMA-TD3 and MOMA-DDPG. The framework combines a multi-headed actor network, a centralised critic, and an objective preference-conditioning architecture, enabling a single neural network to encode the Pareto front of optimal trade-off policies for all agents across conflicting objectives in a continuous MOMARL setting. We also outline a natural test suite for continuous MOMARL by combining a pre-existing multi-agent single-objective physics simulator with its multi-objective single-agent counterpart. Evaluating cooperative locomotion tasks in this suite, we show that our framework achieves statistically significant improvements in expected utility and hypervolume relative to outer-loop and independent training baselines, while demonstrating stable scalability as the number of agents increases. These results establish our framework as a foundational step towards robust, scalable multi-objective policy learning in continuous multi-agent domains.


Comparing Labeled Markov Chains: A Cantor-Kantorovich Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Labeled Markov Chains (or LMCs for short) are useful mathematical objects to model complex probabilistic languages. A central challenge is to compare two LMCs, for example to assess the accuracy of an abstraction or to quantify the effect of model perturbations. In this work, we study the recently introduced Cantor-Kantorovich (or CK) distance. In particular we show that the latter can be framed as a discounted sum of finite-horizon Total Variation distances, making it an instance of discounted linear distance, but arising from the natural Cantor topology. Building on the latter observation, we analyze the properties of the CK distance along three dimensions: computational complexity, continuity properties and approximation. More precisely, we show that the exact computation of the CK distance is #P-hard. We also provide an upper bound on the CK distance as a function of the approximation relation between the two LMCs, and show that a bounded CK distance implies a bounded error between probabilities of finite-horizon traces. Finally, we provide a computable approximation scheme, and show that the latter is also #P-hard. Altogether, our results provide a rigorous theoretical foundation for the CK distance and clarify its relationship with existing distances.


Sparse Kalman Identification for Partially Observable Systems via Adaptive Bayesian Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Sparse dynamics identification is an essential tool for discovering interpretable physical models and enabling efficient control in engineering systems. However, existing methods rely on batch learning with full historical data, limiting their applicability to real-time scenarios involving sequential and partially observable data. To overcome this limitation, this paper proposes an online Sparse Kalman Identification (SKI) method by integrating the Augmented Kalman Filter (AKF) and Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD). The main contributions are: (1) a theoretically grounded Bayesian sparsification scheme that is seamlessly integrated into the AKF framework and adapted to sequentially collected data in online scenarios; (2) an update mechanism that adapts the Kalman posterior to reflect the updated selection of the basis functions that define the model structure; (3) an explicit gradient-descent formulation that enhances computational efficiency. Consequently, the SKI method achieves accurate model structure selection with millisecond-level efficiency and higher identification accuracy, as demonstrated by extensive simulations and real-world experiments (showing an 84.21\% improvement in accuracy over the baseline AKF).


Correlated-Sequence Differential Privacy

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Abstract--Data streams collected from multiple sources are rarely independent. V alues evolve over time and influence one another across sequences. These correlations improve prediction in healthcare, finance, and smart-city control yet violate the record-independence assumption built into most Differential Privacy (DP) mechanisms. T o restore rigorous privacy guarantees without sacrificing utility, we introduce Correlated-Sequence Differential Privacy (CSDP), a framework specifically designed for preserving privacy in correlated sequential data. CSDP addresses two linked challenges: quantifying the extra information an attacker gains from joint temporal and cross-sequence links, and adding just enough noise to hide that information while keeping the data useful. We model multivariate streams as a Coupling Markov Chain, yielding the derived loose leakage bound expressed with a few spectral terms and revealing a counterintuitive result: stronger coupling can actually decrease worst-case leakage by dispersing perturbations across sequences. Guided by these bounds, we build the Freshness-Regulated Adaptive Noise (FRAN) mechanism--combining data aging, correlation-aware sensitivity scaling, and Laplace noise--that runs in linear time. T ests on two-sequence datasets show that CSDP improves the privacy-utility trade-off by approximately 50% over existing correlated-DP methods and by two orders of magnitude compared to the standard DP approach.