The robustness of Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USV) is crucial when facing unknown and complex marine environments, especially when heteroscedastic observational noise poses significant challenges to sensor-based navigation tasks. Recently, Distributional Reinforcement Learning (DistRL) has shown promising results in some challenging autonomous navigation tasks without prior environmental information. However, these methods overlook situations where noise patterns vary across different environmental conditions, hindering safe navigation and disrupting the learning of value functions. To address the problem, we propose DRIQN to integrate Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) with implicit quantile networks to optimize worst-case performance under natural environmental conditions. Leveraging explicit subgroup modeling in the replay buffer, DRIQN incorporates heterogeneous noise sources and target robustness-critical scenarios. Experimental results based on the risk-sensitive environment demonstrate that DRIQN significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods, achieving +13.51\% success rate, -12.28\% collision rate and +35.46\% for time saving, +27.99\% for energy saving, compared with the runner-up.

The paradigm of learning-based robotics holds immense promise, yet its translation to real-world applications is critically hindered by the sample inefficiency and brittleness of conventional model-free reinforcement learning algorithms. In this work, we address these challenges by introducing DREAMer-VXS, a model-based framework for Autonomous Ground Vehicle (AGV) exploration that learns to plan from imagined latent trajectories. Our approach centers on learning a comprehensive world model from partial and high-dimensional LiDAR observations. This world model is composed of a Convolutional Variational Autoencoder (VAE), which learns a compact representation of the environment's structure, and a Recurrent State-Space Model (RSSM), which models complex temporal dynamics. By leveraging this learned model as a high-speed simulator, the agent can train its navigation policy almost entirely in imagination. This methodology decouples policy learning from real-world interaction, culminating in a 90% reduction in required environmental interactions to achieve expert-level performance when compared to state-of-the-art model-free SAC baselines. The agent's behavior is guided by an actor-critic policy optimized with a composite reward function that balances task objectives with an intrinsic curiosity bonus, promoting systematic exploration of unknown spaces. We demonstrate through extensive simulated experiments that DREAMer-VXS not only learns orders of magnitude faster but also develops more generalizable and robust policies, achieving a 45% increase in exploration efficiency in unseen environments and superior resilience to dynamic obstacles.

Machine learning models perform well across domains such as diagnostics, weather forecasting, NLP, and autonomous driving, but their limited uncertainty handling restricts use in safety-critical settings. Traditional neural networks often fail to detect out-of-domain (OOD) data and may output confident yet incorrect predictions. Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) address this by providing probabilistic estimates, but incur high computational cost because predictions require sampling weight distributions and multiple forward passes. The Probabilistic Forward Pass (PFP) offers a highly efficient approximation to Stochastic Variational Inference (SVI) by assuming Gaussian-distributed weights and activations, enabling fully analytic uncertainty propagation and replacing sampling with a single deterministic forward pass. We present an end-to-end pipeline for training, compiling, optimizing, and deploying PFP-based BNNs on embedded ARM CPUs. Using the TVM deep learning compiler, we implement a dedicated library of Gaussian-propagating operators for multilayer perceptrons and convolutional neural networks, combined with manual and automated tuning strategies. Ablation studies show that PFP consistently outperforms SVI in computational efficiency, achieving speedups of up to 4200x for small mini-batches. PFP-BNNs match SVI-BNNs on Dirty-MNIST in accuracy, uncertainty estimation, and OOD detection while greatly reducing compute cost. These results highlight the potential of combining Bayesian approximations with code generation to enable efficient BNN deployment on resource-constrained systems.

Transformers have proven highly effective across various applications, especially in handling sequential data such as natural languages and time series. However, transformer models often lack clear interpretability, and the success of transformers has not been well understood in theory. In this paper, we study the capability and interpretability of transformers in learning a family of classic statistical models, namely random walks on circles. We theoretically demonstrate that, after training with gradient descent, a one-layer transformer model can achieve optimal accuracy in predicting random walks. Importantly, our analysis reveals that the trained model is interpretable: the trained softmax attention serves as a token selector, focusing on the direct parent state; subsequently, the value matrix executes a one-step probability transition to predict the location of the next state based on this parent state. We also show that certain edge cases not covered by our theory are indeed failure cases, demonstrating that our theoretical conditions are tight. By investigating these success and failure cases, it is revealed that gradient descent with small initialization may fail or struggle to converge to a good solution in certain simple tasks even beyond random walks. Experiments are conducted to support our theoretical findings.

Bayesian computational strategies for inference can be inefficient in approximating the posterior distribution in models that exhibit some form of periodicity. This is because the probability mass of the marginal posterior distribution of the parameter representing the period is usually highly concentrated in a very small region of the parameter space. Therefore, it is necessary to provide as much information as possible to the inference method through the parameter prior distribution. We intend to show that it is possible to construct a prior distribution from the data by fitting a Gaussian process (GP) with a periodic kernel. More specifically, we want to show that it is possible to approximate the marginal posterior distribution of the hyperparameter corresponding to the period in the kernel. Subsequently, this distribution can be used as a prior distribution for the inference method. We use an adaptive importance sampling method to approximate the posterior distribution of the hyperparameters of the GP. Then, we use the marginal posterior distribution of the hyperparameter related to the periodicity in order to construct a prior distribution for the period of the parametric model. This workflow is empirical Bayes, implemented as a modular (cut) transfer of a GP posterior for the period to the parametric model. We applied the proposed methodology to both synthetic and real data. We approximated the posterior distribution of the period of the GP kernel and then passed it forward as a posterior-as-prior with no feedback. Finally, we analyzed its impact on the marginal posterior distribution.

Support vector machines are widely used in machine learning classification tasks, but traditional SVM models suffer from sensitivity to outliers and instability in resampling, which limits their performance in practical applications. To address these issues, this paper proposes a novel rescaled Huberized pinball loss function with asymmetric, non-convex, and smooth properties. Based on this loss function, we develop a corresponding SVM model called RHPSVM (Rescaled Huberized Pinball Loss Support Vector Machine). Theoretical analyses demonstrate that RHPSVM conforms to Bayesian rules, has a strict generalization error bound, a bounded influence function, and controllable optimality conditions, ensuring excellent classification accuracy, outlier insensitivity, and resampling stability. Additionally, RHPSVM can be extended to various advanced SVM variants by adjusting parameters, enhancing its flexibility. We transform the non-convex optimization problem of RHPSVM into a series of convex subproblems using the concave-convex procedure (CCCP) and solve it with the ClipDCD algorithm, which is proven to be convergent. Experimental results on simulated data, UCI datasets, and small-sample crop leaf image classification tasks show that RHPSVM outperforms existing SVM models in both noisy and noise-free scenarios, especially in handling high-dimensional small-sample data.

Uncertainty quantification is vital for decision-making and risk assessment in machine learning. Mean-variance regression models, which predict both a mean and residual noise for each data point, provide a simple approach to uncertainty quantification. However, overparameterized mean-variance models struggle with signal-to-noise ambiguity, deciding whether prediction targets should be attributed to signal (mean) or noise (variance). At one extreme, models fit all training targets perfectly with zero residual noise, while at the other, they provide constant, uninformative predictions and explain the targets as noise. We observe a sharp phase transition between these extremes, driven by model regularization. Empirical studies with varying regularization levels illustrate this transition, revealing substantial variability across repeated runs. To explain this behavior, we develop a statistical field theory framework, which captures the observed phase transition in alignment with experimental results. This analysis reduces the regularization hyperparameter search space from two dimensions to one, significantly lowering computational costs. Experiments on UCI datasets and the large-scale ClimSim dataset demonstrate robust calibration performance, effectively quantifying predictive uncertainty.

Label shift, a prevalent challenge in supervised learning, arises when the class prior distribution of test data differs from that of training data, leading to significant degradation in classifier performance. To accurately estimate the test priors and enhance classification accuracy, we propose a Bayesian framework for label shift estimation, termed Full Maximum A Posterior Label Shift (FMAPLS), along with its online version, online-FMAPLS. Leveraging batch and online Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithms, these methods jointly and dynamically optimize Dirichlet hyperparameters $\boldsymbolα$ and class priors $\boldsymbolπ$, thereby overcoming the rigid constraints of the existing Maximum A Posterior Label Shift (MAPLS) approach. Moreover, we introduce a linear surrogate function (LSF) to replace gradient-based hyperparameter updates, yielding closed-form solutions that reduce computational complexity while retaining asymptotic equivalence. The online variant substitutes the batch E-step with a stochastic approximation, enabling real-time adaptation to streaming data. Furthermore, our theoretical analysis reveals a fundamental trade-off between online convergence rate and estimation accuracy. Extensive experiments on CIFAR100 and ImageNet datasets under shuffled long-tail and Dirichlet test priors demonstrate that FMAPLS and online-FMAPLS respectively achieve up to 40% and 12% lower KL divergence and substantial improvements in post-shift accuracy over state-of-the-art baselines, particularly under severe class imbalance and distributional uncertainty. These results confirm the robustness, scalability, and suitability of the proposed methods for large-scale and dynamic learning scenarios.

Abstract-- T o support the circular economy, robotic systems must not only assemble new products but also disassemble end-of-life (EOL) ones for reuse, recycling, or safe disposal. Existing approaches to disassembly sequence planning often assume deterministic and fully observable product models, yet real EOL products frequently deviate from their initial designs due to wear, corrosion, or undocumented repairs. We argue that disassembly should therefore be formulated as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP), which naturally captures uncertainty about the product's internal state. We present a mathematical formulation of disassembly as a POMDP, in which hidden variables represent uncertain structural or physical properties. Building on this formulation, we propose a task and motion planning framework that automatically derives specific POMDP models from CAD data, robot capabilities, and inspection results. T o obtain tractable policies, we approximate this formulation with a reinforcement-learning approach that operates on stochastic action outcomes informed by inspection priors, while a Bayesian filter continuously maintains beliefs over latent EOL conditions during execution. Using three products on two robotic systems, we demonstrate that this probabilistic planning framework outperforms deterministic baselines in terms of average disassembly time and variance, generalizes across different robot setups, and successfully adapts to deviations from the CAD model, such as missing or stuck parts. I. INTRODUCTION Modern industrial production still follows a linear model of make-use-dispose, accelerating the depletion of natural resources on our planet.

Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) holds significant promise for enabling cooperative driving among Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs). However, its practical application is hindered by a critical limitation, i.e., insufficient fault tolerance against observational faults. Such faults, which appear as perturbations in the vehicles' perceived data, can substantially compromise the performance of MARL-based driving systems. Addressing this problem presents two primary challenges. One is to generate adversarial perturbations that effectively stress the policy during training, and the other is to equip vehicles with the capability to mitigate the impact of corrupted observations. To overcome the challenges, we propose a fault-tolerant MARL method for cooperative on-ramp vehicles incorporating two key agents. First, an adversarial fault injection agent is co-trained to generate perturbations that actively challenge and harden the vehicle policies. Second, we design a novel fault-tolerant vehicle agent equipped with a self-diagnosis capability, which leverages the inherent spatio-temporal correlations in vehicle state sequences to detect faults and reconstruct credible observations, thereby shielding the policy from misleading inputs. Experiments in a simulated highway merging scenario demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms baseline MARL approaches, achieving near-fault-free levels of safety and efficiency under various observation fault patterns.