Learning Graphical Models
Comparing Labeled Markov Chains: A Cantor-Kantorovich Approach
Banse, Adrien, Abate, Alessandro, Jungers, Raphaël M.
Labeled Markov Chains (or LMCs for short) are useful mathematical objects to model complex probabilistic languages. A central challenge is to compare two LMCs, for example to assess the accuracy of an abstraction or to quantify the effect of model perturbations. In this work, we study the recently introduced Cantor-Kantorovich (or CK) distance. In particular we show that the latter can be framed as a discounted sum of finite-horizon Total Variation distances, making it an instance of discounted linear distance, but arising from the natural Cantor topology. Building on the latter observation, we analyze the properties of the CK distance along three dimensions: computational complexity, continuity properties and approximation. More precisely, we show that the exact computation of the CK distance is #P-hard. We also provide an upper bound on the CK distance as a function of the approximation relation between the two LMCs, and show that a bounded CK distance implies a bounded error between probabilities of finite-horizon traces. Finally, we provide a computable approximation scheme, and show that the latter is also #P-hard. Altogether, our results provide a rigorous theoretical foundation for the CK distance and clarify its relationship with existing distances.
Sparse Kalman Identification for Partially Observable Systems via Adaptive Bayesian Learning
Mei, Jilan, Zheng, Tengjie, Cheng, Lin, Gong, Shengping, Huang, Xu
Sparse dynamics identification is an essential tool for discovering interpretable physical models and enabling efficient control in engineering systems. However, existing methods rely on batch learning with full historical data, limiting their applicability to real-time scenarios involving sequential and partially observable data. To overcome this limitation, this paper proposes an online Sparse Kalman Identification (SKI) method by integrating the Augmented Kalman Filter (AKF) and Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD). The main contributions are: (1) a theoretically grounded Bayesian sparsification scheme that is seamlessly integrated into the AKF framework and adapted to sequentially collected data in online scenarios; (2) an update mechanism that adapts the Kalman posterior to reflect the updated selection of the basis functions that define the model structure; (3) an explicit gradient-descent formulation that enhances computational efficiency. Consequently, the SKI method achieves accurate model structure selection with millisecond-level efficiency and higher identification accuracy, as demonstrated by extensive simulations and real-world experiments (showing an 84.21\% improvement in accuracy over the baseline AKF).
Correlated-Sequence Differential Privacy
Luo, Yifan, Zhang, Meng, Xu, Jin, Chen, Junting, Huang, Jianwei
Abstract--Data streams collected from multiple sources are rarely independent. V alues evolve over time and influence one another across sequences. These correlations improve prediction in healthcare, finance, and smart-city control yet violate the record-independence assumption built into most Differential Privacy (DP) mechanisms. T o restore rigorous privacy guarantees without sacrificing utility, we introduce Correlated-Sequence Differential Privacy (CSDP), a framework specifically designed for preserving privacy in correlated sequential data. CSDP addresses two linked challenges: quantifying the extra information an attacker gains from joint temporal and cross-sequence links, and adding just enough noise to hide that information while keeping the data useful. We model multivariate streams as a Coupling Markov Chain, yielding the derived loose leakage bound expressed with a few spectral terms and revealing a counterintuitive result: stronger coupling can actually decrease worst-case leakage by dispersing perturbations across sequences. Guided by these bounds, we build the Freshness-Regulated Adaptive Noise (FRAN) mechanism--combining data aging, correlation-aware sensitivity scaling, and Laplace noise--that runs in linear time. T ests on two-sequence datasets show that CSDP improves the privacy-utility trade-off by approximately 50% over existing correlated-DP methods and by two orders of magnitude compared to the standard DP approach.
Reward Engineering for Spatial Epidemic Simulations: A Reinforcement Learning Platform for Individual Behavioral Learning
Rakhshandehroo, Radman, Coombs, Daniel
We present ContagionRL, a Gymnasium-compatible reinforcement learning platform specifically designed for systematic reward engineering in spatial epidemic simulations. Unlike traditional agent-based models that rely on fixed behavioral rules, our platform enables rigorous evaluation of how reward function design affects learned survival strategies across diverse epidemic scenarios. ContagionRL integrates a spatial SIRS+D epidemiological model with configurable environmental parameters, allowing researchers to stress-test reward functions under varying conditions including limited observability, different movement patterns, and heterogeneous population dynamics. We evaluate five distinct reward designs, ranging from sparse survival bonuses to a novel potential field approach, across multiple RL algorithms (PPO, SAC, A2C). Through systematic ablation studies, we identify that directional guidance and explicit adherence incentives are critical components for robust policy learning. Our comprehensive evaluation across varying infection rates, grid sizes, visibility constraints, and movement patterns reveals that reward function choice dramatically impacts agent behavior and survival outcomes. Agents trained with our potential field reward consistently achieve superior performance, learning maximal adherence to non-pharmaceutical interventions while developing sophisticated spatial avoidance strategies. The platform's modular design enables systematic exploration of reward-behavior relationships, addressing a knowledge gap in models of this type where reward engineering has received limited attention. ContagionRL is an effective platform for studying adaptive behavioral responses in epidemic contexts and highlight the importance of reward design, information structure, and environmental predictability in learning.
QuickLAP: Quick Language-Action Preference Learning for Autonomous Driving Agents
Nader, Jordan Abi, Lee, David, Dennler, Nathaniel, Bobu, Andreea
Robots must learn from both what people do and what they say, but either modality alone is often incomplete: physical corrections are grounded but ambiguous in intent, while language expresses high-level goals but lacks physical grounding. We introduce QuickLAP: Quick Language-Action Preference learning, a Bayesian framework that fuses physical and language feedback to infer reward functions in real time. Our key insight is to treat language as a probabilistic observation over the user's latent preferences, clarifying which reward features matter and how physical corrections should be interpreted. QuickLAP uses Large Language Models (LLMs) to extract reward feature attention masks and preference shifts from free-form utterances, which it integrates with physical feedback in a closed-form update rule. This enables fast, real-time, and robust reward learning that handles ambiguous feedback. In a semi-autonomous driving simulator, QuickLAP reduces reward learning error by over 70% compared to physical-only and heuristic multimodal baselines. A 15-participant user study further validates our approach: participants found QuickLAP significantly more understandable and collaborative, and preferred its learned behavior over baselines. Code is available at https://github.com/MIT-CLEAR-Lab/QuickLAP.
Cognitive Foundations for Reasoning and Their Manifestation in LLMs
Kargupta, Priyanka, Li, Shuyue Stella, Wang, Haocheng, Lee, Jinu, Chen, Shan, Ahia, Orevaoghene, Light, Dean, Griffiths, Thomas L., Kleiman-Weiner, Max, Han, Jiawei, Celikyilmaz, Asli, Tsvetkov, Yulia
Large language models (LLMs) solve complex problems yet fail on simpler variants, suggesting they achieve correct outputs through mechanisms fundamentally different from human reasoning. To understand this gap, we synthesize cognitive science research into a taxonomy of 28 cognitive elements spanning reasoning invariants, meta-cognitive controls, representations for organizing reasoning & knowledge, and transformation operations. We introduce a fine-grained evaluation framework and conduct the first large-scale empirical analysis of 192K traces from 18 models across text, vision, and audio, complemented by 54 human think-aloud traces, which we make publicly available. We find that models under-utilize cognitive elements correlated with success, narrowing to rigid sequential processing on ill-structured problems where diverse representations and meta-cognitive monitoring are critical. Human traces show more abstraction and conceptual processing, while models default to surface-level enumeration. Meta-analysis of 1.6K LLM reasoning papers reveals the research community concentrates on easily quantifiable elements (sequential organization: 55%, decomposition: 60%) but neglecting meta-cognitive controls (self-awareness: 16%) that correlate with success. Models possess behavioral repertoires associated with success but fail to deploy them spontaneously. Leveraging these patterns, we develop test-time reasoning guidance that automatically scaffold successful structures, improving performance by up to 66.7% on complex problems. By establishing a shared vocabulary between cognitive science and LLM research, our framework enables systematic diagnosis of reasoning failures and principled development of models that reason through robust cognitive mechanisms rather than spurious shortcuts, while providing tools to test theories of human cognition at scale.
A Bayesian Model for Multi-stage Censoring
Sadhuka, Shuvom, Lin, Sophia, Berger, Bonnie, Pierson, Emma
Many sequential decision settings in healthcare feature funnel structures characterized by a series of stages, such as screenings or evaluations, where the number of patients who advance to each stage progressively decreases and decisions become increasingly costly. For example, an oncologist may first conduct a breast exam, followed by a mammogram for patients with concerning exams, followed by a biopsy for patients with concerning mammograms. A key challenge is that the ground truth outcome, such as the biopsy result, is only revealed at the end of this funnel. The selective censoring of the ground truth can introduce statistical biases in risk estimation, especially in underserved patient groups, whose outcomes are more frequently censored. We develop a Bayesian model for funnel decision structures, drawing from prior work on selective labels and censoring. We first show in synthetic settings that our model is able to recover the true parameters and predict outcomes for censored patients more accurately than baselines. We then apply our model to a dataset of emergency department visits, where in-hospital mortality is observed only for those who are admitted to either the hospital or ICU. We find that there are gender-based differences in hospital and ICU admissions. In particular, our model estimates that the mortality risk threshold to admit women to the ICU is higher for women (5.1%) than for men (4.5%).
RELEAP: Reinforcement-Enhanced Label-Efficient Active Phenotyping for Electronic Health Records
Yang, Yang, Pollak, Kathryn I., Chakraborty, Bibhas, Liu, Molei, Zhou, Doudou, Hong, Chuan
Objective: Electronic health record (EHR) phenotyping often relies on noisy proxy labels, which undermine the reliability of downstream risk prediction. Active learning can reduce annotation costs, but most rely on fixed heuristics and do not ensure that phenotype refinement improves prediction performance. Our goal was to develop a framework that directly uses downstream prediction performance as feedback to guide phenotype correction and sample selection under constrained labeling budgets. Materials and Methods: We propose Reinforcement-Enhanced Label-Efficient Active Phenotyping (RELEAP), a reinforcement learning-based active learning framework. RELEAP adaptively integrates multiple querying strategies and, unlike prior methods, updates its policy based on feedback from downstream models. We evaluated RELEAP on a de-identified Duke University Health System (DUHS) cohort (2014-2024) for incident lung cancer risk prediction, using logistic regression and penalized Cox survival models. Performance was benchmarked against noisy-label baselines and single-strategy active learning. Results: RELEAP consistently outperformed all baselines. Logistic AUC increased from 0.774 to 0.805 and survival C-index from 0.718 to 0.752. Using downstream performance as feedback, RELEAP produced smoother and more stable gains than heuristic methods under the same labeling budget. Discussion: By linking phenotype refinement to prediction outcomes, RELEAP learns which samples most improve downstream discrimination and calibration, offering a more principled alternative to fixed active learning rules. Conclusion: RELEAP optimizes phenotype correction through downstream feedback, offering a scalable, label-efficient paradigm that reduces manual chart review and enhances the reliability of EHR-based risk prediction.
Multimodal Generative Flows for LHC Jets
Faroughy, Darius A., Opper, Manfred, Ojeda, Cesar
Generative modeling of high-energy collisions at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) offers a data-driven route to simulations, anomaly detection, among other applications. A central challenge lies in the hybrid nature of particle-cloud data: each particle carries continuous kinematic features and discrete quantum numbers such as charge and flavor. We introduce a transformer-based multimodal flow that extends flow-matching with a continuous-time Markov jump bridge to jointly model LHC jets with both modalities. Trained on CMS Open Data, our model can generate high fidelity jets with realistic kinematics, jet substructure and flavor composition.
Communicating Plans, Not Percepts: Scalable Multi-Agent Coordination with Embodied World Models
Hill, Brennen A., Wei, Mant Koh En, Jishnuanandh, Thangavel
Robust coordination is critical for effective decision-making in multi-agent systems, especially under partial observability. A central question in Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) is whether to engineer communication protocols or learn them end-to-end. We investigate this dichotomy using embodied world models. We propose and compare two communication strategies for a cooperative task-allocation problem. The first, Learned Direct Communication (LDC), learns a protocol end-to-end. The second, Intention Communication, uses an engineered inductive bias: a compact, learned world model, the Imagined Trajectory Generation Module (ITGM), which uses the agent's own policy to simulate future states. A Message Generation Network (MGN) then compresses this plan into a message. We evaluate these approaches on goal-directed interaction in a grid world, a canonical abstraction for embodied AI problems, while scaling environmental complexity. Our experiments reveal that while emergent communication is viable in simple settings, the engineered, world model-based approach shows superior performance, sample efficiency, and scalability as complexity increases. These findings advocate for integrating structured, predictive models into MARL agents to enable active, goal-driven coordination.