Event occurrence is not only subject to the environmental changes, but is also facilitated by the events that have occurred in a system. Here, we develop a method for estimating such extrinsic and intrinsic factors from a single series of event-occurrence times. The analysis is performed using a model that combines the inhomogeneous Poisson process and the Hawkes process, which represent exogenous fluctuations and endogenous chain-reaction mechanisms, respectively. The model is fit to a given dataset by minimizing the free energy, for which statistical physics and a path-integral method are utilized. Because the process of event occurrence is stochastic, parameter estimation is inevitably accompanied by errors, and it can ultimately occur that exogenous and endogenous factors cannot be captured even with the best estimator. We obtained four regimes categorized according to whether respective factors are detected. By applying the analytical method to real time series of debate in a social-networking service, we have observed that the estimated exogenous and endogenous factors are close to the first comments and the follow-up comments, respectively. This method is general and applicable to a variety of data, and we have provided an application program, by which anyone can analyze any series of event times.

GANs for time series data often use sliding windows or self-attention to capture underlying time dependencies. While these techniques have no clear theoretical justification, they are successful in significantly reducing the discriminator size, speeding up the training process, and improving the generation quality. In this paper, we provide both theoretical foundations and a practical framework of GANs for high-dimensional distributions with conditional independence structure captured by a Bayesian network, such as time series data. We prove that several probability divergences satisfy subadditivity properties with respect to the neighborhoods of the Bayes-net graph, providing an upper bound on the distance between two Bayes-nets by the sum of (local) distances between their marginals on every neighborhood of the graph. This leads to our proposed Subadditive GAN framework that uses a set of simple discriminators on the neighborhoods of the Bayes-net, rather than a giant discriminator on the entire network, providing significant statistical and computational benefits. We show that several probability distances including Jensen-Shannon, Total Variation, and Wasserstein, have subadditivity or generalized subadditivity. Moreover, we prove that Integral Probability Metrics (IPMs), which encompass commonly-used loss functions in GANs, also enjoy a notion of subadditivity under some mild conditions. Furthermore, we prove that nearly all f-divergences satisfy local subadditivity in which subadditivity holds when the distributions are relatively close. Our experiments on synthetic as well as real-world datasets verify the proposed theory and the benefits of subadditive GANs.

Artificial intelligence has been applied in wildfire science and management since the 1990s, with early applications including neural networks and expert systems. Since then the field has rapidly progressed congruently with the wide adoption of machine learning (ML) in the environmental sciences. Here, we present a scoping review of ML in wildfire science and management. Our objective is to improve awareness of ML among wildfire scientists and managers, as well as illustrate the challenging range of problems in wildfire science available to data scientists. We first present an overview of popular ML approaches used in wildfire science to date, and then review their use in wildfire science within six problem domains: 1) fuels characterization, fire detection, and mapping; 2) fire weather and climate change; 3) fire occurrence, susceptibility, and risk; 4) fire behavior prediction; 5) fire effects; and 6) fire management. We also discuss the advantages and limitations of various ML approaches and identify opportunities for future advances in wildfire science and management within a data science context. We identified 298 relevant publications, where the most frequently used ML methods included random forests, MaxEnt, artificial neural networks, decision trees, support vector machines, and genetic algorithms. There exists opportunities to apply more current ML methods (e.g., deep learning and agent based learning) in wildfire science. However, despite the ability of ML models to learn on their own, expertise in wildfire science is necessary to ensure realistic modelling of fire processes across multiple scales, while the complexity of some ML methods requires sophisticated knowledge for their application. Finally, we stress that the wildfire research and management community plays an active role in providing relevant, high quality data for use by practitioners of ML methods.

We study the Safe Reinforcement Learning (SRL) problem using the Constrained Markov Decision Process (CMDP) formulation in which an agent aims to maximize the expected total reward subject to a safety constraint on the expected total value of a criterion function (e.g., utility). We focus on an episodic setting with the function approximation where the reward and criterion functions and the Markov transition kernels all have a linear structure but do not impose any additional assumptions on the sampling model. Designing SRL algorithms with provable computational and statistical efficiency is particularly challenging under this setting because of the need to incorporate both the safety constraint and the function approximation into the fundamental exploitation/exploration tradeoff. To this end, we present an {O}ptimistic {P}rimal-{D}ual Proximal Policy {OP}timization (OPDOP) algorithm where the value function is estimated by combining the least-squares policy evaluation and an additional bonus term for safe exploration. We prove that the proposed algorithm achieves an O(d^{1.5}H^{3.5}\sqrt{T}) regret and an O(d^{1.5}H^{3.5}\sqrt{T}) constraint violation, where d is the dimension of the feature mapping, H is the horizon of each episode, and T is the total number of steps. We establish these bounds under the following two settings: (i) Both the reward and criterion functions can change adversarially but are revealed entirely after each episode. (ii) The reward/criterion functions are fixed but the feedback after each episode is bandit. Our bounds depend on the capacity of the state space only through the dimension of the feature mapping and thus our results hold even when the number of states goes to infinity. To the best of our knowledge, we provide the first provably efficient policy optimization algorithm for CMDPs with safe exploration.

We consider the problem of learning the level set for which a noisy black-box function exceeds a given threshold. To efficiently reconstruct the level set, we investigate Gaussian process (GP) metamodels. Our focus is on strongly stochastic samplers, in particular with heavy-tailed simulation noise and low signal-to-noise ratio. To guard against noise misspecification, we assess the performance of three variants: (i) GPs with Student-$t$ observations; (ii) Student-$t$ processes (TPs); and (iii) classification GPs modeling the sign of the response. In conjunction with these metamodels, we analyze several acquisition functions for guiding the sequential experimental designs, extending existing stepwise uncertainty reduction criteria to the stochastic contour-finding context. This also motivates our development of (approximate) updating formulas to efficiently compute such acquisition functions. Our schemes are benchmarked by using a variety of synthetic experiments in 1--6 dimensions. We also consider an application of level set estimation for determining the optimal exercise policy of Bermudan options in finance.

Gradient Langevin dynamics (GLD) and stochastic GLD (SGLD) have attracted considerable attention lately, as a way to provide convergence guarantees in a non-convex setting. However, the known rates grow exponentially with the dimension of the space. In this work, we provide a convergence analysis of GLD and SGLD when the optimization space is an infinite dimensional Hilbert space. More precisely, we derive non-asymptotic, dimension-free convergence rates for GLD/SGLD when performing regularized non-convex optimization in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. Amongst others, the convergence analysis relies on the properties of a stochastic differential equation, its discrete time Galerkin approximation and the geometric ergodicity of the associated Markov chains.

Quantum computing (QC) and deep learning techniques have attracted widespread attention in the recent years. This paper proposes QC-based deep learning methods for fault diagnosis that exploit their unique capabilities to overcome the computational challenges faced by conventional data-driven approaches performed on classical computers. Deep belief networks are integrated into the proposed fault diagnosis model and are used to extract features at different levels for normal and faulty process operations. The QC-based fault diagnosis model uses a quantum computing assisted generative training process followed by discriminative training to address the shortcomings of classical algorithms. To demonstrate its applicability and efficiency, the proposed fault diagnosis method is applied to process monitoring of continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) and Tennessee Eastman (TE) process. The proposed QC-based deep learning approach enjoys superior fault detection and diagnosis performance with obtained average fault detection rates of 79.2% and 99.39% for CSTR and TE process, respectively.

A large portion of passenger requests is reportedly unserviced, partially due to vacant for-hire drivers' cruising behavior during the passenger seeking process. This paper aims to model the multi-driver repositioning task through a mean field multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) approach that captures competition among multiple agents. Because the direct application of MARL to the multi-driver system under a given reward mechanism will likely yield a suboptimal equilibrium due to the selfishness of drivers, this study proposes an reward design scheme with which a more desired equilibrium can be reached. To effectively solve the bilevel optimization problem with upper level as the reward design and the lower level as a multi-agent system, a Bayesian optimization (BO) algorithm is adopted to speed up the learning process. We then apply the bilevel optimization model to two case studies, namely, e-hailing driver repositioning under service charge and multiclass taxi driver repositioning under NYC congestion pricing. In the first case study, the model is validated by the agreement between the derived optimal control from BO and that from an analytical solution. With a simple piecewise linear service charge, the objective of the e-hailing platform can be increased by 4.0%. In the second case study, an optimal toll charge of $5.1 is solved using BO, which improves the objective of city planners by 7.9%, compared to that without any toll charge. Under this optimal toll charge, the number of taxis in the NYC central business district is decreased, indicating a better traffic condition, without substantially increasing the crowdedness of the subway system.

Tumor segmentation in oncological PET images is challenging, a major reason being the partial-volume effects that arise from low system resolution and a finite pixel size. The latter results in pixels containing more than one region, also referred to as tissue-fraction effects. Conventional classification-based segmentation approaches are inherently limited in accounting for the tissue-fraction effects. To address this limitation, we pose the segmentation task as an estimation problem. We propose a Bayesian method that estimates the posterior mean of the tumorfraction area within each pixel and uses these estimates to define the segmented tumor boundary. The method was implemented using an autoencoder. Quantitative evaluation of the method was performed using realistic simulation studies conducted in the context of segmenting the primary tumor in PET images of patients with lung cancer. For these studies, a framework was developed to generate clinically realistic simulated PET images. Realism of these images was quantitatively confirmed using a two-alternative-forced-choice study by six trained readers with expertise in reading PET scans. The evaluation studies demonstrated that the proposed segmentation method was accurate, significantly outperformed widely used conventional methods on the tasks of tumor segmentation and estimation of tumor-fraction areas, was relatively insensitive to partial-volume effects, and reliably estimated the ground-truth tumor boundaries. Further, these results were obtained across different clinical-scanner configurations. This proof-of-concept study demonstrates the efficacy of an estimation-based approach to PET segmentation.