Prediction is a classic challenge in spatial statistics and the inclusion of spatial covariates can greatly improve predictive performance when incorporated into a model with latent spatial effects. It is desirable to develop flexible regression models that allow for nonlinearities and interactions in the covariate structure. Machine learning models have been suggested in the spatial context, allowing for spatial dependence in the residuals, but fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates. In this paper, we investigate a novel combination of a Gaussian process spatial model and a Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART) model. The computational burden of the approach is reduced by combining Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) technique. We study the performance of the method via simulations and use the model to predict anthropometric responses, collected via household cluster samples in Kenya.

Offline multi-agent reinforcement learning is challenging due to the coupling effect of both distribution shift issue common in offline setting and the high dimension issue common in multi-agent setting, making the action out-of-distribution (OOD) and value overestimation phenomenon excessively severe. To mitigate this problem, we propose a novel multi-agent offline RL algorithm, named CounterFactual Conservative Q-Learning (CFCQL) to conduct conservative value estimation. Rather than regarding all the agents as a high dimensional single one and directly applying single agent methods to it, CFCQL calculates conservative regularization for each agent separately in a counterfactual way and then linearly combines them to realize an overall conservative value estimation. We prove that it still enjoys the underestimation property and the performance guarantee as those single agent conservative methods do, but the induced regularization and safe policy improvement bound are independent of the agent number, which is therefore theoretically superior to the direct treatment referred to above, especially when the agent number is large. We further conduct experiments on four environments including both discrete and continuous action settings on both existing and our man-made datasets, demonstrating that CFCQL outperforms existing methods on most datasets and even with a remarkable margin on some of them.

Being able to harness the power of large datasets for developing cooperative multi-agent controllers promises to unlock enormous value for real-world applications. Many important industrial systems are multi-agent in nature and are difficult to model using bespoke simulators. However, in industry, distributed processes can often be recorded during operation, and large quantities of demonstrative data stored. Offline multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) provides a promising paradigm for building effective decentralised controllers from such datasets. However, offline MARL is still in its infancy and therefore lacks standardised benchmark datasets and baselines typically found in more mature subfields of reinforcement learning (RL). These deficiencies make it difficult for the community to sensibly measure progress. In this work, we aim to fill this gap by releasing off-the-grid MARL (OG-MARL): a growing repository of high-quality datasets with baselines for cooperative offline MARL research. Our datasets provide settings that are characteristic of real-world systems, including complex environment dynamics, heterogeneous agents, non-stationarity, many agents, partial observability, suboptimality, sparse rewards and demonstrated coordination. For each setting, we provide a range of different dataset types (e.g. Good, Medium, Poor, and Replay) and profile the composition of experiences for each dataset. We hope that OG-MARL will serve the community as a reliable source of datasets and help drive progress, while also providing an accessible entry point for researchers new to the field.

Offline reinforcement learning is important in domains such as medicine, economics, and e-commerce where online experimentation is costly, dangerous or unethical, and where the true model is unknown. However, most methods assume all covariates used in the behavior policy's action decisions are observed. Though this assumption, sequential ignorability/unconfoundedness, likely does not hold in observational data, most of the data that accounts for selection into treatment may be observed, motivating sensitivity analysis. We study robust policy evaluation and policy optimization in the presence of sequentially-exogenous unobserved confounders under a sensitivity model. We propose and analyze orthogonalized robust fitted-Q-iteration that uses closed-form solutions of the robust Bellman operator to derive a loss minimization problem for the robust Q function, and adds a bias-correction to quantile estimation. Our algorithm enjoys the computational ease of fitted-Q-iteration and statistical improvements (reduced dependence on quantile estimation error) from orthogonalization. We provide sample complexity bounds, insights, and show effectiveness both in simulations and on real-world longitudinal healthcare data of treating sepsis. In particular, our model of sequential unobserved confounders yields an online Markov decision process, rather than partially observed Markov decision process: we illustrate how this can enable warm-starting optimistic reinforcement learning algorithms with valid robust bounds from observational data.

Teaching physical skills to humans requires one-on-one interaction between the teacher and the learner. With a shortage of human teachers, such a teaching mode faces the challenge of scaling up. Robots, with their replicable nature and physical capabilities, offer a solution. In this work, we present TeachingBot, a robotic system designed for teaching handwriting to human learners. We tackle two primary challenges in this teaching task: the adaptation to each learner's unique style and the creation of an engaging learning experience. TeachingBot captures the learner's style using a probabilistic learning approach based on the learner's handwriting. Then, based on the learned style, it provides physical guidance to human learners with variable impedance to make the learning experience engaging. Results from human-subject experiments based on 15 human subjects support the effectiveness of TeachingBot, demonstrating improved human learning outcomes compared to baseline methods. Additionally, we illustrate how TeachingBot customizes its teaching approach for individual learners, leading to enhanced overall engagement and effectiveness.

In many branches of engineering, Banach contraction mapping theorem is employed to establish the convergence of certain deterministic algorithms. Randomized versions of these algorithms have been developed that have proved useful in data-driven problems. In a class of randomized algorithms, in each iteration, the contraction map is approximated with an operator that uses independent and identically distributed samples of certain random variables. This leads to iterated random operators acting on an initial point in a complete metric space, and it generates a Markov chain. In this paper, we develop a new stochastic dominance based proof technique, called probabilistic contraction analysis, for establishing the convergence in probability of Markov chains generated by such iterated random operators in certain limiting regime. The methods developed in this paper provides a general framework for understanding convergence of a wide variety of Monte Carlo methods in which contractive property is present. We apply the convergence result to conclude the convergence of fitted value iteration and fitted relative value iteration in continuous state and continuous action Markov decision problems as representative applications of the general framework developed here.

Reinforcement learning is a powerful technique for learning from trial and error, but it often requires a large number of interactions to achieve good performance. In some domains, such as sparse-reward tasks, an oracle that can provide useful feedback or guidance to the agent during the learning process is really of great importance. However, querying the oracle too frequently may be costly or impractical, and the oracle may not always have a clear answer for every situation. Therefore, we propose a novel method for interacting with the oracle in a selective and efficient way, using a retrieval-based approach. We assume that the interaction can be modeled as a sequence of templated questions and answers, and that there is a large corpus of previous interactions available. We use a neural network to encode the current state of the agent and the oracle, and retrieve the most relevant question from the corpus to ask the oracle. We then use the oracle's answer to update the agent's policy and value function. We evaluate our method on an object manipulation task. We show that our method can significantly improve the efficiency of RL by reducing the number of interactions needed to reach a certain level of performance, compared to baselines that do not use the oracle or use it in a naive way.

We investigate the approximation efficiency of score functions by deep neural networks in diffusion-based generative modeling. While existing approximation theories utilize the smoothness of score functions, they suffer from the curse of dimensionality for intrinsically high-dimensional data. This limitation is pronounced in graphical models such as Markov random fields, common for image distributions, where the approximation efficiency of score functions remains unestablished. To address this, we observe score functions can often be well-approximated in graphical models through variational inference denoising algorithms. Furthermore, these algorithms are amenable to efficient neural network representation. We demonstrate this in examples of graphical models, including Ising models, conditional Ising models, restricted Boltzmann machines, and sparse encoding models. Combined with off-the-shelf discretization error bounds for diffusion-based sampling, we provide an efficient sample complexity bound for diffusion-based generative modeling when the score function is learned by deep neural networks.

This paper introduces a novel backup strategy for Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) designed for highly stochastic and partially observable Markov decision processes. We adopt a probabilistic approach, modeling both value and action-value nodes as Gaussian distributions. We introduce a novel backup operator that computes value nodes as the Wasserstein barycenter of their action-value children nodes; thus, propagating the uncertainty of the estimate across the tree to the root node. We study our novel backup operator when using a novel combination of $L^1$-Wasserstein barycenter with $\alpha$-divergence, by drawing a notable connection to the generalized mean backup operator. We complement our probabilistic backup operator with two sampling strategies, based on optimistic selection and Thompson sampling, obtaining our Wasserstein MCTS algorithm. We provide theoretical guarantees of asymptotic convergence to the optimal policy, and an empirical evaluation on several stochastic and partially observable environments, where our approach outperforms well-known related baselines.

Decision making under uncertainty is at the heart of any autonomous system acting with imperfect information. The cost of solving the decision making problem is exponential in the action and observation spaces, thus rendering it unfeasible for many online systems. This paper introduces a novel approach to efficient decision-making, by partitioning the high-dimensional observation space. Using the partitioned observation space, we formulate analytical bounds on the expected information-theoretic reward, for general belief distributions. These bounds are then used to plan efficiently while keeping performance guarantees. We show that the bounds are adaptive, computationally efficient, and that they converge to the original solution. We extend the partitioning paradigm and present a hierarchy of partitioned spaces that allows greater efficiency in planning. We then propose a specific variant of these bounds for Gaussian beliefs and show a theoretical performance improvement of at least a factor of 4. Finally, we compare our novel method to other state of the art algorithms in active SLAM scenarios, in simulation and in real experiments. In both cases we show a significant speed-up in planning with performance guarantees.