Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Factorial Hidden Markov Models (FHMMs) are powerful models for sequential data but they do not scale well with long sequences. We propose a scalable inference and learning algorithm for FHMMs that draws on ideas from the stochastic variational inference, neural network and copula literatures. Unlike existing approaches, the proposed algorithm requires no message passing procedure among latent variables and can be distributed to a network of computers to speed up learning. Our experiments corroborate that the proposed algorithm does not introduce further approximation bias compared to the proven structured mean-field algorithm, and achieves better performance with long sequences and large FHMMs.

You are a robot and you live in a Markov decision process (MDP) with a finite or an infinite number of transitions from state-action to next states. You got brains and so you plan before you act. Luckily, your roboparents equipped you with a generative model to do some Monte-Carlo planning. The world is waiting for you and you have no time to waste. You want your planning to be efficient.

Boltzmann machines are able to learn highly complex, multimodal, structured and multiscale real-world data distributions. Parameters of the model are usually learned by minimizing the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence from training samples to the learned model. We propose in this work a novel approach for Boltzmann machine training which assumes that a meaningful metric between observations is known. This metric between observations can then be used to define the Wasserstein distance between the distribution induced by the Boltzmann machine on the one hand, and that given by the training sample on the other hand. We derive a gradient of that distance with respect to the model parameters. Minimization of this new objective leads to generative models with different statistical properties. We demonstrate their practical potential on data completion and denoising, for which the metric between observations plays a crucial role.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Matching users to the right items at the right time is a fundamental task in recommendation systems. As users interact with different items over time, users' and items' feature may evolve and co-evolve over time. Traditional models based on static latent features or discretizing time into epochs can become ineffective for capturing the fine-grained temporal dynamics in the user-item interactions. We propose a coevolutionary latent feature process model that accurately captures the coevolving nature of users' and items' feature. To learn parameters, we design an efficient convex optimization algorithm with a novel low rank space sharing constraints. Extensive experiments on diverse real-world datasets demonstrate significant improvements in user behavior prediction compared to state-of-the-arts.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

We develop a scalable, computationally efficient method for the task of energy disaggregation for home appliance monitoring. In this problem the goal is to estimate the energy consumption of each appliance over time based on the total energy-consumption signal of a household. The current state of the art is to model the problem as inference in factorial HMMs, and use quadratic programming to find an approximate solution to the resulting quadratic integer program. Here we take a more principled approach, better suited to integer programming problems, and find an approximate optimum by combining convex semidefinite relaxations randomized rounding, as well as a scalable ADMM method that exploits the special structure of the resulting semidefinite program. Simulation results both in synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of our method.

Two seemingly contradictory theories attempt to explain how humans move to intercept an airborne ball. One theory posits that humans predict the ball trajectory to optimally plan future actions; the other claims that, instead of performing such complicated computations, humans employ heuristics to reactively choose appropriate actions based on immediate visual feedback. In this paper, we show that interception strategies appearing to be heuristics can be understood as computational solutions to the optimal control problem faced by a ball-catching agent acting under uncertainty. Modeling catching as a continuous partially observable Markov decision process and employing stochastic optimal control theory, we discover that the four main heuristics described in the literature are optimal solutions if the catcher has sufficient time to continuously visually track the ball. Specifically, by varying model parameters such as noise, time to ground contact, and perceptual latency, we show that different strategies arise under different circumstances. The catcher's policy switches between generating reactive and predictive behavior based on the ratio of system to observation noise and the ratio between reaction time and task duration. Thus, we provide a rational account of human ball-catching behavior and a unifying explanation for seemingly contradictory theories of target interception on the basis of stochastic optimal control.