Optimal decision-making presents a significant challenge for autonomous systems operating in uncertain, stochastic and time-varying environments. Environmental variability over time can significantly impact the system's optimal decision making strategy for mission completion. To model such environments, our work combines the previous notion of Time-Varying Markov Decision Processes (TVMDP) with partial observability and introduces Time-Varying Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (TV-POMDP). We propose a two-pronged approach to accurately estimate and plan within the TV-POMDP: 1) Memory Prioritized State Estimation (MPSE), which leverages weighted memory to provide more accurate time-varying transition estimates; and 2) an MPSE-integrated planning strategy that optimizes long-term rewards while accounting for temporal constraint. We validate the proposed framework and algorithms using simulations and hardware, with robots exploring a partially observable, time-varying environments. Our results demonstrate superior performance over standard methods, highlighting the framework's effectiveness in stochastic, uncertain, time-varying domains.

The impact of randomness on model training is poorly understood. How do differences in data order and initialization actually manifest in the model, such that some training runs outperform others or converge faster? Furthermore, how can we interpret the resulting training dynamics and the phase transitions that characterize different trajectories? To understand the effect of randomness on the dynamics and outcomes of neural network training, we train models multiple times with different random seeds and compute a variety of metrics throughout training, such as the $L_2$ norm, mean, and variance of the neural network's weights. We then fit a hidden Markov model (HMM) over the resulting sequences of metrics. The HMM represents training as a stochastic process of transitions between latent states, providing an intuitive overview of significant changes during training. Using our method, we produce a low-dimensional, discrete representation of training dynamics on grokking tasks, image classification, and masked language modeling. We use the HMM representation to study phase transitions and identify latent "detour" states that slow down convergence.

This paper addresses the importance of Knowledge Structure (KS) and Knowledge Tracing (KT) in improving the recommendation of educational content in intelligent tutoring systems. The KS represents the relations between different Knowledge Components (KCs), while KT predicts a learner's success based on her past history. The contribution of this research includes proposing a KT model that incorporates the KS as a learnable parameter, enabling the discovery of the underlying KS from learner trajectories. The quality of the uncovered KS is assessed by using it to recommend content and evaluating the recommendation algorithm with simulated students.

In software engineering, deep learning models are increasingly deployed for critical tasks such as bug detection and code review. However, overfitting remains a challenge that affects the quality, reliability, and trustworthiness of software systems that utilize deep learning models. Overfitting can be (1) prevented (e.g., using dropout or early stopping) or (2) detected in a trained model (e.g., using correlation-based approaches). Both overfitting detection and prevention approaches that are currently used have constraints (e.g., requiring modification of the model structure, and high computing resources). In this paper, we propose a simple, yet powerful approach that can both detect and prevent overfitting based on the training history (i.e., validation losses). Our approach first trains a time series classifier on training histories of overfit models. This classifier is then used to detect if a trained model is overfit. In addition, our trained classifier can be used to prevent overfitting by identifying the optimal point to stop a model's training. We evaluate our approach on its ability to identify and prevent overfitting in real-world samples. We compare our approach against correlation-based detection approaches and the most commonly used prevention approach (i.e., early stopping). Our approach achieves an F1 score of 0.91 which is at least 5% higher than the current best-performing non-intrusive overfitting detection approach. Furthermore, our approach can stop training to avoid overfitting at least 32% of the times earlier than early stopping and has the same or a better rate of returning the best model.

This paper considers the sequential design of remedial control actions in response to system anomalies for the ultimate objective of preventing blackouts. A physics-guided reinforcement learning (RL) framework is designed to identify effective sequences of real-time remedial look-ahead decisions accounting for the long-term impact on the system's stability. The paper considers a space of control actions that involve both discrete-valued transmission line-switching decisions (line reconnections and removals) and continuous-valued generator adjustments. To identify an effective blackout mitigation policy, a physics-guided approach is designed that uses power-flow sensitivity factors associated with the power transmission network to guide the RL exploration during agent training. Comprehensive empirical evaluations using the open-source Grid2Op platform demonstrate the notable advantages of incorporating physical signals into RL decisions, establishing the gains of the proposed physics-guided approach compared to its black box counterparts. One important observation is that strategically~\emph{removing} transmission lines, in conjunction with multiple real-time generator adjustments, often renders effective long-term decisions that are likely to prevent or delay blackouts.

Neuronal morphology is essential for studying brain functioning and understanding neurodegenerative disorders. As the acquiring of real-world morphology data is expensive, computational approaches especially learning-based ones e.g. MorphVAE for morphology generation were recently studied, which are often conducted in a way of randomly augmenting a given authentic morphology to achieve plausibility. Under such a setting, this paper proposes \textbf{MorphGrower} which aims to generate more plausible morphology samples by mimicking the natural growth mechanism instead of a one-shot treatment as done in MorphVAE. Specifically, MorphGrower generates morphologies layer by layer synchronously and chooses a pair of sibling branches as the basic generation block, and the generation of each layer is conditioned on the morphological structure of previous layers and then generate morphologies via a conditional variational autoencoder with spherical latent space. Extensive experimental results on four real-world datasets demonstrate that MorphGrower outperforms MorphVAE by a notable margin. Our code will be publicly available to facilitate future research.

Empirical process theory for i.i.d. observations has emerged as a ubiquitous tool for understanding the generalization properties of various statistical problems. However, in many applications where the data exhibit temporal dependencies (e.g., in finance, medical imaging, weather forecasting etc.), the corresponding empirical processes are much less understood. Motivated by this observation, we present a general bound on the expected supremum of empirical processes under standard $\beta/\rho$-mixing assumptions. Unlike most prior work, our results cover both the long and the short-range regimes of dependence. Our main result shows that a non-trivial trade-off between the complexity of the underlying function class and the dependence among the observations characterizes the learning rate in a large class of nonparametric problems. This trade-off reveals a new phenomenon, namely that even under long-range dependence, it is possible to attain the same rates as in the i.i.d. setting, provided the underlying function class is complex enough. We demonstrate the practical implications of our findings by analyzing various statistical estimators in both fixed and growing dimensions. Our main examples include a comprehensive case study of generalization error bounds in nonparametric regression over smoothness classes in fixed as well as growing dimension using neural nets, shape-restricted multivariate convex regression, estimating the optimal transport (Wasserstein) distance between two probability distributions, and classification under the Mammen-Tsybakov margin condition -- all under appropriate mixing assumptions. In the process, we also develop bounds on $L_r$ ($1\le r\le 2$)-localized empirical processes with dependent observations, which we then leverage to get faster rates for (a) tuning-free adaptation, and (b) set-structured learning problems.

We study a family of distributed stochastic optimization algorithms where gradients are sampled by a token traversing a network of agents in random-walk fashion. Typically, these random-walks are chosen to be Markov chains that asymptotically sample from a desired target distribution, and play a critical role in the convergence of the optimization iterates. In this paper, we take a novel approach by replacing the standard linear Markovian token by one which follows a nonlinear Markov chain - namely the Self-Repellent Radom Walk (SRRW). Defined for any given 'base' Markov chain, the SRRW, parameterized by a positive scalar {\alpha}, is less likely to transition to states that were highly visited in the past, thus the name. In the context of MCMC sampling on a graph, a recent breakthrough in Doshi et al. (2023) shows that the SRRW achieves O(1/{\alpha}) decrease in the asymptotic variance for sampling. We propose the use of a 'generalized' version of the SRRW to drive token algorithms for distributed stochastic optimization in the form of stochastic approximation, termed SA-SRRW. We prove that the optimization iterate errors of the resulting SA-SRRW converge to zero almost surely and prove a central limit theorem, deriving the explicit form of the resulting asymptotic covariance matrix corresponding to iterate errors. This asymptotic covariance is always smaller than that of an algorithm driven by the base Markov chain and decreases at rate O(1/{\alpha}^2) - the performance benefit of using SRRW thereby amplified in the stochastic optimization context. Empirical results support our theoretical findings.

Further, we propose a novel inference algorithm and establish theoretical properties for a state-of-the-art NeSy system that are crucial for learning. Our proposed learning framework builds upon NeSy energy-based models (NeSy-EBMs) (Pryor et al., 2023), a general class of NeSy systems that encompasses a variety of existing NeSy methods, including DeepProblog (Manhaeve et al., 2018; 2021), SATNet (Wang et al., 2019), logic tensor networks (Badreddine et al., 2022), and NeuPSL (Pryor et al., 2023). NeSy-EBMs use neural network outputs to parameterize an energy function and formulate an inference problem that may be non-smooth and constrained. Thus, predictions are not guaranteed to be a function of the inputs and parameters with an explicit form or to be differentiable, and traditional deep learning techniques are not directly applicable. We therefore equivalently formulate NeSy-EBM learning as a bilevel problem and, to support smooth first-order gradient-based optimization, propose a smoothing strategy that is novel to NeSy learning. Specifically, we replace the constrained NeSy energy function with its Moreau envelope. The augmented Lagrangian method for equality-constrained minimization is then applied with the new formulation.

Two-timescale stochastic approximation (TTSA) is among the most general frameworks for iterative stochastic algorithms. This includes well-known stochastic optimization methods such as SGD variants and those designed for bilevel or minimax problems, as well as reinforcement learning like the family of gradient-based temporal difference (GTD) algorithms. In this paper, we conduct an in-depth asymptotic analysis of TTSA under controlled Markovian noise via central limit theorem (CLT), uncovering the coupled dynamics of TTSA influenced by the underlying Markov chain, which has not been addressed by previous CLT results of TTSA only with Martingale difference noise. Building upon our CLT, we expand its application horizon of efficient sampling strategies from vanilla SGD to a wider TTSA context in distributed learning, thus broadening the scope of Hu et al. (2022). In addition, we leverage our CLT result to deduce the statistical properties of GTD algorithms with nonlinear function approximation using Markovian samples and show their identical asymptotic performance, a perspective not evident from current finite-time bounds.