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 Markov Models


From Generalization Analysis to Optimization Designs for State Space Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A State Space Model (SSM) is a foundation model in time series analysis, which has recently been shown as an alternative to transformers in sequence modeling. In this paper, we theoretically study the generalization of SSMs and propose improvements to training algorithms based on the generalization results. Specifically, we give a \textit{data-dependent} generalization bound for SSMs, showing an interplay between the SSM parameters and the temporal dependencies of the training sequences. Leveraging the generalization bound, we (1) set up a scaling rule for model initialization based on the proposed generalization measure, which significantly improves the robustness of the output value scales on SSMs to different temporal patterns in the sequence data; (2) introduce a new regularization method for training SSMs to enhance the generalization performance. Numerical results are conducted to validate our results.


Sub-goal Distillation: A Method to Improve Small Language Agents

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

While Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated significant promise as agents in interactive tasks, their substantial computational requirements and restricted number of calls constrain their practical utility, especially in long-horizon interactive tasks such as decision-making or in scenarios involving continuous ongoing tasks. To address these constraints, we propose a method for transferring the performance of an LLM with billions of parameters to a much smaller language model (770M parameters). Our approach involves constructing a hierarchical agent comprising a planning module, which learns through Knowledge Distillation from an LLM to generate sub-goals, and an execution module, which learns to accomplish these sub-goals using elementary actions. Subsequently, we utilize this annotated data to fine-tune both the planning and execution modules. Importantly, neither module relies on real-time access to an LLM during inference, significantly reducing the overall cost associated with LLM interactions to a fixed cost. In ScienceWorld, a challenging and multi-task interactive text environment, our method surpasses standard imitation learning based solely on elementary actions by 16.7% (absolute). Our analysis highlights the efficiency of our approach compared to other LLM-based methods. Recently, Large Language Models (LLMs) have found applications in various fields, including multi-task learning, decision making, answering questions, summarizing documents, translating languages, completing sentences, and serving as search assistants. The promising advantage of LLMs is attributed to their training on extensive text datasets, resulting in impressive capabilities. This prior knowledge can be leveraged for action planning to solve tasks in robotics and reinforcement learning (Huang et al., 2022b; Brohan et al., 2023; Liang et al., 2023). However, the extreme size of LLMs makes them computationally unaffordable for many applications. Consequently, there is an increasing demand to find approaches that are less computationally intensive while still capitalizing on the knowledge embedded in LLMs. One prevalent technique is the use of Knowledge Distillation (KD) (BuciluวŽ et al., 2006; Hinton et al., 2015), wherein a smaller model is trained with guidance from a larger model. Through this approach, we can leverage the knowledge in an LLM to train a more compact model with a reduced number of parameters. First, focus on the substance. Figure 1: Example of annotating an expert trajectory with sub-goals for a particular variation of task 1-4 We employ Knowledge Distillation from an LLM to train (change-the-state-of-matter-of).


MEXGEN: An Effective and Efficient Information Gain Approximation for Information Gathering Path Planning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Autonomous robots for gathering information on objects of interest has numerous real-world applications because of they improve efficiency, performance and safety. Realizing autonomy demands online planning algorithms to solve sequential decision making problems under uncertainty; because, objects of interest are often dynamic, object state, such as location is not directly observable and are obtained from noisy measurements. Such planning problems are notoriously difficult due to the combinatorial nature of predicting the future to make optimal decisions. For information theoretic planning algorithms, we develop a computationally efficient and effective approximation for the difficult problem of predicting the likely sensor measurements from uncertain belief states}. The approach more accurately predicts information gain from information gathering actions. Our theoretical analysis proves the proposed formulation achieves a lower prediction error than the current efficient-method. We demonstrate improved performance gains in radio-source tracking and localization problems using extensive simulated and field experiments with a multirotor aerial robot.


Learning Robot Soccer from Egocentric Vision with Deep Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We apply multi-agent deep reinforcement learning (RL) to train end-to-end robot soccer policies with fully onboard computation and sensing via egocentric RGB vision. This setting reflects many challenges of real-world robotics, including active perception, agile full-body control, and long-horizon planning in a dynamic, partially-observable, multi-agent domain. We rely on large-scale, simulation-based data generation to obtain complex behaviors from egocentric vision which can be successfully transferred to physical robots using low-cost sensors. To achieve adequate visual realism, our simulation combines rigid-body physics with learned, realistic rendering via multiple Neural Radiance Fields (NeRFs). We combine teacher-based multi-agent RL and cross-experiment data reuse to enable the discovery of sophisticated soccer strategies. We analyze active-perception behaviors including object tracking and ball seeking that emerge when simply optimizing perception-agnostic soccer play. The agents display equivalent levels of performance and agility as policies with access to privileged, ground-truth state. To our knowledge, this paper constitutes a first demonstration of end-to-end training for multi-agent robot soccer, mapping raw pixel observations to joint-level actions, that can be deployed in the real world. Videos of the game-play and analyses can be seen on our website https://sites.google.com/view/vision-soccer .


Millimeter Wave Radar-based Human Activity Recognition for Healthcare Monitoring Robot

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Healthcare monitoring is crucial, especially for the daily care of elderly individuals living alone. It can detect dangerous occurrences, such as falls, and provide timely alerts to save lives. Non-invasive millimeter wave (mmWave) radar-based healthcare monitoring systems using advanced human activity recognition (HAR) models have recently gained significant attention. However, they encounter challenges in handling sparse point clouds, achieving real-time continuous classification, and coping with limited monitoring ranges when statically mounted. To overcome these limitations, we propose RobHAR, a movable robot-mounted mmWave radar system with lightweight deep neural networks for real-time monitoring of human activities. Specifically, we first propose a sparse point cloud-based global embedding to learn the features of point clouds using the light-PointNet (LPN) backbone. Then, we learn the temporal pattern with a bidirectional lightweight LSTM model (BiLiLSTM). In addition, we implement a transition optimization strategy, integrating the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) with Connectionist Temporal Classification (CTC) to improve the accuracy and robustness of the continuous HAR. Our experiments on three datasets indicate that our method significantly outperforms the previous studies in both discrete and continuous HAR tasks. Finally, we deploy our system on a movable robot-mounted edge computing platform, achieving flexible healthcare monitoring in real-world scenarios.


Optimistic Regret Bounds for Online Learning in Adversarial Markov Decision Processes

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The Adversarial Markov Decision Process (AMDP) is a learning framework that deals with unknown and varying tasks in decision-making applications like robotics and recommendation systems. A major limitation of the AMDP formalism, however, is pessimistic regret analysis results in the sense that although the cost function can change from one episode to the next, the evolution in many settings is not adversarial. To address this, we introduce and study a new variant of AMDP, which aims to minimize regret while utilizing a set of cost predictors. For this setting, we develop a new policy search method that achieves a sublinear optimistic regret with high probability, that is a regret bound which gracefully degrades with the estimation power of the cost predictors. Establishing such optimistic regret bounds is nontrivial given that (i) as we demonstrate, the existing importance-weighted cost estimators cannot establish optimistic bounds, and (ii) the feedback model of AMDP is different (and more realistic) than the existing optimistic online learning works. Our result, in particular, hinges upon developing a novel optimistically biased cost estimator that leverages cost predictors and enables a high-probability regret analysis without imposing restrictive assumptions. We further discuss practical extensions of the proposed scheme and demonstrate its efficacy numerically.


IntervenGen: Interventional Data Generation for Robust and Data-Efficient Robot Imitation Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Imitation learning is a promising paradigm for training robot control policies, but these policies can suffer from distribution shift, where the conditions at evaluation time differ from those in the training data. A popular approach for increasing policy robustness to distribution shift is interactive imitation learning (i.e., DAgger and variants), where a human operator provides corrective interventions during policy rollouts. However, collecting a sufficient amount of interventions to cover the distribution of policy mistakes can be burdensome for human operators. We propose IntervenGen (I-Gen), a novel data generation system that can autonomously produce a large set of corrective interventions with rich coverage of the state space from a small number of human interventions. We apply I-Gen to 4 simulated environments and 1 physical environment with object pose estimation error and show that it can increase policy robustness by up to 39x with only 10 human interventions. Videos and more results are available at https://sites.google.com/view/intervengen2024.


Leveraging Procedural Generation for Learning Autonomous Peg-in-Hole Assembly in Space

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The ability to autonomously assemble structures is crucial for the development of future space infrastructure. However, the unpredictable conditions of space pose significant challenges for robotic systems, necessitating the development of advanced learning techniques to enable autonomous assembly. In this study, we present a novel approach for learning autonomous peg-in-hole assembly in the context of space robotics. Our focus is on enhancing the generalization and adaptability of autonomous systems through deep reinforcement learning. By integrating procedural generation and domain randomization, we train agents in a highly parallelized simulation environment across a spectrum of diverse scenarios with the aim of acquiring a robust policy. The proposed approach is evaluated using three distinct reinforcement learning algorithms to investigate the trade-offs among various paradigms. We demonstrate the adaptability of our agents to novel scenarios and assembly sequences while emphasizing the potential of leveraging advanced simulation techniques for robot learning in space. Our findings set the stage for future advancements in intelligent robotic systems capable of supporting ambitious space missions and infrastructure development beyond Earth.


Sample-efficient neural likelihood-free Bayesian inference of implicit HMMs

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Likelihood-free inference methods based on neural conditional density estimation were shown to drastically reduce the simulation burden in comparison to classical methods such as ABC. When applied in the context of any latent variable model, such as a Hidden Markov model (HMM), these methods are designed to only estimate the parameters, rather than the joint distribution of the parameters and the hidden states. Naive application of these methods to a HMM, ignoring the inference of this joint posterior distribution, will thus produce an inaccurate estimate of the posterior predictive distribution, in turn hampering the assessment of goodness-of-fit. To rectify this problem, we propose a novel, sample-efficient likelihood-free method for estimating the high-dimensional hidden states of an implicit HMM. Our approach relies on learning directly the intractable posterior distribution of the hidden states, using an autoregressive-flow, by exploiting the Markov property. Upon evaluating our approach on some implicit HMMs, we found that the quality of the estimates retrieved using our method is comparable to what can be achieved using a much more computationally expensive SMC algorithm.


Tabular and Deep Reinforcement Learning for Gittins Index

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In the realm of multi-arm bandit problems, the Gittins index policy is known to be optimal in maximizing the expected total discounted reward obtained from pulling the Markovian arms. In most realistic scenarios however, the Markovian state transition probabilities are unknown and therefore the Gittins indices cannot be computed. One can then resort to reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms that explore the state space to learn these indices while exploiting to maximize the reward collected. In this work, we propose tabular (QGI) and Deep RL (DGN) algorithms for learning the Gittins index that are based on the retirement formulation for the multi-arm bandit problem. When compared with existing RL algorithms that learn the Gittins index, our algorithms have a lower run time, require less storage space (small Q-table size in QGI and smaller replay buffer in DGN), and illustrate better empirical convergence to the Gittins index. This makes our algorithm well suited for problems with large state spaces and is a viable alternative to existing methods. As a key application, we demonstrate the use of our algorithms in minimizing the mean flowtime in a job scheduling problem when jobs are available in batches and have an unknown service time distribution. Markov decision processes (MDPs) are controlled stochastic processes where a decision maker is required to control the evolution of a Markov chain over its states space by suitably choosing actions that maximize the long-term payoffs. An interesting class of MDPs are the multi-armed bandits (MAB) where given K Markov chains (each Markov chain corresponds to a bandit arm), the decision maker is confronted with a K-tuple (state of each arm) and must choose to pull or activate exactly one arm and collect a corresponding reward.