A wide variety of model explanation approaches have been proposed in recent years, all guided by very different rationales and heuristics. In this paper, we take a new route and cast interpretability as a statistical inference problem. We propose a general deep probabilistic model designed to produce interpretable predictions. The model parameters can be learned via maximum likelihood, and the method can be adapted to any predictor network architecture and any type of prediction problem. Our method is a case of amortized interpretability models, where a neural network is used as a selector to allow for fast interpretation at inference time. Several popular interpretability methods are shown to be particular cases of regularised maximum likelihood for our general model. We propose new datasets with ground truth selection which allow for the evaluation of the features importance map. Using these datasets, we show experimentally that using multiple imputation provides more reasonable interpretations.

Despite numerous years of research into the merits and trade-offs of various model selection criteria, obtaining robust results that elucidate the behavior of cross-validation remains a challenging endeavor. In this paper, we highlight the inherent limitations of cross-validation when employed to discern the structure of a Gaussian graphical model. We provide finite-sample bounds on the probability that the Lasso estimator for the neighborhood of a node within a Gaussian graphical model, optimized using a prediction oracle, misidentifies the neighborhood. Our results pertain to both undirected and directed acyclic graphs, encompassing general, sparse covariance structures. To support our theoretical findings, we conduct an empirical investigation of this inconsistency by contrasting our outcomes with other commonly used information criteria through an extensive simulation study. Given that many algorithms designed to learn the structure of graphical models require hyperparameter selection, the precise calibration of this hyperparameter is paramount for accurately estimating the inherent structure. Consequently, our observations shed light on this widely recognized practical challenge.

Designing deep neural network classifiers that perform robustly on distributions differing from the available training data is an active area of machine learning research. However, out-of-distribution generalization for regression--the analogous problem for modeling continuous targets--remains relatively unexplored. To tackle this problem, we return to first principles and analyze how the closed-form solution for Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression is sensitive to covariate shift. We characterize the out-of-distribution risk of the OLS model in terms of the eigenspectrum decomposition of the source and target data. We then use this insight to propose a method for adapting the weights of the last layer of a pre-trained neural regression model to perform better on input data originating from a different distribution. We demonstrate how this lightweight spectral adaptation procedure can improve out-of-distribution performance for synthetic and real-world datasets.

Reliable predictive uncertainty estimation plays an important role in enabling the deployment of neural networks to safety-critical settings. A popular approach for estimating the predictive uncertainty of neural networks is to define a prior distribution over the network parameters, infer an approximate posterior distribution, and use it to make stochastic predictions. However, explicit inference over neural network parameters makes it difficult to incorporate meaningful prior information about the data-generating process into the model. In this paper, we pursue an alternative approach. Recognizing that the primary object of interest in most settings is the distribution over functions induced by the posterior distribution over neural network parameters, we frame Bayesian inference in neural networks explicitly as inferring a posterior distribution over functions and propose a scalable function-space variational inference method that allows incorporating prior information and results in reliable predictive uncertainty estimates. We show that the proposed method leads to state-of-the-art uncertainty estimation and predictive performance on a range of prediction tasks and demonstrate that it performs well on a challenging safety-critical medical diagnosis task in which reliable uncertainty estimation is essential.

Learning a graph from data is the key to taking advantage of graph signal processing tools. Most of the conventional algorithms for graph learning require complete data statistics, which might not be available in some scenarios. In this work, we aim to learn a graph from incomplete time-series observations. From another viewpoint, we consider the problem of semi-blind recovery of time-varying graph signals where the underlying graph model is unknown. We propose an algorithm based on the method of block successive upperbound minimization (BSUM), for simultaneous inference of the signal and the graph from incomplete data. Simulation results on synthetic and real time-series demonstrate the performance of the proposed method for graph learning and signal recovery.

Offline Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) is valuable in scenarios where online interaction is impractical or risky. While independent learning in MARL offers flexibility and scalability, accurately assigning credit to individual agents in offline settings poses challenges because interactions with an environment are prohibited. In this paper, we propose a new framework, namely Multi-Agent Causal Credit Assignment (MACCA), to address credit assignment in the offline MARL setting. Our approach, MACCA, characterizing the generative process as a Dynamic Bayesian Network, captures relationships between environmental variables, states, actions, and rewards. Estimating this model on offline data, MACCA can learn each agent's contribution by analyzing the causal relationship of their individual rewards, ensuring accurate and interpretable credit assignment. Additionally, the modularity of our approach allows it to seamlessly integrate with various offline MARL methods. Theoretically, we proved that under the setting of the offline dataset, the underlying causal structure and the function for generating the individual rewards of agents are identifiable, which laid the foundation for the correctness of our modeling. In our experiments, we demonstrate that MACCA not only outperforms state-of-the-art methods but also enhances performance when integrated with other backbones.

Autistic Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is a neurological disease characterized by difficulties with social interaction, communication, and repetitive activities. While its primary origin lies in genetics, early detection is crucial, and leveraging machine learning offers a promising avenue for a faster and more cost-effective diagnosis. This study employs diverse machine learning methods to identify crucial ASD traits, aiming to enhance and automate the diagnostic process. We study eight state-of-the-art classification models to determine their effectiveness in ASD detection. We evaluate the models using accuracy, precision, recall, specificity, F1-score, area under the curve (AUC), kappa, and log loss metrics to find the best classifier for these binary datasets. Among all the classification models, for the children dataset, the SVM and LR models achieve the highest accuracy of 100% and for the adult dataset, the LR model produces the highest accuracy of 97.14%. Our proposed ANN model provides the highest accuracy of 94.24% for the new combined dataset when hyperparameters are precisely tuned for each model. As almost all classification models achieve high accuracy which utilize true labels, we become interested in delving into five popular clustering algorithms to understand model behavior in scenarios without true labels. We calculate Normalized Mutual Information (NMI), Adjusted Rand Index (ARI), and Silhouette Coefficient (SC) metrics to select the best clustering models. Our evaluation finds that spectral clustering outperforms all other benchmarking clustering models in terms of NMI and ARI metrics while demonstrating comparability to the optimal SC achieved by k-means. The implemented code is available at GitHub.

Generalized Labeled Multi-Bernoulli (GLMB) densities arise in a host of multi-object system applications analogous to Gaussians in single-object filtering. However, computing the GLMB filtering density requires solving NP-hard problems. To alleviate this computational bottleneck, we develop a linear complexity Gibbs sampling framework for GLMB density computation. Specifically, we propose a tempered Gibbs sampler that exploits the structure of the GLMB filtering density to achieve an $\mathcal{O}(T(P+M))$ complexity, where $T$ is the number of iterations of the algorithm, $P$ and $M$ are the number hypothesized objects and measurements. This innovation enables the GLMB filter implementation to be reduced from an $\mathcal{O}(TP^{2}M)$ complexity to $\mathcal{O}(T(P+M+\log T)+PM)$. Moreover, the proposed framework provides the flexibility for trade-offs between tracking performance and computational load. Convergence of the proposed Gibbs sampler is established, and numerical studies are presented to validate the proposed GLMB filter implementation.

We introduce a new empirical Bayes approach for large-scale multiple linear regression. Our approach combines two key ideas: (i) the use of flexible "adaptive shrinkage" priors, which approximate the nonparametric family of scale mixture of normal distributions by a finite mixture of normal distributions; and (ii) the use of variational approximations to efficiently estimate prior hyperparameters and compute approximate posteriors. Combining these two ideas results in fast and flexible methods, with computational speed comparable to fast penalized regression methods such as the Lasso, and with competitive prediction accuracy across a wide range of scenarios. Further, we provide new results that establish conceptual connections between our empirical Bayes methods and penalized methods. Specifically, we show that the posterior mean from our method solves a penalized regression problem, with the form of the penalty function being learned from the data by directly solving an optimization problem (rather than being tuned by cross-validation). Our methods are implemented in an R package, mr.ash.alpha,

We propose a nonparametric and time-varying directed information graph (TV-DIG) framework to estimate the evolving causal structure in time series networks, thereby addressing the limitations of traditional econometric models in capturing high-dimensional, nonlinear, and time-varying interconnections among series. This framework employs an information-theoretic measure rooted in a generalized version of Granger-causality, which is applicable to both linear and nonlinear dynamics. Our framework offers advancements in measuring systemic risk and establishes meaningful connections with established econometric models, including vector autoregression and switching models. We evaluate the efficacy of our proposed model through simulation experiments and empirical analysis, reporting promising results in recovering simulated time-varying networks with nonlinear and multivariate structures. We apply this framework to identify and monitor the evolution of interconnectedness and systemic risk among major assets and industrial sectors within the financial network. We focus on cryptocurrencies' potential systemic risks to financial stability, including spillover effects on other sectors during crises like the COVID-19 pandemic and the Federal Reserve's 2020 emergency response. Our findings reveals significant, previously underrecognized pre-2020 influences of cryptocurrencies on certain financial sectors, highlighting their potential systemic risks and offering a systematic approach in tracking evolving cross-sector interactions within financial networks.