Vision-language foundation models (e.g., CLIP) have shown remarkable performance across a wide range of tasks. However, deploying these models may be unreliable when significant distribution gaps exist between the training and test data. The training-free test-time dynamic adapter (TDA) is a promising approach to address this issue by storing representative test samples to guide the classification of subsequent ones. However, TDA only naively maintains a limited number of reference samples in the cache, leading to severe test-time catastrophic forgetting when the cache is updated by dropping samples. In this paper, we propose a simple yet effective method for DistributiOnal Test-time Adaptation (Dota). Instead of naively memorizing representative test samples, Dota continually estimates the distributions of test samples, allowing the model to continually adapt to the deployment environment. The test-time posterior probabilities are then computed using the estimated distributions based on Bayes' theorem for adaptation purposes. To further enhance the adaptability on the uncertain samples, we introduce a new human-in-the-loop paradigm which identifies uncertain samples, collects human-feedback, and incorporates it into the Dota framework. Extensive experiments validate that Dota enables CLIP to continually learn, resulting in a significant improvement compared to current state-of-the-art methods.

Neural simulation-based inference (SBI) describes an emerging family of methods for Bayesian inference with intractable likelihood functions that use neural networks as surrogate models. Here we introduce sbijax, a Python package that implements a wide variety of state-of-the-art methods in neural simulation-based inference using a user-friendly programming interface. sbijax offers high-level functionality to quickly construct SBI estimators, and compute and visualize posterior distributions with only a few lines of code. In addition, the package provides functionality for conventional approximate Bayesian computation, to compute model diagnostics, and to automatically estimate summary statistics. By virtue of being entirely written in JAX, sbijax is extremely computationally efficient, allowing rapid training of neural networks and executing code automatically in parallel on both CPU and GPU.

Causal Graph Discovery (CGD) is the process of estimating the underlying probabilistic graphical model that represents joint distribution of features of a dataset. CGD-algorithms are broadly classified into two categories: (i) Constraint-based algorithms (outcome depends on conditional independence (CI) tests), (ii) Score-based algorithms (outcome depends on optimized score-function). Since, sensitive features of observational data is prone to privacy-leakage, Differential Privacy (DP) has been adopted to ensure user privacy in CGD. Adding same amount of noise in this sequential-natured estimation process affects the predictive performance of the algorithms. As initial CI tests in constraint-based algorithms and later iterations of the optimization process of score-based algorithms are crucial, they need to be more accurate, less noisy. Based on this key observation, we present CURATE (CaUsal gRaph AdapTivE privacy), a DP-CGD framework with adaptive privacy budgeting. In contrast to existing DP-CGD algorithms with uniform privacy budgeting across all iterations, CURATE allows adaptive privacy budgeting by minimizing error probability (for constraint-based), maximizing iterations of the optimization problem (for score-based) while keeping the cumulative leakage bounded. To validate our framework, we present a comprehensive set of experiments on several datasets and show that CURATE achieves higher utility compared to existing DP-CGD algorithms with less privacy-leakage.

Constrained by the lack of model interpretability and a deep understanding of human movement in traditional movement recognition machine learning methods, this study introduces a novel representation learning method based on causal inference to better understand human joint dynamics and complex behaviors. We propose a two-stage framework that combines the Peter-Clark (PC) algorithm and Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence to identify and quantify causal relationships between joints. Our method effectively captures interactions and produces interpretable, robust representations. Experiments on the EmoPain dataset show that our causal GCN outperforms traditional GCNs in accuracy, F1 score, and recall, especially in detecting protective behaviors. The model is also highly invariant to data scale changes, enhancing its reliability in practical applications. Our approach advances human motion analysis and paves the way for more adaptive intelligent healthcare solutions.

Bayesian networks (BNs) are widely used for modeling complex systems with uncertainty, yet repositories of pre-built BNs remain limited. This paper introduces bnRep, an open-source R package offering a comprehensive collection of documented BNs, facilitating benchmarking, replicability, and education. With over 200 networks from academic publications, bnRep integrates seamlessly with bnlearn and other R packages, providing users with interactive tools for network exploration.

Artificial intelligence models trained through loss minimization have demonstrated significant success, grounded in principles from fields like information theory and statistical physics. This work explores these established connections through the lens of statistical mechanics, starting from first-principles sample concentration behaviors that underpin AI and machine learning. Our development of statistical mechanics for modeling highlights the key role of exponential families, and quantities of statistics, physics, and information theory.

Recently, the application of autonomous driving in open-pit mining has garnered increasing attention for achieving safe and efficient mineral transportation. Compared to urban structured roads, unstructured roads in mining sites have uneven boundaries and lack clearly defined lane markings. This leads to a lack of sufficient constraint information for predicting the trajectories of other human-driven vehicles, resulting in higher uncertainty in trajectory prediction problems. A method is proposed to predict multiple possible trajectories and their probabilities of the target vehicle. The surrounding environment and historical trajectories of the target vehicle are encoded as a rasterized image, which is used as input to our deep convolutional network to predict the target vehicle's multiple possible trajectories. The method underwent offline testing on a dataset specifically designed for autonomous driving scenarios in open-pit mining and was compared and evaluated against physics-based method.

The standard paradigm of modeling marked point processes is by parameterizing the intensity function using an attention-based (Transformer-style) architecture. Despite the flexibility of these methods, their inference is based on the computationally intensive thinning algorithm. In this work, we propose a framework where the advantages of the attention-based architecture are maintained and the limitation of the thinning algorithm is circumvented. The framework depends on modeling the conditional distribution of inter-event times with a mixture of log-normals satisfying a Markov property and the conditional probability mass function for the marks with a Transformer-based architecture. The proposed method attains state-of-the-art performance in predicting the next event of a sequence given its history. The experiments also reveal the efficacy of the methods that do not rely on the thinning algorithm during inference over the ones they do. Finally, we test our method on the challenging long-horizon prediction task and find that it outperforms a baseline developed specifically for tackling this task; importantly, inference requires just a fraction of time compared to the thinning-based baseline.

The current scenario of IoT is witnessing a constant increase on the volume of data, which is generated in constant stream, calling for novel architectural and logical solutions for processing it. Moving the data handling towards the edge of the computing spectrum guarantees better distribution of load and, in principle, lower latency and better privacy. However, managing such a structure is complex, especially when requirements, also referred to Service Level Objectives (SLOs), specified by applications' owners and infrastructure managers need to be ensured. Despite the rich number of proposals of Machine Learning (ML) based management solutions, researchers and practitioners yet struggle to guarantee long-term prediction and control, and accurate troubleshooting. Therefore, we present a novel ML paradigm based on Active Inference (AIF) -- a concept from neuroscience that describes how the brain constantly predicts and evaluates sensory information to decrease long-term surprise. We implement it and evaluate it in a heterogeneous real stream processing use case, where an AIF-based agent continuously optimizes the fulfillment of three SLOs for three autonomous driving services running on multiple devices. The agent used causal knowledge to gradually develop an understanding of how its actions are related to requirements fulfillment, and which configurations to favor. Through this approach, our agent requires up to thirty iterations to converge to the optimal solution, showing the capability of offering accurate results in a short amount of time. Furthermore, thanks to AIF and its causal structures, our method guarantees full transparency on the decision making, making the interpretation of the results and the troubleshooting effortless.

Detecting and measuring confounding effects from data is a key challenge in causal inference. Existing methods frequently assume causal sufficiency, disregarding the presence of unobserved confounding variables. Causal sufficiency is both unrealistic and empirically untestable. Additionally, existing methods make strong parametric assumptions about the underlying causal generative process to guarantee the identifiability of confounding variables. Relaxing the causal sufficiency and parametric assumptions and leveraging recent advancements in causal discovery and confounding analysis with non-i.i.d. data, we propose a comprehensive approach for detecting and measuring confounding. We consider various definitions of confounding and introduce tailored methodologies to achieve three objectives: (i) detecting and measuring confounding among a set of variables, (ii) separating observed and unobserved confounding effects, and (iii) understanding the relative strengths of confounding bias between different sets of variables. We present useful properties of a confounding measure and present measures that satisfy those properties. Empirical results support the theoretical analysis.