Safety is a critical aspect of the air transport system given even slight operational anomalies can result in serious consequences. To reduce the chances of aviation safety occurrences, accidents and incidents are reported to establish the root cause, propose safety recommendations etc. However, analysis narratives of the pre-accident events are presented using human-understandable, raw, unstructured, text that a computer system cannot understand. The ability to classify and categorise safety occurrences from their textual narratives would help aviation industry stakeholders make informed safety-critical decisions. To classify and categorise safety occurrences, we applied natural language processing (NLP) and AI (Artificial Intelligence) models to process text narratives. The study aimed to answer the question. How well can the damage level caused to the aircraft in a safety occurrence be inferred from the text narrative using natural language processing. The classification performance of various deep learning models including LSTM, BLSTM, GRU, sRNN, and combinations of these models including LSTM and GRU, BLSTM+GRU, sRNN and LSTM, sRNN and BLSTM, sRNN and GRU, sRNN and BLSTM and GRU, and sRNN and LSTM and GRU was evaluated on a set of 27,000 safety occurrence reports from the NTSB. The results of this study indicate that all models investigated performed competitively well recording an accuracy of over 87.9% which is well above the random guess of 25% for a four-class classification problem. Also, the models recorded high precision, recall, and F1 scores above 80%, 88%, and 85%, respectively. sRNN slightly outperformed other single models in terms of recall (90%) and accuracy (90%) while LSTM reported slightly better performance in terms of precision (87%).

AI models that predict the future behavior of a system (a.k.a. predictive AI models) are central to intelligent decision-making. However, decision-making using predictive AI models often results in suboptimal performance. This is primarily because AI models are typically constructed to best fit the data, and hence to predict the most likely future rather than to enable high-performance decision-making. The hope that such prediction enables high-performance decisions is neither guaranteed in theory nor established in practice. In fact, there is increasing empirical evidence that predictive models must be tailored to decision-making objectives for performance. In this paper, we establish formal (necessary and sufficient) conditions that a predictive model (AI-based or not) must satisfy for a decision-making policy established using that model to be optimal. We then discuss their implications for building predictive AI models for sequential decision-making.

Despite the wide use of $k$-Nearest Neighbors as classification models, their explainability properties remain poorly understood from a theoretical perspective. While nearest neighbors classifiers offer interpretability from a "data perspective", in which the classification of an input vector $\bar{x}$ is explained by identifying the vectors $\bar{v}_1, \ldots, \bar{v}_k$ in the training set that determine the classification of $\bar{x}$, we argue that such explanations can be impractical in high-dimensional applications, where each vector has hundreds or thousands of features and it is not clear what their relative importance is. Hence, we focus on understanding nearest neighbor classifications through a "feature perspective", in which the goal is to identify how the values of the features in $\bar{x}$ affect its classification. Concretely, we study abductive explanations such as "minimum sufficient reasons", which correspond to sets of features in $\bar{x}$ that are enough to guarantee its classification, and "counterfactual explanations" based on the minimum distance feature changes one would have to perform in $\bar{x}$ to change its classification. We present a detailed landscape of positive and negative complexity results for counterfactual and abductive explanations, distinguishing between discrete and continuous feature spaces, and considering the impact of the choice of distance function involved. Finally, we show that despite some negative complexity results, Integer Quadratic Programming and SAT solving allow for computing explanations in practice.

Causal inference has recently gained notable attention across various fields like biology, healthcare, and environmental science, especially within explainable artificial intelligence (xAI) systems, for uncovering the causal relationships among multiple variables and outcomes. Yet, it has not been fully recognized and deployed in the manufacturing systems. In this paper, we introduce an explainable, scalable, and flexible federated Bayesian learning framework, \texttt{xFBCI}, designed to explore causality through treatment effect estimation in distributed manufacturing systems. By leveraging federated Bayesian learning, we efficiently estimate posterior of local parameters to derive the propensity score for each client without accessing local private data. These scores are then used to estimate the treatment effect using propensity score matching (PSM). Through simulations on various datasets and a real-world Electrohydrodynamic (EHD) printing data, we demonstrate that our approach outperforms standard Bayesian causal inference methods and several state-of-the-art federated learning benchmarks.

Deploying artificial intelligence (AI) models on edge devices involves a delicate balance between meeting stringent complexity constraints, such as limited memory and energy resources, and ensuring reliable performance in sensitive decision-making tasks. One way to enhance reliability is through uncertainty quantification via Bayesian inference. This approach, however, typically necessitates maintaining and running multiple models in an ensemble, which may exceed the computational limits of edge devices. This paper introduces a low-complexity methodology to address this challenge by distilling calibration information from a more complex model. In an offline phase, predictive probabilities generated by a high-complexity cloud-based model are leveraged to determine a threshold based on the typical divergence between the cloud and edge models. At run time, this threshold is used to construct credal sets -- ranges of predictive probabilities that are guaranteed, with a user-selected confidence level, to include the predictions of the cloud model. The credal sets are obtained through thresholding of a divergence measure in the simplex of predictive probabilities. Experiments on visual and language tasks demonstrate that the proposed approach, termed Conformalized Distillation for Credal Inference (CD-CI), significantly improves calibration performance compared to low-complexity Bayesian methods, such as Laplace approximation, making it a practical and efficient solution for edge AI deployments.

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), or particle filtering, is widely used in nonlinear state-space systems, but its performance often suffers from poorly approximated proposal and state-transition distributions. This work introduces a differentiable particle filter that leverages the unsupervised variational SMC objective to parameterize the proposal and transition distributions with a neural network, designed to learn from high-dimensional observations. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach outperforms established baselines in tracking the challenging Lorenz attractor from high-dimensional and partial observations. Furthermore, an evidence lower bound based evaluation indicates that our method offers a more accurate representation of the posterior distribution.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) progresses through distinct stages, from early mild cognitive impairment (EMCI) to late mild cognitive impairment (LMCI) and eventually to AD. Accurate identification of these stages, especially distinguishing LMCI from EMCI, is crucial for developing pre-dementia treatments but remains challenging due to subtle and overlapping imaging features. This study proposes a minimal-feature machine learning framework that leverages structural MRI data, focusing on the hippocampus and amygdala as regions of interest. The framework addresses the curse of dimensionality through feature selection, utilizes region-specific voxel information, and implements innovative data organization to enhance classification performance by reducing noise. The methodology integrates dimensionality reduction techniques such as PCA and t-SNE with state-of-the-art classifiers, achieving the highest accuracy of 88.46%. This framework demonstrates the potential for efficient and accurate staging of AD progression while providing valuable insights for clinical applications.

Causal Learning has emerged as a major theme of AI in recent years, promising to use special techniques to reveal the true nature of cause and effect in a number of important domains. We consider the Epistemology of learning and recognizing true cause and effect phenomena. Through thought exercises on the customary use of the word ''cause'', especially in scientific domains, we investigate what, in practice, constitutes a valid causal claim. We recognize the word's uses across scientific domains in disparate form but consistent function within the scientific paradigm. We highlight fundamental distinctions of practice that can be performed in the natural and social sciences, highlight the importance of many systems of interest being open and irreducible and identify the important notion of Hermeneutic knowledge for social science inquiry. We posit that the distinct properties require that definitive causal claims can only come through an agglomeration of consistent evidence across multiple domains and levels of abstraction, such as empirical, physiological, biochemical, etc. We present Cognitive Science as an exemplary multi-disciplinary field providing omnipresent opportunity for such a Research Program, and highlight the main general modes of practice of scientific inquiry that can adequately merge, rather than place as incorrigibly conflictual, multi-domain multi-abstraction scientific practices and language games.

Learning the structure of Bayesian networks from data provides insights into underlying processes and the causal relationships that generate the data, but its usefulness depends on the homogeneity of the data population, a condition often violated in real-world applications. In such cases, using a single network structure for inference can be misleading, as it may not capture sub-population differences. To address this, we propose a novel approach of modelling a mixture of Bayesian networks where component probabilities depend on individual characteristics. Our method identifies both network structures and demographic predictors of sub-population membership, aiding personalised interventions. We evaluate our method through simulations and a youth mental health case study, demonstrating its potential to improve tailored interventions in health, education, and social policy.

The integration of deep learning techniques and physics-driven designs is reforming the way we address inverse problems, in which accurate physical properties are extracted from complex data sets. This is particularly relevant for quantum chromodynamics (QCD), the theory of strong interactions, with its inherent limitations in observational data and demanding computational approaches. This perspective highlights advances and potential of physics-driven learning methods, focusing on predictions of physical quantities towards QCD physics, and drawing connections to machine learning(ML). It is shown that the fusion of ML and physics can lead to more efficient and reliable problem-solving strategies. Key ideas of ML, methodology of embedding physics priors, and generative models as inverse modelling of physical probability distributions are introduced. Specific applications cover first-principle lattice calculations, and QCD physics of hadrons, neutron stars, and heavy-ion collisions. These examples provide a structured and concise overview of how incorporating prior knowledge such as symmetry, continuity and equations into deep learning designs can address diverse inverse problems across different physical sciences.