The successful application of modern machine learning for time series classification is often hampered by limitations in quality and quantity of available training data. To overcome these limitations, available domain expert knowledge in the form of parametrised mechanistic dynamical models can be used whenever it is available and time series observations may be represented as an element from a given class of parametrised dynamical models. This makes the learning process interpretable and allows the modeller to deal with sparsely and irregularly sampled data in a natural way. However, the internal processes of a dynamical model are often only partially observed. This can lead to ambiguity regarding which particular model realization best explains a given time series observation. This problem is well-known in the literature, and a dynamical model with this issue is referred to as structurally unidentifiable. Training a classifier that incorporates knowledge about a structurally unidentifiable dynamical model can negatively influence classification performance. To address this issue, we employ structural identifiability analysis to explicitly relate parameter configurations that are associated with identical system outputs. Using the derived relations in classifier training, we demonstrate that this method significantly improves the classifier's ability to generalize to unseen data on a number of example models from the biomedical domain. This effect is especially pronounced when the number of training instances is limited. Our results demonstrate the importance of accounting for structural identifiability, a topic that has received relatively little attention from the machine learning community.

Simulation-based calibration checking (SBC) refers to the validation of an inference algorithm and model implementation through repeated inference on data simulated from a generative model. In the original and commonly used approach, the generative model uses parameters drawn from the prior, and thus the approach is testing whether the inference works for simulated data generated with parameter values plausible under that prior. This approach is natural and desirable when we want to test whether the inference works for a wide range of datasets we might observe. However, after observing data, we are interested in answering whether the inference works conditional on that particular data. In this paper, we propose posterior SBC and demonstrate how it can be used to validate the inference conditionally on observed data. We illustrate the utility of posterior SBC in three case studies: (1) A simple multilevel model; (2) a model that is governed by differential equations; and (3) a joint integrative neuroscience model which is approximated via amortized Bayesian inference with neural networks.

In this paper, a Convolution-Based Converter (CBC) is proposed to develop a methodology for removing the strong or fixed priors in estimating the probability distribution of targets based on observations in the stochastic process. Traditional approaches, e.g., Markov-based and Gaussian process-based methods, typically leverage observations to estimate targets based on strong or fixed priors (such as Markov properties or Gaussian prior). However, the effectiveness of these methods depends on how well their prior assumptions align with the characteristics of the problem. When the assumed priors are not satisfied, these approaches may perform poorly or even become unusable. To overcome the above limitation, we introduce the Convolution-Based converter (CBC), which implicitly estimates the conditional probability distribution of targets without strong or fixed priors, and directly outputs the expected trajectory of the stochastic process that satisfies the constraints from observations. This approach reduces the dependence on priors, enhancing flexibility and adaptability in modeling stochastic processes when addressing different problems. Experimental results demonstrate that our method outperforms existing baselines across multiple metrics.

Student performance prediction is one of the most important subjects in educational data mining. As a modern technology, machine learning offers powerful capabilities in feature extraction and data modeling, providing essential support for diverse application scenarios, as evidenced by recent studies confirming its effectiveness in educational data mining. However, despite extensive prediction experiments, machine learning methods have not been effectively integrated into practical teaching strategies, hindering their application in modern education. In addition, massive features as input variables for machine learning algorithms often leads to information redundancy, which can negatively impact prediction accuracy. Therefore, how to effectively use machine learning methods to predict student performance and integrate the prediction results with actual teaching scenarios is a worthy research subject. To this end, this study integrates the results of machine learning-based student performance prediction with tiered instruction, aiming to enhance student outcomes in target course, which is significant for the application of educational data mining in contemporary teaching scenarios. Specifically, we collect original educational data and perform feature selection to reduce information redundancy. Then, the performance of five representative machine learning methods is analyzed and discussed with Random Forest showing the best performance. Furthermore, based on the results of the classification of students, tiered instruction is applied accordingly, and different teaching objectives and contents are set for all levels of students. The comparison of teaching outcomes between the control and experimental classes, along with the analysis of questionnaire results, demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed framework.

We introduce a Bayesian framework for measuring spatio-temporal couplings (STCs) in ultra-intense lasers that reconceptualizes what constitutes a 'single-shot' measurement. Moving beyond traditional distinctions between single- and multi-shot devices, our approach provides rigorous criteria for determining when measurements can truly resolve individual laser shots rather than statistical averages. This framework shows that single-shot capability is not an intrinsic device property but emerges from the relationship between measurement precision and inherent parameter variability. Implementing this approach with a new measurement device at the ATLAS-3000 petawatt laser, we provide the first quantitative uncertainty bounds on pulse front tilt and curvature. Notably, we observe that our Bayesian method reduces uncertainty by up to 60% compared to traditional approaches. Through this analysis, we reveal how the interplay between measurement precision and intrinsic system variability defines achievable resolution -- insights that have direct implications for applications where precise control of laser-matter interaction is critical.

In this paper, we investigate the label shift quantification problem. We propose robust estimators of the label distribution which turn out to coincide with the Maximum Likelihood Estimator. We analyze the theoretical aspects and derive deviation bounds for the proposed method, providing optimal guarantees in the well-specified case, along with notable robustness properties against outliers and contamination. Our results provide theoretical validation for empirical observations on the robustness of Maximum Likelihood Label Shift.

Denoising diffusion models have driven significant progress in the field of Bayesian inverse problems. Recent approaches use pre-trained diffusion models as priors to solve a wide range of such problems, only leveraging inference-time compute and thereby eliminating the need to retrain task-specific models on the same dataset. To approximate the posterior of a Bayesian inverse problem, a diffusion model samples from a sequence of intermediate posterior distributions, each with an intractable likelihood function. This work proposes a novel mixture approximation of these intermediate distributions. Since direct gradient-based sampling of these mixtures is infeasible due to intractable terms, we propose a practical method based on Gibbs sampling. We validate our approach through extensive experiments on image inverse problems, utilizing both pixel- and latent-space diffusion priors, as well as on source separation with an audio diffusion model. The code is available at https://www.github.com/badr-moufad/mgdm

This paper introduces Type 2 Tobit Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (TOBART-2). BART can produce accurate individual-specific treatment effect estimates. However, in practice estimates are often biased by sample selection. We extend the Type 2 Tobit sample selection model to account for nonlinearities and model uncertainty by including sums of trees in both the selection and outcome equations. A Dirichlet Process Mixture distribution for the error terms allows for departure from the assumption of bivariate normally distributed errors. Soft trees and a Dirichlet prior on splitting probabilities improve modeling of smooth and sparse data generating processes. We include a simulation study and an application to the RAND Health Insurance Experiment data set.

We propose a novel Bregman descent algorithm for minimizing a convex function that is expressed as the sum of a differentiable part (defined over an open set) and a possibly nonsmooth term. The approach, referred to as the Variable Bregman Majorization-Minimization (VBMM) algorithm, extends the Bregman Proximal Gradient method by allowing the Bregman function used in the divergence to adaptively vary at each iteration, provided it satisfies a majorizing condition on the objective function. This adaptive framework enables the algorithm to approximate the objective more precisely at each iteration, thereby allowing for accelerated convergence compared to the traditional Bregman Proximal Gradient descent. We establish the convergence of the VBMM algorithm to a minimizer under mild assumptions on the family of metrics used. Furthermore, we introduce a novel application of both the Bregman Proximal Gradient method and the VBMM algorithm to the estimation of the multidimensional parameters of a Dirichlet distribution through the maximization of its log-likelihood. Numerical experiments confirm that the VBMM algorithm outperforms existing approaches in terms of convergence speed.

I think the distributed setting and all the subtleties that come with it should have been explored better. I was left wondering about the communication costs of an architecture needed for this to work, and potential issues with that. One obvious question would be, how would the iterate updates at each node be impacted by random noise injected into the w_{js} being passed around in the comms channels and/or random drops / missed updates. The only difference between the convergence discussion in \S4.1 and other works in the literature that use similar machinery seems to be the formulations for the extra constants/iterate weights in the distributed setting. This reduces the novelty/significance of that section somewhat, in my opinion.