Kernel-based conditional independence (KCI) testing is a powerful nonparametric method commonly employed in causal discovery tasks. Despite its flexibility and statistical reliability, cubic computational complexity limits its application to large datasets. To address this computational bottleneck, we propose \textit{FastKCI}, a scalable and parallelizable kernel-based conditional independence test that utilizes a mixture-of-experts approach inspired by embarrassingly parallel inference techniques for Gaussian processes. By partitioning the dataset based on a Gaussian mixture model over the conditioning variables, FastKCI conducts local KCI tests in parallel, aggregating the results using an importance-weighted sampling scheme. Experiments on synthetic datasets and benchmarks on real-world production data validate that FastKCI maintains the statistical power of the original KCI test while achieving substantial computational speedups. FastKCI thus represents a practical and efficient solution for conditional independence testing in causal inference on large-scale data.

Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) are well-established as a principled approach to probabilistic unsupervised learning with neural networks. Typically, an encoder network defines the parameters of a Gaussian distributed latent space from which we can sample and pass realizations to a decoder network. This model is trained to reconstruct its inputs and is optimized through the evidence lower bound. In recent years, discrete latent spaces have grown in popularity, suggesting that they may be a natural choice for many data modalities (e.g. text). In this tutorial, we provide a rigorous, yet practical, introduction to discrete variational autoencoders -- specifically, VAEs in which the latent space is made up of latent variables that follow a categorical distribution. We assume only a basic mathematical background with which we carefully derive each step from first principles. From there, we develop a concrete training recipe and provide an example implementation, hosted at https://github.com/alanjeffares/discreteVAE.

Unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA) for time series data remains a critical challenge in deep learning, with traditional pseudo-labeling strategies failing to capture temporal patterns and channel-wise shifts between domains, producing sub-optimal pseudo-labels. As such, we introduce TransPL, a novel approach that addresses these limitations by modeling the joint distribution $P(\mathbf{X}, y)$ of the source domain through code transition matrices, where the codes are derived from vector quantization (VQ) of time series patches. Our method constructs class- and channel-wise code transition matrices from the source domain and employs Bayes' rule for target domain adaptation, generating pseudo-labels based on channel-wise weighted class-conditional likelihoods. TransPL offers three key advantages: explicit modeling of temporal transitions and channel-wise shifts between different domains, versatility towards different UDA scenarios (e.g., weakly-supervised UDA), and explainable pseudo-label generation. We validate TransPL's effectiveness through extensive analysis on four time series UDA benchmarks and confirm that it consistently outperforms state-of-the-art pseudo-labeling methods by a strong margin (6.1% accuracy improvement, 4.9% F1 improvement), while providing interpretable insights into the domain adaptation process through its learned code transition matrices.

In industrial automation, radar is a critical sensor in machine perception. However, the angular resolution of radar is inherently limited by the Rayleigh criterion, which depends on both the radar's operating wavelength and the effective aperture of its antenna array.To overcome these hardware-imposed limitations, recent neural network-based methods have leveraged high-resolution LiDAR data, paired with radar measurements, during training to enhance radar point cloud resolution. While effective, these approaches require extensive paired datasets, which are costly to acquire and prone to calibration error. These challenges motivate the need for methods that can improve radar resolution without relying on paired high-resolution ground-truth data. Here, we introduce an unsupervised radar points enhancement algorithm that employs an arbitrary LiDAR-guided diffusion model as a prior without the need for paired training data. Specifically, our approach formulates radar angle estimation recovery as an inverse problem and incorporates prior knowledge through a diffusion model with arbitrary LiDAR domain knowledge. Experimental results demonstrate that our method attains high fidelity and low noise performance compared to traditional regularization techniques. Additionally, compared to paired training methods, it not only achieves comparable performance but also offers improved generalization capability. To our knowledge, this is the first approach that enhances radar points output by integrating prior knowledge via a diffusion model rather than relying on paired training data. Our code is available at https://github.com/yyxr75/RadarINV.

In many scientific and industrial applications, we are given a handful of instances (a 'small ensemble') of a spatially distributed quantity (a 'field') but would like to acquire many more. For example, a large ensemble of global temperature sensitivity fields from a climate model can help farmers, insurers, and governments plan appropriately. When acquiring more data is prohibitively expensive -- as is the case with climate models -- statistical emulation offers an efficient alternative for simulating synthetic yet realistic fields. However, parameter inference using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is computationally prohibitive, especially for large, non-stationary fields. Thus, many recent works train neural networks to estimate parameters given spatial fields as input, sidestepping MLE completely. In this work we focus on a popular class of parametric, spatially autoregressive (SAR) models. We make a simple yet impactful observation; because the SAR parameters can be arranged on a regular grid, both inputs (spatial fields) and outputs (model parameters) can be viewed as images. Using this insight, we demonstrate that image-to-image (I2I) networks enable faster and more accurate parameter estimation for a class of non-stationary SAR models with unprecedented complexity.

TV customers today face many choices from many live channels and on-demand services. Providing a personalised experience that saves customers time when discovering content is essential for TV providers. However, a reliable understanding of their behaviour and preferences is key. When creating personalised recommendations for TV, the biggest challenge is understanding viewing behaviour within households when multiple people are watching. The objective is to detect and combine individual profiles to make better-personalised recommendations for group viewing. Our challenge is that we have little explicit information about who is watching the devices at any time (individuals or groups). Also, we do not have a way to combine more than one individual profile to make better recommendations for group viewing. We propose a novel framework using a Gaussian mixture model averaging to obtain point estimates for the number of household TV profiles and a Bayesian random walk model to introduce uncertainty. We applied our approach using data from real customers whose TV-watching data totalled approximately half a million observations. Our results indicate that combining our framework with the selected features provides a means to estimate the number of household TV profiles and their characteristics, including shifts over time and quantification of uncertainty.

--The recovery of block-sparse signals with unknown structural patterns remains a fundamental challenge in structured sparse signal reconstruction. By proposing a variance transformation framework, this paper unifies existing pattern-based block sparse Bayesian learning methods, and introduces a novel space power prior based on undirected graph models to adaptively capture the unknown patterns of block-sparse signals. By combining the EM algorithm with high-order equation root-solving, we develop a new structured sparse Bayesian learning method, SPP-SBL, which effectively addresses the open problem of space coupling parameter estimation in pattern-based methods. We further demonstrate that learning the relative values of space coupling parameters is key to capturing unknown block-sparse patterns and improving recovery accuracy. Experiments validate that SPP-SBL successfully recovers various challenging structured sparse signals (e.g., chain-structured signals and multi-pattern sparse signals) and real-world multi-modal structured sparse signals (images, audio), showing significant advantages in recovery accuracy across multiple metrics. Index T erms --Compressed sensing, Space-Power prior, block sparsity, sparse Bayesian learning, expectation-maximization. P ARSE recovery through Compressed Sensing (CS) has garnered significant attention due to its robust theoretical foundation and wide-ranging applications [1], particularly for its efficacy in reconstructing sparse vectors from a substantially reduced number of linear measurements.

We study the classical binary classification problem for hypothesis spaces of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) with ReLU activation under Tsybakov's low-noise condition with exponent $q>0$, and its limit-case $q\to\infty$ which we refer to as the "hard-margin condition". We show that DNNs which minimize the empirical risk with square loss surrogate and $\ell_p$ penalty can achieve finite-sample excess risk bounds of order $\mathcal{O}\left(n^{-α}\right)$ for arbitrarily large $α>0$ under the hard-margin condition, provided that the regression function $η$ is sufficiently smooth. The proof relies on a novel decomposition of the excess risk which might be of independent interest.

Censored response variables--where outcomes are only partially observed due to known bounds--arise in numerous scientific domains and present serious challenges for regression analysis. The Tobit model, a classical solution for handling left-censoring, has been widely used in economics and beyond. However, with the increasing prevalence of high-dimensional data, where the number of covariates exceeds the sample size, traditional Tobit methods become inadequate. While frequentist approaches for high-dimensional Tobit regression have recently been developed, notably through Lasso-based estimators, the Bayesian literature remains sparse and lacks theoretical guarantees. In this work, we propose a novel Bayesian framework for high-dimensional Tobit regression that addresses both censoring and sparsity. Our method leverages the Horseshoe prior to induce shrinkage and employs a data augmentation strategy to facilitate efficient posterior computation via Gibbs sampling. We establish posterior consistency and derive concentration rates under sparsity, providing the first theoretical results for Bayesian Tobit models in high dimensions. Numerical experiments show that our approach outperforms favorably with the recent Lasso-Tobit method. Our method is implemented in the R package tobitbayes, which can be found on Github.

Network interference occurs when treatments assigned to some units affect the outcomes of others. Traditional approaches often assume that the observed network correctly specifies the interference structure. However, in practice, researchers frequently only have access to proxy measurements of the interference network due to limitations in data collection or potential mismatches between measured networks and actual interference pathways. In this paper, we introduce a framework for estimating causal effects when only proxy networks are available. Our approach leverages a structural causal model that accommodates diverse proxy types, including noisy measurements, multiple data sources, and multilayer networks, and defines causal effects as interventions on population-level treatments. Since the true interference network is latent, estimation poses significant challenges. To overcome them, we develop a Bayesian inference framework. We propose a Block Gibbs sampler with Locally Informed Proposals to update the latent network, thereby efficiently exploring the high-dimensional posterior space composed of both discrete and continuous parameters. We illustrate the performance of our method through numerical experiments, demonstrating its accuracy in recovering causal effects even when only proxies of the interference network are available.