While offering a principled framework for uncertainty quantification in deep learning, the employment of Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) is still constrained by their increased computational requirements and the convergence difficulties when training very deep, state-of-the-art architectures. In this work, we reinterpret weight-sharing quantization techniques from a stochastic perspective in the context of training and inference with Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs). Specifically, we leverage 2D adaptive Gaussian distributions, Wasserstein distance estimations, and alpha blending to encode the stochastic behaviour of a BNN in a lower dimensional, soft Gaussian representation. Through extensive empirical investigation, we demonstrate that our approach significantly reduces the computational overhead inherent in Bayesian learning by several orders of magnitude, enabling the efficient Bayesian training of large-scale models, such as ResNet-101 and Vision Transformer (VIT). On various computer vision benchmarks including CIFAR10, CIFAR100, and ImageNet1k. Our approach compresses model parameters by approximately 50x and reduces model size by 75, while achieving accuracy and uncertainty estimations comparable to the state-of-the-art.

The proliferation of Large Language Models (LLMs) in late 2022 has impacted academic writing, threatening credibility, and causing institutional uncertainty. We seek to determine the degree to which LLMs are used to generate critical text as opposed to being used for editing, such as checking for grammar errors or inappropriate phrasing. In our study, we analyze arXiv papers for stylistic segmentation, which we measure by varying a PELT threshold against a Bayesian classifier trained on GPT-regenerated text. We find that LLM-attributed language is not predictive of stylistic segmentation, suggesting that when authors use LLMs, they do so uniformly, reducing the risk of hallucinations being introduced into academic preprints.

Survival analysis, which estimates the probability of event occurrence over time from censored data, is fundamental in numerous real-world applications, particularly in high-stakes domains such as healthcare and risk assessment. Despite advances in numerous survival models, quantifying the uncertainty of predictions from these models remains underexplored and challenging. The lack of reliable uncertainty quantification limits the interpretability and trustworthiness of survival models, hindering their adoption in clinical decision-making and other sensitive applications. To bridge this gap, in this work, we introduce SurvUnc, a novel meta-model based framework for post-hoc uncertainty quantification for survival models. SurvUnc introduces an anchor-based learning strategy that integrates concordance knowledge into meta-model optimization, leveraging pairwise ranking performance to estimate uncertainty effectively. Notably, our framework is model-agnostic, ensuring compatibility with any survival model without requiring modifications to its architecture or access to its internal parameters. Especially, we design a comprehensive evaluation pipeline tailored to this critical yet overlooked problem. Through extensive experiments on four publicly available benchmarking datasets and five representative survival models, we demonstrate the superiority of SurvUnc across multiple evaluation scenarios, including selective prediction, misprediction detection, and out-of-domain detection. Our results highlight the effectiveness of SurvUnc in enhancing model interpretability and reliability, paving the way for more trustworthy survival predictions in real-world applications.

The power prior is a class of informative priors designed to incorporate historical data alongside current data in a Bayesian framework. It includes a power parameter that controls the influence of historical data, providing flexibility and adaptability. A key property of the power prior is that the resulting posterior minimizes a linear combination of KL divergences between two pseudo-posterior distributions: one ignoring historical data and the other fully incorporating it. We extend this framework by identifying the posterior distribution as the minimizer of a linear combination of Amari's $α$-divergence, a generalization of KL divergence. We show that this generalization can lead to improved performance by allowing for the data to adapt to appropriate choices of the $α$ parameter. Theoretical properties of this generalized power posterior are established, including behavior as a generalized geodesic on the Riemannian manifold of probability distributions, offering novel insights into its geometric interpretation.

We study the problem of estimating a distribution over a finite alphabet from an i.i.d. sample, with accuracy measured in relative entropy (Kullback-Leibler divergence). While optimal expected risk bounds are known, high-probability guarantees remain less well-understood. First, we analyze the classical Laplace (add-one) estimator, obtaining matching upper and lower bounds on its performance and showing its optimality among confidence-independent estimators. We then characterize the minimax-optimal high-probability risk, which is attained via a simple confidence-dependent smoothing technique. Interestingly, the optimal non-asymptotic risk exhibits an additional logarithmic factor over the ideal asymptotic risk. Next, motivated by scenarios where the alphabet exceeds the sample size, we investigate methods that adapt to the sparsity of the distribution at hand. We introduce an estimator using data-dependent smoothing, for which we establish a high-probability risk bound depending on two effective sparsity parameters. As part of the analysis, we also derive a sharp high-probability upper bound on the missing mass.

Label shift adaptation aims to recover target class priors when the labelled source distribution $P$ and the unlabelled target distribution $Q$ share $P(X \mid Y) = Q(X \mid Y)$ but $P(Y) \neq Q(Y)$. Classical black-box shift estimators invert an empirical confusion matrix of a frozen classifier, producing a brittle point estimate that ignores sampling noise and similarity among classes. We present Graph-Smoothed Bayesian BBSE (GS-B$^3$SE), a fully probabilistic alternative that places Laplacian-Gaussian priors on both target log-priors and confusion-matrix columns, tying them together on a label-similarity graph. The resulting posterior is tractable with HMC or a fast block Newton-CG scheme. We prove identifiability, $N^{-1/2}$ contraction, variance bounds that shrink with the graph's algebraic connectivity, and robustness to Laplacian misspecification. We also reinterpret GS-B$^3$SE through information geometry, showing that it generalizes existing shift estimators.

We address the problem of incremental sequence classification, where predictions are updated as new elements in the sequence are revealed. Drawing on temporal-difference learning from reinforcement learning, we identify a temporal-consistency condition that successive predictions should satisfy. We leverage this condition to develop a novel loss function for training incremental sequence classifiers. Through a concrete example, we demonstrate that optimizing this loss can offer substantial gains in data efficiency. We apply our method to text classification tasks and show that it improves predictive accuracy over competing approaches on several benchmark datasets. We further evaluate our approach on the task of verifying large language model generations for correctness in grade-school math problems. Our results show that models trained with our method are better able to distinguish promising generations from unpromising ones after observing only a few tokens.

We explore the use of conformal prediction to provide statistical uncertainty guarantees for runway detection in vision-based landing systems (VLS). Using fine-tuned YOLOv5 and YOLOv6 models on aerial imagery, we apply conformal prediction to quantify localization reliability under user-defined risk levels. We also introduce Conformal mean Average Precision (C-mAP), a novel metric aligning object detection performance with conformal guarantees. Our results show that conformal prediction can improve the reliability of runway detection by quantifying uncertainty in a statistically sound way, increasing safety on-board and paving the way for certification of ML system in the aerospace domain.

Asymmetric, non-Gaussian probability distributions are often observed in the analysis of natural and engineering datasets. The lognormal distribution is a standard model for data with skewed frequency histograms and fat tails. However, the lognormal law severely restricts the asymptotic dependence of the probability density and the hazard function for high values. Herein we present a family of three-parameter non-Gaussian probability density functions that are based on generalized kappa-exponential and kappa-logarithm functions and investigate its mathematical properties. These kappa-lognormal densities represent continuous deformations of the lognormal with lighter right tails, controlled by the parameter kappa. In addition, bimodal distributions are obtained for certain parameter combinations. We derive closed-form analytic expressions for the main statistical functions of the kappa-lognormal distribution. For the moments, we derive bounds that are based on hypergeometric functions as well as series expansions. Explicit expressions for the gradient and Hessian of the negative log-likelihood are obtained to facilitate numerical maximum-likelihood estimates of the kappa-lognormal parameters from data. We also formulate a joint probability density function for kappa-lognormal stochastic processes by applying Jacobi's multivariate theorem to a latent Gaussian process. Estimation of the kappa-lognormal distribution based on synthetic and real data is explored. Furthermore, we investigate applications of kappa-lognormal processes with different covariance kernels in time series forecasting and spatial interpolation using warped Gaussian process regression. Our results are of practical interest for modeling skewed distributions in various scientific and engineering fields.

In electromyogram (EMG)-based motion recognition, a subject-specific classifier is typically trained with sufficient labeled data. However, this process demands extensive data collection over extended periods, burdening the subject. To address this, utilizing information from pre-training on multiple subjects for the training of the target subject could be beneficial. This paper proposes an inter-subject variance transfer learning method based on a Bayesian approach. This method is founded on the simple hypothesis that while the means of EMG features vary greatly across subjects, their variances may exhibit similar patterns. Our approach transfers variance information, acquired through pre-training on multiple source subjects, to a target subject within a Bayesian updating framework, thereby allowing accurate classification using limited target calibration data. A coefficient was also introduced to adjust the amount of information transferred for efficient transfer learning. Experimental evaluations using two EMG datasets demonstrated the effectiveness of our variance transfer strategy and its superiority compared to existing methods.