Transformers have exhibited exceptional capabilities in sequence modeling tasks, leveraging self-attention and in-context learning. Critical to this success are induction heads, attention circuits that enable copying tokens based on their previous occurrences. In this work, we introduce a novel framework that showcases transformers' ability to dynamically handle causal structures. Existing works rely on Markov Chains to study the formation of induction heads, revealing how transformers capture causal dependencies and learn transition probabilities in-context. However, they rely on a fixed causal structure that fails to capture the complexity of natural languages, where the relationship between tokens dynamically changes with context. To this end, our framework varies the causal structure through interleaved Markov chains with different lags while keeping the transition probabilities fixed. This setting unveils the formation of Selective Induction Heads, a new circuit that endows transformers with the ability to select the correct causal structure in-context. We empirically demonstrate that transformers learn this mechanism to predict the next token by identifying the correct lag and copying the corresponding token from the past. We provide a detailed construction of a 3-layer transformer to implement the selective induction head, and a theoretical analysis proving that this mechanism asymptotically converges to the maximum likelihood solution. Our findings advance the understanding of how transformers select causal structures, providing new insights into their functioning and interpretability.

Deep neural networks have transformed machine learning, excelling in tasks such as image classification and natural language processing through hierarchical feature learning [1]. However, traditional neurons, which compute deterministic weighted sums followed by nonlinear activations (e.g., ReLU, sigmoid), struggle to model uncertainty or multimodal distributions prevalent in real-world data. This limitation has historically been addressed by probabilistic graphical models, such as Bayesian Networks [2] and Markov Random Fields [3], which offer robust frameworks for uncertainty quantification and complex dependency modeling [4]. These models provide a strong conceptual foundation, but often lack the deep hierarchical feature learning capabilities of modern neural networks. A key research focus has therefore been on bridging the gap between these two paradigms. This has led to approaches that incorporate the probabilistic principles of graphical models directly into deep learning architectures. For example, Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) embed uncertainty into network weights [5], while Probabilistic Circuits (PCs), including Sum-Product Networks (SPNs) [7, 8, 9], are deep probabilistic models that build on a formal probabilistic structure, fusing the representational power of graphical models with the hierarchical feature learning of neural networks. In contrast, this paper introduces a novel approach by embedding a univariate Gaussian Mixture Model (uGMM) directly into the network's computational units, enabling each neuron to represent 1

Sparse regression problems, where the goal is to identify a small set of relevant predictors, often require modeling not only main effects but also meaningful interactions through other variables. While the pliable lasso has emerged as a powerful frequentist tool for modeling such interactions under strong heredity constraints, it lacks a natural framework for uncertainty quantification and incorporation of prior knowledge. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian pliable lasso that extends this approach by placing sparsity-inducing priors, such as the horseshoe, on both main and interaction effects. The hierarchical prior structure enforces heredity constraints while adaptively shrinking irrelevant coefficients and allowing important effects to persist. We extend this framework to Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) and develop a tailored approach to handle missing responses. To facilitate posterior inference, we develop an efficient Gibbs sampling algorithm based on a reparameterization of the horseshoe prior. Our Bayesian framework yields sparse, interpretable interaction structures, and principled measures of uncertainty. Through simulations and real-data studies, we demonstrate its advantages over existing methods in recovering complex interaction patterns under both complete and incomplete data. Our method is implemented in the package \texttt{hspliable} available on Github.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Working Party on Nuclear Criticality Safety (WPNCS) proposed a benchmark exercise to assess the performance of current nuclear data adjustment techniques applied to nonlinear applications and experiments with low correlation to applications. This work introduces Bayesian Inverse Uncertainty Quantification (IUQ) as a method for nuclear data adjustments in this benchmark, and compares IUQ to the more traditional methods of Generalized Linear Least Squares (GLLS) and Monte Carlo Bayes (MOCABA). Posterior predictions from IUQ showed agreement with GLLS and MOCABA for linear applications. When comparing GLLS, MOCABA, and IUQ posterior predictions to computed model responses using adjusted parameters, we observe that GLLS predictions fail to replicate computed response distributions for nonlinear applications, while MOCABA shows near agreement, and IUQ uses computed model responses directly. We also discuss observations on why experiments with low correlation to applications can be informative to nuclear data adjustments and identify some properties useful in selecting experiments for inclusion in nuclear data adjustment. Performance in this benchmark indicates potential for Bayesian IUQ in nuclear data adjustments.

Causal relationships play a fundamental role in understanding the world around us. The ability to identify and understand cause-effect relationships is critical to making informed decisions, predicting outcomes, and developing effective strategies. However, deciphering causal relationships from observational data is a difficult task, as correlations alone may not provide definitive evidence of causality. In recent years, the field of machine learning (ML) has emerged as a powerful tool, offering new opportunities for uncovering hidden causal mechanisms and better understanding complex systems. In this work, we address the issue of detecting the intrinsic causal links of a large class of complex systems in the framework of the response theory in physics. We develop some theoretical ideas put forward by [1], and technically we use state-of-the-art ML techniques to build up models from data. We consider both linear stochastic and non-linear systems. Finally, we compute the asymptotic efficiency of the linear response based causal predictor in a case of large scale Markov process network of linear interactions.

Explainability is a critical tool in helping stakeholders understand robots. In particular, the ability for robots to explain why they have made a particular decision or behaved in a certain way is useful in this regard. Behaviour trees are a popular framework for controlling the decision-making of robots and other software systems, and thus a natural question to ask is whether or not a system driven by a behaviour tree is capable of answering "why" questions. While explainability for behaviour trees has seen some prior attention, no existing methods are capable of generating causal, counterfactual explanations which detail the reasons for robot decisions and behaviour. Therefore, in this work, we introduce a novel approach which automatically generates counterfactual explanations in response to contrastive "why" questions. Our method achieves this by first automatically building a causal model from the structure of the behaviour tree as well as domain knowledge about the state and individual behaviour tree nodes. The resultant causal model is then queried and searched to find a set of diverse counterfactual explanations. We demonstrate that our approach is able to correctly explain the behaviour of a wide range of behaviour tree structures and states. By being able to answer a wide range of causal queries, our approach represents a step towards more transparent, understandable and ultimately trustworthy robotic systems.

We test a new method, which we will abbreviate using the acronym BVM (Basis Vectors Method), in its ability to judge the state changes in images through using language embeddings. We used the MIT-States dataset, containing about 53,000 images, to gather all of our data, which has 225 nouns and 115 adjectives, with each noun having about 9 different adjectives, forming approximately 1000 noun-adjective pairs. For our first experiment, we test our method's ability to determine the state of each noun class separately against other metrics for comparison. These metrics are cosine similarity, dot product, product quantization, binary index, Naive Bayes, and a custom neural network. Among these metrics, we found that our proposed BVM performs the best in classifying the states for each noun. We then perform a second experiment where we try using BVM to determine if it can differentiate adjectives from one another for each adjective separately. We compared the abilities of BVM to differentiate adjectives against the proposed method the MIT-States paper suggests: using a logistic regression model. In the end, we did not find conclusive evidence that our BVM metric could perform better than the logistic regression model at discerning adjectives. Yet, we were able to find evidence for possible improvements to our method; this leads to the chance of increasing our method's accuracy through certain changes in our methodologies.

The Trapped Gyro-Landau Fluid (TGLF) model provides fast, accurate predictions of turbulent transport in tokamaks, but whole device simulations requiring thousands of evaluations remain computationally expensive. Neural network (NN) surrogates offer accelerated inference with fully differentiable approximations that enable gradient-based coupling but typically require large training datasets to capture transport flux variations across plasma conditions, creating significant training burden and limiting applicability to expensive gyrokinetic simulations. We propose \textbf{TGLF-SINN (Spectra-Informed Neural Network)} with three key innovations: (1) principled feature engineering that reduces target prediction range, simplifying the learning task; (2) physics-guided regularization of transport spectra to improve generalization under sparse data; and (3) Bayesian Active Learning (BAL) to strategically select training samples based on model uncertainty, reducing data requirements while maintaining accuracy. Our approach achieves superior performance with significantly less training data. In offline settings, TGLF-SINN reduces logarithmic root mean squared error (LRMSE) by 12. 4\% compared to the current baseline \base. Using only 25\% of the complete dataset with BAL, we achieve LRMSE only 0.0165 higher than \base~and 0.0248 higher than our offline model (0.0583). In downstream flux matching applications, our NN surrogate provides 45x speedup over TGLF while maintaining comparable accuracy, demonstrating potential for training efficient surrogates for higher-fidelity models where data acquisition is costly and sparse.

Calibrating agent-based epidemic models is computationally demanding. We present a supervised machine learning calibrator that learns the inverse mapping from epidemic time series to SIR parameters. A three-layer bidirectional LSTM ingests 60-day incidence together with population size and recovery rate, and outputs transmission probability, contact rate, and R0. Training uses a composite loss with an epidemiology-motivated consistency penalty that encourages R0 \* recovery rate to equal transmission probability \* contact rate. In a 1000-scenario simulation study, we compare the calibrator with Approximate Bayesian Computation (likelihood-free MCMC). The method achieves lower error across all targets (MAE: R0 0.0616 vs 0.275; transmission 0.0715 vs 0.128; contact 1.02 vs 4.24), produces tighter predictive intervals with near nominal coverage, and reduces wall clock time from 77.4 s to 2.35 s per calibration. Although contact rate and transmission probability are partially nonidentifiable, the approach reproduces epidemic curves more faithfully than ABC, enabling fast and practical calibration. We evaluate it on SIR agent based epidemics generated with epiworldR and provide an implementation in R.

Recent advances in neural density estimation have enabled powerful simulation-based inference (SBI) methods that can flexibly approximate Bayesian inference for intractable stochastic models. Although these methods have demonstrated reliable posterior estimation when the simulator accurately represents the underlying data generative process (GDP), recent work has shown that they perform poorly in the presence of model misspecification. This poses a significant problem for their use on real-world problems, due to simulators always misrepresenting the true DGP to a certain degree. In this paper, we introduce robust variational neural posterior estimation (R VNP), a method which addresses the problem of misspecification in amortised SBI by bridging the simulation-to-reality gap using variational inference and error modelling. We test R VNP on multiple benchmark tasks, including using real data from astronomy, and show that it can recover robust posterior inference in a data-driven manner without adopting tunable hyperparameters or priors governing the misspecification.