Directed Networks
Affect Sensing in Metaphorical Phenomena and Dramatic Interaction Context
Zhang, Li (Teesside University)
Metaphorical interpretation and affect detection using context profiles from open-ended text input are challenging in affective language processing field. In this paper, we explore recognition of a few typical affective metaphorical phenomena and context-based affect sensing using the modeling of speakersโ improvisational mood and other participantsโ emotional influence to the speaking character under the improvisation of loose scenarios. The overall updated affect detection module is embedded in an AI agent. The new developments have enabled the AI agent to perform generally better in affect sensing tasks. The work emphasizes the conference themes on affective dialogue processing, human-agent interaction and intelligent user interfaces.
Motor Simulation via Coupled Internal Models Using Sequential Monte Carlo
Dindo, Haris (University of Palermo) | Zambuto, Daniele (University of Palermo) | Pezzulo, Giovanni (Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche - CNR)
We describe a generative Bayesian model for action understanding in which inverse-forward internal model pairs are considered "hypotheses" of plausible action goals that are explored in parallel via an approximate inference mechanism based on sequential Monte Carlo methods. The reenactment of internal model pairs can be considered a form of motor simulation, which supports both perceptual prediction and action understanding at the goal level. However, this procedure is generally considered to be computationally inefficient. We present a model that dynamically reallocates computational resources to more accurate internal models depending on both the available prior information and the prediction error of the inverse-forward models, and which leads to successful action recognition. We present experimental results that test the robustness and efficiency of our model in real-world scenarios.
On Learning Discrete Graphical Models Using Greedy Methods
Jalali, Ali, Johnson, Chris, Ravikumar, Pradeep
In this paper, we address the problem of learning the structure of a pairwise graphical model from samples in a high-dimensional setting. Our first main result studies the sparsistency, or consistency in sparsity pattern recovery, properties of a forward-backward greedy algorithm as applied to general statistical models. As a special case, we then apply this algorithm to learn the structure of a discrete graphical model via neighborhood estimation. As a corollary of our general result, we derive sufficient conditions on the number of samples n, the maximum node-degree d and the problem size p, as well as other conditions on the model parameters, so that the algorithm recovers all the edges with high probability. Our result guarantees graph selection for samples scaling as n = Omega(d^2 log(p)), in contrast to existing convex-optimization based algorithms that require a sample complexity of \Omega(d^3 log(p)). Further, the greedy algorithm only requires a restricted strong convexity condition which is typically milder than irrepresentability assumptions. We corroborate these results using numerical simulations at the end.
Hierarchical Bayesian Models for Latent Attribute Detection in Social Media
Rao, Delip (Johns Hopkins University) | Paul, Michael (Johns Hopkins University) | Fink, Clay (Johns Hopkins University) | Yarowsky, David (Johns Hopkins University) | Oates, Timothy (University of Maryland Baltimore County) | Coppersmith, Glen (JHU Human Language Technology Center of Excellence)
We present several novel minimally-supervised models for detecting latent attributes of social media users, with a focus on ethnicity and gender. Previouswork on ethnicity detection has used coarse-grained widely separated classes of ethnicity and assumed the existence of large amounts of training data such as the US census, simplifying the problem. Instead, we examine content generated by users in addition to name morpho-phonemics to detect ethnicity and gender. Further, weaddress this problem in a challenging setting where the ethnicity classes are more fine grained -- ethnicity classes in Nigeria -- and with very limited training data.
Latent Set Models for Two-Mode Network Data
DuBois, Christopher (University of California, Irvine) | Foulds, James (University of California, Irvine) | Smyth, Padhraic (University of California, Irvine)
Two-mode networks are a natural representation for many kinds of relational data. These networks are bipartite graphs consisting of two distinct sets ("modes") of entities. For example, one can model multiple recipient email data as a two-mode network of (a) individuals and (b) the emails that they send or receive. In this work we present a statistical model for two-mode network data which posits that individuals belong to latent sets and that the members of a particular set tend to co-appear. We show how to infer these latent sets from observed data using a Markov chain Monte Carlo inference algorithm. We apply the model to the Enron email corpus, using it to discover interpretable latent structure as well as evaluating its predictive accuracy on a missing data task. Extensions to the model are discussed that incorporate additional side information such as the email's sender or text content, further improving the accuracy of the model.
Viral Actions: Predicting Video View Counts Using Synchronous Sharing Behaviors
Shamma, David A. (Yahoo! Research) | Yew, Jude (University of Michigan) | Kennedy, Lyndon (Yahoo! Research) | Churchill, Elizabeth F. (Yahoo! Research)
In this article, we present a method for predicting the view count of a YouTube video using a small feature set collected from a synchronous sharing tool. We hypothesize that videos which have a high YouTube view count will exhibit a unique sharing pattern when shared in synchronous environments. Using a one-day sample of 2,188 dyadic sessions from the Yahoo! Zync synchronous sharing tool, we demonstrate how to predict the video's view count on YouTube, specifically if a video has over 10 million views. The prediction model is 95.8% accurate and done with a relatively small training set; only 15% of the videos had more than one session viewing; in effect, the classifier had a precision of 76.4% and a recall of 81%. We describe a prediction model that relies on using implicit social shared viewing behavior such as how many times a video was paused, rewound, or fast-forwarded as well as the duration of the session. Finally, we present some new directions for future virality research and for the design of future social media tools.
Finding Consensus Bayesian Network Structures
Suppose that multiple experts (or learning algorithms) provide us with alternative Bayesian network (BN) structures over a domain, and that we are interested in combining them into a single consensus BN structure. Specifically, we are interested in that the consensus BN structure only represents independences all the given BN structures agree upon and that it has as few parameters associated as possible. In this paper, we prove that there may exist several non-equivalent consensus BN structures and that finding one of them is NP-hard. Thus, we decide to resort to heuristics to find an approximated consensus BN structure. In this paper, we consider the heuristic proposed in \citep{MatzkevichandAbramson1992,MatzkevichandAbramson1993a,MatzkevichandAbramson1993b}. This heuristic builds upon two algorithms, called Methods A and B, for efficiently deriving the minimal directed independence map of a BN structure relative to a given node ordering. Methods A and B are claimed to be correct although no proof is provided (a proof is just sketched). In this paper, we show that Methods A and B are not correct and propose a correction of them.
AI-Based Software Defect Predictors: Applications and Benefits in a Case Study
Misirli, Ayse Tosun (Bogazici University) | Bener, Ayse (Ryerson University) | Kale, Resat (Turkcell Technology)
Software defect prediction aims to reduce software testing efforts by guiding testers through the defect-prone sections of software systems. Defect predictors are widely used in organizations to predict defects in order to save time and effort as an alternative to other techniques such as manual code reviews. The usage of a defect prediction model in a real-life setting is difficult because it requires software metrics and defect data from past projects to predict the defect-proneness of new projects. It is, on the other hand, very practical because it is easy to apply, can detect defects using less time and reduces the testing effort. We have built a learning-based defect prediction model for a telecommunication company in the space of one year. In this study, we have briefly explained our model, presented its pay-off and described how we have implemented the model in the company. Furthermore, we compared the performance of our model with that of another testing strategy applied in a pilot project that implemented a new process called Team Software Process (TSP). Our results show that defect predictors can predict 87 percent of code defects, decrease inspection efforts by 72 percent and hence, reduces post-release defects by 44 percent. Furthermore, they can be used as complementary tools for a new process implementation whose effects on testing activities are limited.
Loss-sensitive Training of Probabilistic Conditional Random Fields
Volkovs, Maksims N., Larochelle, Hugo, Zemel, Richard S.
We consider the problem of training probabilistic conditional random fields (CRFs) in the context of a task where performance is measured using a specific loss function. While maximum likelihood is the most common approach to training CRFs, it ignores the inherent structure of the task's loss function. We describe alternatives to maximum likelihood which take that loss into account. These include a novel adaptation of a loss upper bound from the structured SVMs literature to the CRF context, as well as a new loss-inspired KL divergence objective which relies on the probabilistic nature of CRFs. These loss-sensitive objectives are compared to maximum likelihood using ranking as a benchmark task. This comparison confirms the importance of incorporating loss information in the probabilistic training of CRFs, with the loss-inspired KL outperforming all other objectives.
Predicting Solution Cost with Conditional Probabilities
Lelis, Levi (University of Alberta) | Stern, Roni (Ben Gurion University) | Arfaee, Shahab Jabbari (University of Alberta)
Classical heuristic search algorithms find the solution cost of a problem while finding the path from the start state to a goal state. However, there are applications in which finding the path is not needed. In this paper we propose an algorithm that accurately and efficiently predicts the solution cost of a problem without finding the actual solution. We show empirically that our predictor makes more accurate predictions when compared to the bootstrapped heuristic, which is known to be a very accurate inadmissible heuristic. In addition, we show how our prediction algorithm can be used to enhance heuristic search algorithms. Namely, we use our predictor to calculate a bound for a bounded best-first search algorithm and to tune the w-value of Weighted IDA*. In both cases major search speedups were observed.