We consider two active binary-classification problems with atypical objectives. In the first, active search, our goal is to actively uncover as many members of a given class as possible. In the second, active surveying, our goal is to actively query points to ultimately predict the proportion of a given class. Numerous real-world problems can be framed in these terms, and in either case typical model-based concerns such as generalization error are only of secondary importance. We approach these problems via Bayesian decision theory; after choosing natural utility functions, we derive the optimal policies. We provide three contributions. In addition to introducing the active surveying problem, we extend previous work on active search in two ways. First, we prove a novel theoretical result, that less-myopic approximations to the optimal policy can outperform more-myopic approximations by any arbitrary degree. We then derive bounds that for certain models allow us to reduce (in practice dramatically) the exponential search space required by a naive implementation of the optimal policy, enabling further lookahead while still ensuring that optimal decisions are always made.

Collaborative data consist of ratings relating two distinct sets of objects: users and items. Much of the work with such data focuses on filtering: predicting unknown ratings for pairs of users and items. In this paper we focus on the problem of visualizing the information. Given all of the ratings, our task is to embed all of the users and items as points in the same Euclidean space. We would like to place users near items that they have rated (or would rate) high, and far away from those they would give a low rating. We pose this problem as a real-valued non-linear Bayesian network and employ Markov chain Monte Carlo and expectation maximization to find an embedding. We present a metric by which to judge the quality of a visualization and compare our results to local linear embedding and Eigentaste on three real-world datasets.

Continuous-time Bayesian networks (CTBNs) are graphical representations of multi-component continuous-time Markov processes as directed graphs. The edges in the network represent direct influences among components. The joint rate matrix of the multi-component process is specified by means of conditional rate matrices for each component separately. This paper addresses the situation where some of the components evolve on a time scale that is much shorter compared to the time scale of the other components. In this paper, we prove that in the limit where the separation of scales is infinite, the Markov process converges (in distribution, or weakly) to a reduced, or effective Markov process that only involves the slow components. We also demonstrate that for reasonable separation of scale (an order of magnitude) the reduced process is a good approximation of the marginal process over the slow components. We provide a simple procedure for building a reduced CTBN for this effective process, with conditional rate matrices that can be directly calculated from the original CTBN, and discuss the implications for approximate reasoning in large systems.

We propose a method to identify all the nodes that are relevant to compute all the conditional probability distributions for a given set of nodes. Our method is simple, effcient, consistent, and does not require learning a Bayesian network first. Therefore, our method can be applied to high-dimensional databases, e.g. gene expression databases.

We present a class of inequality constraints on the set of distributions induced by local interventions on variables governed by a causal Bayesian network, in which some of the variables remain unmeasured. We derive bounds on causal effects that are not directly measured in randomized experiments. We derive instrumental inequality type of constraints on nonexperimental distributions. The results have applications in testing causal models with observational or experimental data.

One approach to monitoring a dynamic system relies on decomposition of the system into weakly interacting subsystems. An earlier paper introduced a notion of weak interaction called separability, and showed that it leads to exact propagation of marginals for prediction. This paper addresses two questions left open by the earlier paper: can we define a notion of approximate separability that occurs naturally in practice, and do separability and approximate separability lead to accurate monitoring? The answer to both questions is afirmative. The paper also analyzes the structure of approximately separable decompositions, and provides some explanation as to why these models perform well.

Separable Bayesian Networks, or the Influence Model, are dynamic Bayesian Networks in which the conditional probability distribution can be separated into a function of only the marginal distribution of a node's neighbors, instead of the joint distributions. In terms of modeling, separable networks has rendered possible siginificant reduction in complexity, as the state space is only linear in the number of variables on the network, in contrast to a typical state space which is exponential. In this work, We describe the connection between an arbitrary Conditional Probability Table (CPT) and separable systems using linear algebra. We give an alternate proof on the equivalence of sufficiency and separability. We present a computational method for testing whether a given CPT is separable.

There exist several architectures to solve influence diagrams using local computations, such as the Shenoy-Shafer, the HUGIN, or the Lazy Propagation architectures. They all extend usual variable elimination algorithms thanks to the use of so-called 'potentials'. In this paper, we introduce a new architecture, called the Multi-operator Cluster DAG architecture, which can produce decompositions with an improved constrained induced-width, and therefore induce potentially exponential gains. Its principle is to benefit from the composite nature of influence diagrams, instead of using uniform potentials, in order to better analyze the problem structure.

We present a non-parametric Bayesian approach to structure learning with hidden causes. Previous Bayesian treatments of this problem define a prior over the number of hidden causes and use algorithms such as reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo to move between solutions. In contrast, we assume that the number of hidden causes is unbounded, but only a finite number influence observable variables. This makes it possible to use a Gibbs sampler to approximate the distribution over causal structures. We evaluate the performance of both approaches in discovering hidden causes in simulated data, and use our non-parametric approach to discover hidden causes in a real medical dataset.

Learning from electronic medical records (EMR) is challenging due to their relational nature and the uncertain dependence between a patient's past and future health status. Statistical relational learning is a natural fit for analyzing EMRs but is less adept at handling their inherent latent structure, such as connections between related medications or diseases. One way to capture the latent structure is via a relational clustering of objects. We propose a novel approach that, instead of pre-clustering the objects, performs a demand-driven clustering during learning. We evaluate our algorithm on three real-world tasks where the goal is to use EMRs to predict whether a patient will have an adverse reaction to a medication. We find that our approach is more accurate than performing no clustering, pre-clustering, and using expert-constructed medical heterarchies.