Ultrahigh-dimensional variable selection plays an increasingly important role in contemporary scientific discoveries and statistical research. Among others, Fan and Lv [J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. B Stat. Methodol. 70 (2008) 849-911] propose an independent screening framework by ranking the marginal correlations. They showed that the correlation ranking procedure possesses a sure independence screening property within the context of the linear model with Gaussian covariates and responses. In this paper, we propose a more general version of the independent learning with ranking the maximum marginal likelihood estimates or the maximum marginal likelihood itself in generalized linear models. We show that the proposed methods, with Fan and Lv [J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. B Stat. Methodol. 70 (2008) 849-911] as a very special case, also possess the sure screening property with vanishing false selection rate. The conditions under which the independence learning possesses a sure screening is surprisingly simple. This justifies the applicability of such a simple method in a wide spectrum. We quantify explicitly the extent to which the dimensionality can be reduced by independence screening, which depends on the interactions of the covariance matrix of covariates and true parameters. Simulation studies are used to illustrate the utility of the proposed approaches. In addition, we establish an exponential inequality for the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator which is useful for high-dimensional statistical learning.

Graphical model learning and inference are often performed using Bayesian techniques. In particular, learning is usually performed in two separate steps. First, the graph structure is learned from the data; then the parameters of the model are estimated conditional on that graph structure. While the probability distributions involved in this second step have been studied in depth, the ones used in the first step have not been explored in as much detail. In this paper, we will study the prior and posterior distributions defined over the space of the graph structures for the purpose of learning the structure of a graphical model. In particular, we will provide a characterisation of the behaviour of those distributions as a function of the possible edges of the graph. We will then use the properties resulting from this characterisation to define measures of structural variability for both Bayesian and Markov networks, and we will point out some of their possible applications.

We describe an inference task in which a set of timestamped event observations must be clustered into an unknown number of temporal sequences with independent and varying rates of observations. Various existing approaches to multi-object tracking assume a fixed number of sources and/or a fixed observation rate; we develop an approach to inferring structure in timestamped data produced by a mixture of an unknown and varying number of similar Markov renewal processes, plus independent clutter noise. The inference simultaneously distinguishes signal from noise as well as clustering signal observations into separate source streams. We illustrate the technique via a synthetic experiment as well as an experiment to track a mixture of singing birds.

Random utility theory models an agent's preferences on alternatives by drawing a real-valued score on each alternative (typically independently) from a parameterized distribution, and then ranking the alternatives according to scores. A special case that has received significant attention is the Plackett-Luce model, for which fast inference methods for maximum likelihood estimators are available. This paper develops conditions on general random utility models that enable fast inference within a Bayesian framework through MC-EM, providing concave loglikelihood functions and bounded sets of global maxima solutions. Results on both real-world and simulated data provide support for the scalability of the approach and capability for model selection among general random utility models including Plackett-Luce.

Unsupervised models can provide supplementary soft constraints to help classify new target data under the assumption that similar objects in the target set are more likely to share the same class label. Such models can also help detect possible differences between training and target distributions, which is useful in applications where concept drift may take place. This paper describes a Bayesian framework that takes as input class labels from existing classifiers (designed based on labeled data from the source domain), as well as cluster labels from a cluster ensemble operating solely on the target data to be classified, and yields a consensus labeling of the target data. This framework is particularly useful when the statistics of the target data drift or change from those of the training data. We also show that the proposed framework is privacy-aware and allows performing distributed learning when data/models have sharing restrictions. Experiments show that our framework can yield superior results to those provided by applying classifier ensembles only.

We propose a novel Bayesian approach to solve stochastic optimization problems that involve finding extrema of noisy, nonlinear functions. Previous work has focused on representing possible functions explicitly, which leads to a two-step procedure of first, doing inference over the function space and second, finding the extrema of these functions. Here we skip the representation step and directly model the distribution over extrema. To this end, we devise a non-parametric conjugate prior based on a kernel regressor. The resulting posterior distribution directly captures the uncertainty over the maximum of the unknown function. We illustrate the effectiveness of our model by optimizing a noisy, high-dimensional, non-convex objective function.

LAGE is a systematic framework developed in Java. The motivation of LAGE is to provide a scalable and parallel solution to reconstruct Gene Regulatory Networks (GRNs) from continuous gene expression data for very large amount of genes. The basic idea of our framework is motivated by the philosophy of divideand-conquer. Specifically, LAGE recursively partitions genes into multiple overlapping communities with much smaller sizes, learns intra-community GRNs respectively before merge them altogether. Besides, the complete information of overlapping communities serves as the byproduct, which could be used to mine meaningful functional modules in biological networks.

The improvement of medical care quality is a significant interest for the future years. The fight against nosocomial infections (NI) in the intensive care units (ICU) is a good example. We will focus on a set of observations which reflect the dynamic aspect of the decision, result of the application of a Medical Decision Support System (MDSS). This system has to make dynamic decision on temporal data. We use dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) to model this dynamic process. It is a temporal reasoning within a real-time environment; we are interested in the Dynamic Decision Support Systems in healthcare domain (MDDSS).

Scarcity of training data for word sense disambiguation argues for the use of knowledge-based disambiguation methods, which rely on information available in terminological resources. Unfortunately, these resources are not generally optimized to perform word sense disambiguation. On the other hand, there are many examples of ambiguous biomedical words with context in MEDLINE. However, these examples of ambiguity are not labeled with their proper sense. We propose the integration of the UMLS and MEDLINE to create concept profiles which are used to perform knowledge-based word sense disambiguation. Our results show an accuracy of 0.8770 on a biomedical word sense disambiguation data set; this represents a statistically significant improvement over other knowledge-based methods based on the UMLS on this data set.

We propose to improve the accuracy of prediction market forecasts by using Bayesian networks to constrain probabilities among related questions. Prediction markets are already known to increase forecast accuracy compared to single best estimates. Our own flat prediction market substantially beat a baseline linear opinion pool during the first year. One way to improve performance is by expressing relationships among the questions. Elsewhere we describe work on combinatorial markets. Here we show how to use Bayesian networks within a flat market. The general approach is to decompose a target question (hypothesis) into a set of related variables (causal factors and evidence), when the relationship among the variables is known with some confidence. Then the marginal probabilities for the variables in the Bayes net are updated using the market estimates, with the Bayes net enforcing coherence. This paper describes the overall concept, shows the results for a particular model of the potential Greek exit from the European Union, and describes the team’s future research plan.