We consider the problem of learning a high-dimensional graphical model in which certain hub nodes are highly-connected to many other nodes. Many authors have studied the use of an l1 penalty in order to learn a sparse graph in high-dimensional setting. However, the l1 penalty implicitly assumes that each edge is equally likely and independent of all other edges. We propose a general framework to accommodate more realistic networks with hub nodes, using a convex formulation that involves a row-column overlap norm penalty. We apply this general framework to three widely-used probabilistic graphical models: the Gaussian graphical model, the covariance graph model, and the binary Ising model. An alternating direction method of multipliers algorithm is used to solve the corresponding convex optimization problems. On synthetic data, we demonstrate that our proposed framework outperforms competitors that do not explicitly model hub nodes. We illustrate our proposal on a webpage data set and a gene expression data set.

Structural equation models and Bayesian networks have been widely used to analyze causal relations between continuous variables. In such frameworks, linear acyclic models are typically used to model the datagenerating process of variables. Recently, it was shown that use of non-Gaussianity identifies a causal ordering of variables in a linear acyclic model without using any prior knowledge on the network structure, which is not the case with conventional methods. However, existing estimation methods are based on iterative search algorithms and may not converge to a correct solution in a finite number of steps. In this paper, we propose a new direct method to estimate a causal ordering based on non-Gaussianity. In contrast to the previous methods, our algorithm requires no algorithmic parameters and is guaranteed to converge to the right solution within a small fixed number of steps if the data strictly follows the model.

In recent years a number of methods have been developed for automatically learning the (sparse) connectivity structure of Markov Random Fields. These methods are mostly based on L1-regularized optimization which has a number of disadvantages such as the inability to assess model uncertainty and expensive crossvalidation to find the optimal regularization parameter. Moreover, the model's predictive performance may degrade dramatically with a suboptimal value of the regularization parameter (which is sometimes desirable to induce sparseness). We propose a fully Bayesian approach based on a "spike and slab" prior (similar to L0 regularization) that does not suffer from these shortcomings. We develop an approximate MCMC method combining Langevin dynamics and reversible jump MCMC to conduct inference in this model. Experiments show that the proposed model learns a good combination of the structure and parameter values without the need for separate hyper-parameter tuning. Moreover, the model's predictive performance is much more robust than L1-based methods with hyper-parameter settings that induce highly sparse model structures.

In a variety of disciplines such as social sciences, psychology, medicine and economics, the recorded data are considered to be noisy measurements of latent variables connected by some causal structure. This corresponds to a family of graphical models known as the structural equation model with latent variables. While linear non-Gaussian variants have been well-studied, inference in nonparametric structural equation models is still underdeveloped. We introduce a sparse Gaussian process parameterization that defines a non-linear structure connecting latent variables, unlike common formulations of Gaussian process latent variable models. The sparse parameterization is given a full Bayesian treatment without compromising Markov chain Monte Carlo efficiency. We compare the stability of the sampling procedure and the predictive ability of the model against the current practice.

Graphical Gaussian models have proven to be useful tools for exploring network structures based on multivariate data. Applications to studies of gene expression have generated substantial interest in these models, and resulting recent progress includes the development of fitting methodology involving penalization of the likelihood function. In this paper we advocate the use of the multivariate t and related distributions for more robust inference of graphs. In particular, we demonstrate that penalized likelihood inference combined with an application of the EM algorithm provides a simple and computationally efficient approach to model selection in the t-distribution case.

This paper presents studies on a deterministic annealing algorithm based on quantum annealing for variational Bayes (QAVB) inference, which can be seen as an extension of the simulated annealing for variational Bayes (SAVB) inference. QAVB is as easy as SAVB to implement. Experiments revealed QAVB finds a better local optimum than SAVB in terms of the variational free energy in latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA).

In many applications that require matrix solutions of minimal rank, the underlying cost function is non-convex leading to an intractable, NP-hard optimization problem. Consequently, the convex nuclear norm is frequently used as a surrogate penalty term for matrix rank. The problem is that in many practical scenarios there is no longer any guarantee that we can correctly estimate generative low-rank matrices of interest, theoretical special cases notwithstanding. Consequently, this paper proposes an alternative empirical Bayesian procedure build upon a variational approximation that, unlike the nuclear norm, retains the same globally minimizing point estimate as the rank function under many useful constraints. However, locally minimizing solutions are largely smoothed away via marginalization, allowing the algorithm to succeed when standard convex relaxations completely fail. While the proposed methodology is generally applicable to a wide range of low-rank applications, we focus our attention on the robust principal component analysis problem (RPCA), which involves estimating an unknown low-rank matrix with unknown sparse corruptions. Theoretical and empirical evidence are presented to show that our method is potentially superior to related MAP-based approaches, for which the convex principle component pursuit (PCP) algorithm (Candes et al., 2011) can be viewed as a special case.

We learn multiple hypotheses for related tasks under a latent hierarchical relationship between tasks. We exploit the intuition that for domain adaptation, we wish to share classifier structure, but for multitask learning, we wish to share covariance structure. Our hierarchical model is seen to subsume several previously proposed multitask learning models and performs well on three distinct real-world data sets.

The problem of modeling and predicting spatiotemporal traffic phenomena over an urban road network is important to many traffic applications such as detecting and forecasting congestion hotspots. This paper presents a decentralized data fusion and active sensing (D2FAS) algorithm for mobile sensors to actively explore the road network to gather and assimilate the most informative data for predicting the traffic phenomenon. We analyze the time and communication complexity of D2FAS and demonstrate that it can scale well with a large number of observations and sensors. We provide a theoretical guarantee on its predictive performance to be equivalent to that of a sophisticated centralized sparse approximation for the Gaussian process (GP) model: The computation of such a sparse approximate GP model can thus be parallelized and distributed among the mobile sensors (in a Google-like MapReduce paradigm), thereby achieving efficient and scalable prediction. We also theoretically guarantee its active sensing performance that improves under various practical environmental conditions. Empirical evaluation on real-world urban road network data shows that our D2FAS algorithm is significantly more time-efficient and scalable than state-oftheart centralized algorithms while achieving comparable predictive performance.

There are several well-known justifications for conditioning as the appropriate method for updating a single probability measure, given an observation. However, there is a significant body of work arguing for sets of probability measures, rather than single measures, as a more realistic model of uncertainty. Conditioning still makes sense in this context--we can simply condition each measure in the set individually, then combine the results--and, indeed, it seems to be the preferred updating procedure in the literature. But how justified is conditioning in this richer setting? Here we show, by considering an axiomatic account of conditioning given by van Fraassen, that the single-measure and sets-of-measures cases are very different. We show that van Fraassen's axiomatization for the former case is nowhere near sufficient for updating sets of measures. We give a considerably longer (and not as compelling) list of axioms that together force conditioning in this setting, and describe other update methods that are allowed once any of these axioms is dropped.